The changing language used by the Ukrainian military in 72 hours of daily updates tells the story: “Defensive fighting underway.” “It got significantly worse.” Russian “tactical success.”
You rarely hear kyiv's top brass sound pessimistic, but its steep southward trajectory reflects the dire situation in which Ukraine finds itself. Russia is not just inching forward in one place; she appears to be advancing on four, across the front line.
Moscow knows its timing: In about a month, $61 billion in U.S. military aid will begin to translate into Ukraine having the weapons it has been asking for. Therefore, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be doing everything he can, knowing that the fight will likely only get tougher for his forces next summer.
First, and most worrying, is the northern border near Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city. Russian forces have crossed the border in multiple locations and claim to have captured nine villages. Their advance of 5 to 7 kilometers (3 to 4.5 miles) into Ukraine, in the border area above Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv, is possibly their fastest advance since the early days of the war.
And second, Russia can once again immobilize Ukraine's overstretched military with constant, crippling pressure on Kharkiv, exacting a toll with crude bombing raids on a vast urban center.
Ukraine's rhetorical response has been revealing. For once, its leaders have openly said how bad it is. They seem to be moving commanders around, which is not something you do in the heat of battle without some desperate reason. There is strong criticism of the lack of preparation and fortification of the northern border regions over the past year.
Read the full analysis.
