What happens in Tuesday's special election in New York will be felt across the political spectrum. A victory by Nassau County Republican legislator Mazi Pilip would be a major jolt to the GOP and give it a playbook to retort (ranting against immigration and Biden) in swing districts and states across the country.
However, a victory for former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi would mark an important step for Democrats in their quest to regain the majority, where a handful of seats held by freshmen New York Republicans will be central to the fall fight for control. from a chamber where the Republican Party has the narrowest majority.
But although President Biden won New York's 3rd Congressional District by 8 points, turnout is expected to be considerably lower in a special election, meaning it's unclear which party will be favored.
Additionally, the Nassau County Republican Party is widely considered a well-organized political machine and could give Pilip a key boost. And the diverse district has a strong contingent of independent voters and working-class Democrats, a mix of voters who have made the Republican Party successful in local elections for years.
Additionally, Pilip, an Ethiopian-born Israeli immigrant who served in the Israel Defense Forces, has presented a unique challenge to Democrats. As a county legislator since 2021, Pilip is little known throughout the district. And despite being the choice of local party leaders to be the Republican candidate in the special election, Pilip is a registered Democrat.
However, in its first ad attacking Pilip, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee labeled her as “MAGA handpicked,” an ad that frustrated Suozzi and her allies, according to multiple sources. The reason: Democratic critics were concerned about giving him credibility with the Republican base and energizing Trump supporters in a low-turnout election.
