The first anti-Super Tuesday primary of the year is likely to be even more consequential than the day's presidential election, which is unlikely to change the trajectory of the Democratic and Republican races.
On Tuesday's ballot are the primaries for the US Senate and governor, but it is the primaries for the US House of Representatives – where Republicans are defending a very narrow majority – that are by far the most important to the balance of power in Washington.
A central element of the fight for control of the camera is California. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the House, and in California alone, the party is targeting seven GOP-held seats. President Joe Biden would have won five of them in 2020 if the current district lines had been in effect, making these so-called crossover districts low-hanging fruit for a party looking to flip seats.
Other states holding primaries for competitive House races on Tuesday include North Carolina and Texas – and, to a lesser extent, Alabama, where redistricting has created a new district that is much more favorable to Democrats. All four states, and Arkansas, also have primaries for seats considered safe for either party, but the nomination contests could serve as key ideological tests.
Only Texas and California will have Senate primaries on Tuesday. Republicans need to pick up one or two seats in the fall – depending on who wins the White House – to gain a majority. The race for Republican Sen. Ted Cruz's seat in Texas has become increasingly important for Senate Democrats in what would otherwise be a difficult landscape for them.
North Carolina will also host the gubernatorial primary on Tuesday in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. The race for open seats is expected to draw widespread attention in this presidential battleground state, which former President Donald Trump won narrowly in 2020 and which Biden hopes to flip.
Catch up with him Key down-ballot primaries to be held on Super Tuesday.
