Half of California registered voters consider the state's budget deficit an “extremely serious” problem, and 57% believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies co-sponsored by Los Angeles Times.
The survey was conducted days before Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled a summary of his $291.5 billion spending plan for the next fiscal year and plans to address his administration's projected $37.9 billion deficit. Grim as it is, Newsom's deficit estimate is more optimistic than a December projection by the Legislative Analyst's Office of a $68 billion budget hole.
“Voters are concerned about this and are going to berate the governor and the Legislature for doing anything about it,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley poll and a longtime California pollster.
The state budget relies heavily on capital gains taxes paid by California's highest earners, making state revenues prone to volatility in the stock market.
Lower-than-expected revenues, delayed tax filing deadlines, and overspending based on inaccurate budget projections created California's bleak financial picture.
The governor's proposed solution includes declaring a budget emergency to draw on the state's rainy-day reserves; cut $8.5 billion in spending on programs that support climate change efforts, housing and other services; and reconsider an increase in the minimum wage for health care workers.
When asked how they think California should make up the shortfall, a majority of voters, 51%, support cuts to government services and 35% want to use the rainy day fund. Among the least popular savings measures, 17% of voters want to borrow from special funds.
The governor and voters appear to be in agreement in their opposition to the tax increase, which only 13% supported in the Berkeley poll.
California Assembly Member Alex Lee (D-San Jose) has proposed raising taxes under his proposed Wealth Tax Act, which would impose a 1.5% tax on net worth over $1 billion. of dollars in 2024 and 2025; and a 1% tax on net worth over $50 million and an additional 0.5% tax on net worth over $1 billion starting in 2026.
The governor has repeatedly rejected the idea of raising state taxes to make up for the shortfall.
Support for taxes on the wealthy has laid the foundation for California's progressive tax structure, which leads to large income swings in the state, DiCamillo said.
Newsom's 46% approval rating in the January poll remains virtually unchanged from late October, when voters gave him historically low marks. The latest poll found that 47% disapprove of his job performance as governor. Newsom will leave office in 2026, so he doesn't have to worry about re-election.
The deficit creates a new political dilemma for Newsom as he will be forced to make difficult spending decisions during budget negotiations with lawmakers over the coming months that could frustrate his allies and voters.
Environmental groups rejected the governor's nearly $3 billion in proposed cuts to climate change programs. Other groups, such as the Association of County Welfare Directors, were concerned about reductions in funding for social services.
Overall, voters showed little confidence in the state's direction: 57% said California is headed in the wrong direction and only a third said things are going well, according to the survey.
The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted online Jan. 4-8 among a random sample of 8,199 registered California voters, including a weighted subsample of 4,470 voters likely to participate in the March 5 primary.
The results were weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so margin of error estimates may be imprecise. The results have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 percentage points in either direction for the full sample.
