The last UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies The poll co-sponsored by The Times shows Republican Steve Garvey with a slight lead just days before the primary election for United States senator.
The poll shows a notable increase in support for the former Dodger in a race in which three well-known Democrats are fighting: Reps. Adam B. Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.
It's the latest sign that Garvey could win one of two seats in the general election, which still widely favor the Democratic candidate.
How did Garvey get here? Here is an explanation from the pages of The Times:
Primary elections: good for Garvey
Garvey has the support of 27% of likely voters, Schiff 25% and Porter 19%. Lee (D-Oakland) gets 8%, while 12% of likely voters choose a different candidate and 9% are undecided.
In effect, Garvey and Schiff are tied because the difference is within the poll's margin of error,
The general elections: good for Schiff
Schiff (D-Burbank) would be a heavy favorite to beat Garvey in heavily Democratic California. The poll finds Schiff starting with a significant lead in a two-way matchup, 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. By contrast, a general election between Schiff and Porter (D-Irvine) would start tied, with 4 in 10 voters undecided, according to the poll.
Garvey's Rise
In a deep blue state like California, it might seem like a surprise that a Republican could take the lead in a primary election. But this is something unusual. The Democratic primary is very competitive, with Porter and Schiff leading figures in the party and Lee a popular figure on the left. So they are splitting the Democratic votes in the deeply blue state.
In early polls, Garvey didn't do so well. But recent polls have shown an increase as he becomes more well-known, particularly among Republicans.
Because? Garvey's campaign has spent just $1.4 million as of mid-February, a small fraction of the money raised by Schiff and Porter.
But Garvey has had help… from Schiff.
Rep. Adam B. Schiff, left, former Dodgers star Steve Garvey and Rep. Katie Porter
(Los Angeles Times)
Announcements
Schiff has spent more than $25 million on television advertising, most of which has framed the race as a two-candidate race between him and Garvey. An outside group of Schiff allies has spent an additional roughly $10 million on a similar effort.
“Two outstanding candidates for the Senate. Two very different visions of California,” one narrator intones, later noting that Garvey “is too conservative for California” and voted for Donald Trump twice.
Times political reporter Benjamin Oreskes explained the strategy this way: “While the message will turn off Democratic voters in the state, it may increase the former baseball player's appeal to Republican voters, as it is designed to do. according to two political strategists.”
Representative Adam B. Schiff.
(Jacquelyn Martín / Associated Press)
Porter condemned Schiff's tactics. “We need honest leadership, not political games,” he said.
But political experts were not surprised.
As Times columnist Mark Z. Barabak put it: “The calculation is clear. Schiff hopes to win the Senate seat in the March 5 primary by leading his weakest possible opponent, Garvey, to a runoff in November. Shameless? Sure. Cynical or undemocratic, as some critics claim? Not a bit. …At the end of the day, this is politics. Not cupcakes.
Electoral participation
Another factor that could help Garvey on Tuesday: the low expected voter turnout. Political consultants who track the results of mail-in ballots expect Tuesday's primaries It will be a low participation issue, with an electorate that is significantly older, whiter and more Republican than the state's voting population as a whole.
Reading list
The Times Voter Guide
Your Guide to the US Senate Elections in California: The Race to Succeed Senator Dianne Feinstein
Your Guide to California Senate Candidates' Views on Housing and Homelessness
A Climate Voter's Guide to the California Senate Elections
Endorsements from the Times editorial board (Opinion)
In depth: Senate candidates
Long before he took on Trump, Adam Schiff's pursuit of tough justice defined his career.
From working with the Black Panthers to calling for a ceasefire, Barbara Lee sticks to her beliefs
How Katie Porter leverages her forceful style and single-mother experience in her Senate campaign
Steve Garvey touts “family values” in his Senate bid. Some of his children tell another story.
