The issue that could cost Trump the 2024 campaign


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Joe Biden is the most unpopular president since World War II. And yet, he could win re-election. Because? Because Democrats will continue to demagogue abortion politics and, especially in certain critical swing states like Arizona, the fight over abortion could mean a victory for Joe. If they want to defeat Biden, Republicans must solve this problem.

Nikki Haley could help. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, lost the Republican primary to former President Donald Trump, but she gained considerable support among women and centrist Republicans by taking a moderate stance on abortion. She rightly says that Trump must now win over those voters; He will need the support of his entire party to win, as well as a good percentage of independents. Convincing Haley to become his abortion ambassador, tasked with traveling the country and telling voters the truth about Democrats' extreme and egregious position on the issue, would help her cause.

Democrats, although they deny it, want to allow abortion up to nine months; his position is repugnant and unpopular with most Americans. That's the law they passed in New York; That's what they want at the national level. Haley has credibility on this issue; she could help convince voters that Democrats are the abortion extremists, not Republicans.

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Given the bad blood and smears between the two, Trump will not ask Haley to be his running mate. But unless his former UN ambassador intends to run as a third-party candidate, which she has said she will not do, Haley will presumably want to get involved in Republican politics in the future. Helping the Republican candidate win in November would go a long way toward rebuilding her battered standing in the party.

For both Trump and Haley, a partnership would offer big dividends.

Donald Trump sees the light; He has expressed his support for legalizing abortion up to 16 weeks of pregnancy, making exceptions for rape, incest or the health of the mother. This is the middle ground and is where most of the country falls.

The liberal media, however, won't have it. When news leaked that Trump had adopted this widely accepted position, a Rolling Stone headline read, “Trump Wants to Ban Abortion Nationwide: Report”; others followed his example.

Nikky Haley declared herself “proudly pro-life” throughout her campaign, but managed to craft a tolerant position on abortion that recognized the deeply personal nature of the decision some women make to terminate a pregnancy.

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Haley commented in a Republican debate: “I don't judge anyone for being pro-choice, and I don't want them to judge me for being pro-life.” She urged his rivals: “Let's find consensus… We no longer need to divide America on this issue.”

Haley and Trump recognize reality. They know that pro-choice advocates have won every vote on abortion in every state, including deep red Kansas, and that the issue drives turnout and funding for Democrats. They fear that, even as women are currently abandoning Joe Biden because they don't like his economic or immigration policies, come November those voters will choose the right to decide over the right to life.

How extreme are Democrats? In 2021, 49 Senate Democrats voted in favor of HR 3755, the “Women's Health Protection Act of 2021.” The legislation was intended (as the New York Times reported) to “enshrine the landmark Roe v. Wade precedent into federal law.” The Times did not include a link to the current legislation, perhaps because it is horrible.

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The bill would have allowed abortion up to nine months of pregnancy, when, “in the good faith medical judgment of the treating health care provider, continuation of the pregnancy would pose a risk to the life or health of the pregnant patient.”

Any health care provider, including a “physician, certified nurse-midwife, nurse practitioner, [or] medical assistant” could decide that the mother's life was at risk, even a day before the baby was born. In other words, a woman citing stress could convince a nurse practitioner that she needed to abort a baby at eight months. That position is abhorrent, but it's actually what Democrats in New York took several years ago.

Abortion is likely to be on the ballot in several swing states, including Arizona. Pro-life activists in the state, who have launched a “refuse to sign” movement, probably won't be able to stop abortion advocates from gathering the 400,000 signatures needed to put an abortion petition to a vote. Having abortion on the ballot will make it much, much harder for Donald Trump to win the state.

Nevada, another swing state, may also put an abortion petition on its November ballot. Other states, such as Maryland, could host an abortion vote that would likely not affect the presidential race but could rule out the possibility of popular Gov. Larry Hogan winning a Senate seat for the GOP.

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Anger over the dismantling of Roe v Wade cost the Republican Party what should have been a red wave rebuking an unpopular president in the 2022 midterm elections and has resulted in Republican defeats in several special elections held since.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks as she announces she is suspending her campaign, in Charleston, South Carolina, on March 6, 2024. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)

Last year in Ohio, a state that Donald Trump won by 8 points in 2020, voters approved by a 57% majority an amendment to the state constitution that would protect the right to abortion. In that vote, pro-abortion forces outnumbered pro-life opponents nearly three to one, raising tens of millions of dollars from out-of-state groups. That victory encouraged Democrats to ensure the issue is on the ballot in as many states as possible this fall.

This effort should galvanize Republicans and the Trump campaign. They need to take a position and a message to voters on abortion that will help calm the issue. Haley could help.

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