Former Dodgers All-Star Steve Garvey's quixotic campaign for the U.S. Senate seat once held by the late Dianne Feinstein appears likely to pay off in Tuesday's California primary. Despite his minimalist strategy (Garvey held few public events and did not pay for a single television ad), polls show that the Republican is on the verge of winning one of the first two places in the nonpartisan primaries and advancing to the elections. general.
Political experts say Garvey was driven by two forces: fame from his nearly two decades playing for the Dodgers and San Diego Padres, including the Dodgers' 1981 World Series victory, and a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign by of his opponent, the Democratic favorite. Adam B. Schiff and his allies boosted Garvey's standing among Republican voters.
Schiff (D-Burbank) benefits if Garvey advances to the November election because of California's overwhelming Democratic tilt. Garvey has little chance of winning in a state that hasn't elected a statewide Republican since 2006. Still, his name on the November ballot could help the GOP if he boosts Republicans in tight congressional races. that will be decisive in determining the control of the United States. House of Representatives.
“It has become a vessel of opportunities for Schiff to avoid a tough race in November” against a fellow Democrat, said veteran Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, a former adviser to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. “That said, it's also great for Republicans: They're much better off with a Senate candidate in the fall for down-elections.”
News leaked last spring that Garvey had been meeting with Republican donors and leaders across the state as he mulled a possible Senate run. It took him months to officially announce that he would run for the seat, causing confusion among political experts because of the amount of money needed to be raised to run a statewide campaign in California, home to some of the media markets. most expensive in the country. the nation.
Once Garvey entered the race, he did not mount a traditional campaign. He has not held large rallies or public meetings with voters across the state. He spent no money on television ads, never rented a campaign bus and refused to do endorsement interviews with major California newspapers, including The Times, the San Francisco Chronicle and the Sacramento Bee.
In the final weekend before Election Day, top Democrats running for the Senate seat swept the state: Schiff held seven public events, Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland attended four, and Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine participated in two. While his Democratic opponents took advantage of the last opportunity to court voters, Garvey was at his Palm Desert home, visible to the public only through television ads paid for by Schiff and his supporters.
Garvey's campaign dismissed the idea that he had not made a public commitment and that Schiff's messages helped the Republican's candidacy.
He has been reaching voters through radio shows and local and conservative media outlets. He was mentioned in those forums 4,920 times in the last month, according to a report by Cision, a media monitoring firm. On Friday, Garvey appeared on Fox News, Newsmax, NewsNation and radio shows in Fresno.
“What @AdamSchiff, the experts and insiders don't want to admit and will come up with a million excuses to explain it (my campaign has had momentum since I announced it) and ONLY “Because of my 50-year relationship with Californians and because I care about their problems,” Garvey tweeted Saturday.
Earlier this year, Garvey visited the U.S.-Mexico border, participated in three televised debates and held brief campaign events focused on homelessness in San Diego, Los Angeles and Sacramento.
In those environments, he often couldn't give specific answers to journalists' questions. While outside a homeless shelter in San Diego in January, Garvey was asked about his lack of policy prescriptions for the homeless, an issue that is very important to Californians. “Once we pass primary school, I will begin a deeper dive into the [issues],” he said.
“I haven't been at this for long, so you have to give me a little freedom here.”
Garvey's strategy to date can be seen in a legislative race, not the typical one for a state candidate trying to reach nearly 22 million voters.
The last two prominent Republicans to run for governor and senator in California – Meg Whitman (no longer a member of the GOP) and Carly Fiorina – had extensive campaigns, sometimes approaching presidential-level operations. They held meticulously organized events across the state with well-known Republicans such as the then-governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie and then-Arizona Senator. John McCain flew to California to work with them in 2010.
The state's voter registration has shifted sharply to the left since then, but even lesser-known Republican candidates have swept the state with attention-grabbing campaign tactics. Businessman John Cox stumped for a 1,000-pound Kodiak bear named Tag and an 8-foot ball of trash when he ran in the 2021 gubernatorial recall election. Neel Kashkari vandalized a wind-up toy train and handed out gas cards to protest against the high authorities. fast train during his gubernatorial bid in 2014.
The last two celebrities to run for state office in California (Schwarzenegger in 2003 and 2006 and Caitlyn Jenner in the 2021 recall election) ran much more publicly engaging campaigns than Garvey. Schwarzenegger entered politics after years as a bodybuilding champion and movie star. Jenner gained fame as an Olympic athlete, then known as Bruce Jenner, before becoming a reality television personality and coming out as transgender.
Charles Moran, president of Log Cabin Republicans, the leading Republican LGBTQ+ organization, attributed this to a personality difference between Garvey and his predecessors.
“You can see the difference in the desire to get out,” he said.
A key question is whether Garvey's minimal public engagement with California voters and the mainstream press will change if he reaches the general election, said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine.
“When he appeared in public, he was very general and spoke in very broad terms about most of the topics he was asked about. That's either because he doesn't know the answers or because he and his team recognize the need to strike a balance between attracting support from hardline conservatives and also reaching beyond the base,” Schnur said. “It's starting to look like we'll have eight months to find out.”
