Sacramento officials rejoiced this week when results from a biennial point-in-time count showed that the observed local homeless population had dropped by a whopping 29% — the largest decline city and county leaders had ever seen. seen in more than a decade.
Although the number of homeless people in the region remains higher than five years ago, the county's homeless population fell from 9,278 in 2022 to 6,615. The region also saw a 41% decline in the number of people living outdoors in tents and makeshift shelters, from 6,664 to 3,944.
Officials applauded the progress and expressed optimism in social media posts, news releases and at a news conference.
“There are still too many homeless people for us to claim victory, but maybe homelessness isn't so hard after all,” said Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg. “The 41% reduction in unsheltered homelessness is dramatic and affirms that the strong course we set seven years ago to address this state and national crisis is working.”
“These results are truly outstanding and undoubtedly reflect the city and county of Sacramento's 'all-in' approach to addressing this crisis,” said Lisa Bates, executive director of Sacramento Steps Forward, the nonprofit organization profit that manages the region's continuing care and coordinates the homeless. count and the region's response to homelessness.
But the decline was so dramatic that one of the region's largest nonprofit homeless services providers questioned the accuracy of the count.
“These numbers are incredibly hard to believe and further highlight the trust issues with local government that our guests have consistently expressed over our many years of service,” Loaves and Fishes said in a written statement. “All campus programs have reported serving more guests daily than last year.”
The nonprofit said it saw a 6.4% increase in the number of homeless people seeking services from 2022 to 2023, including a 21% increase in meals served.
Shannon Dominguez-Stevens, director of Maryhouse of Loaves and Fishes, a day shelter for women and children, said she anticipates those numbers will increase even more this year.
“Anecdotally, day by day, we see more people coming to us in crisis situations. [mode], just lost his home and has not been able to find beds in a shelter,” he said. “It's surprising and, frankly, it's absolutely incredible that there has been such a decline in the community. Has no sense”.
Dominguez-Stevens said she was skeptical of Simtech Solutions Inc., the new firm hired by Sacramento Steps Forward to help conduct the count and analyze the data. Previous homeless counts were conducted with the help of Sacramento State University.
He said the new company used a different methodology to collect and analyze data.
Additionally, he said, city and county leaders have increased homeless encampment cleanup activity over the past two years, causing homeless people to distrust government officials and go deeper into hiding.
Dominguez-Stevens is also concerned that the 2024 numbers will negatively impact government funding for housing and supportive services.
The biennial point-in-time homeless count is required by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and is used to help determine how federal funds should be allocated for services. The data also helps government entities like Sacramento County quantify and categorize their homeless populations to determine what services and resources are needed in particular areas.
Dominguez-Stevens said raising concerns about the results was not intended to create tension between the nonprofit and the county.
“But we are an organization that is dedicated to amplifying the voices of people experiencing homelessness in our community,” Dominguez-Stevens said. “And the only way to do that is to keep advocating even if our advocacy causes some to bristle.”
County officials said they anticipated a lot of healthy skepticism when the results were known.
“We double-check, triple-check and look at our methodology,” Bates said. “We went back to our national consultant, went in all directions to see if there was anything here from a methodological standpoint that justified our concern, and that led us to look at other data in our system, and it's those things that led us to conclude that these numbers are maintained.”
Trent Simmons, director of data analytics for Sacramento Steps Forward, said Simtech Solutions was selected because it had performed more than 300 spot counts across the country. He used a census tract methodology compared to the four-mile zones used in previous counts.
“I don't think there's anything wrong with pointing in one direction or another,” he said.
The company also provided a mobile app for volunteers to enter data, which it collected and analyzed. Simmons said there were no reports of major failures and the company's support staff was ready to address any issues.
City and county officials said the decline in homelessness is a reflection of the partnership they established in 2022 after the homeless population soared 67% between 2019 and 2022, surpassing that of San Francisco.
That partnership led both agencies to pool their resources to increase the number of outreach teams, increase bed capacity at shelters and create a coordinated entry system to ensure people access the homeless services they need, they said. the functionaries.
Additionally, officials said rents in the region have fallen 3% and apartment vacancy rates have increased 58% since 2022.
Steinberg said the doubts expressed about the results of this year's homeless count do not diminish the celebratory atmosphere surrounding the results.
“When the numbers increased in 2022, those of us in the trenches accepted that reality,” he said. “Now that we have much more hopeful news, and from the way I have been sized up on this, this is not a declaration of victory, but it does represent amazing progress.”
