Councilwoman Nithya Raman emerged ahead of incumbent Karen Bass in a new poll of the Los Angeles mayoral race, although the poll's director cautioned that it did not give the full picture.
Raman had a commanding lead among five major candidates, with 33% of voters supporting her, while Bass trailed with 17%, according to the survey by the Loyola Marymount University Study Center in Los Angeles.
Leftist Rae Huang came in just behind Bass with nearly 17%, while technology executive Adam Miller had 13% and conservative reality TV star Spencer Pratt had 12%.
Other polls put Bass in first place.
She polled at 20% in an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll, with Raman at just over 9%. In a UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times, Bass got 25% and Raman 17%.
In the Loyola Marymount survey, unlike other surveys, respondents were given brief descriptions of the candidates, including their occupations and political priorities.
Raman was labeled a “progressive Los Angeles City Council member focused on housing affordability, homelessness, and systemic reform,” while Bass was “incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, veteran legislator, focused on homelessness.”
One of Raman's challenges, as a council member representing Los Feliz and Silver Lake, as well as parts of the San Fernando Valley, is spreading name recognition throughout the city, with the June 2 primary election about two months away. She entered the race to challenge Bass, her former ally, at the last minute, hours before the application deadline in early February.
Loyola Marymount's survey of 370 registered voters in Los Angeles was conducted from February 11 to March 16. It did not include an option for “undecided,” while the other two polls showed that significant percentages of voters had not made a decision.
“This survey shows that if you only use positive descriptors and provide context, Raman is ahead,” said Fernando Guerra, director of Loyola Marymount's Los Angeles Studies Center, who conducted the survey.
Guerra said he believes Bass is the favorite, given previous polls.
Bass' campaign took issue with the Loyola Marymount poll.
“In 2022, this same LMU poll had Karen Bass at 16%; she ended up winning the primary with 43%. The only thing more ridiculous than this poll is Spencer Pratt's performance on The Hills,” said Alex Stack, spokesperson for Bass's campaign, referring to Pratt's reality show.
Raman's campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In a post on
Paul Mitchell, vice president of the bipartisan election data firm Political Data Inc., said the survey's sample size was too small to draw conclusions and that the survey was less reliable because it was conducted over the course of more than a month.
He also noted that since many of the candidates are relatively unknown, including the descriptors could have an important effect.
“I'm sure Nithya Raman doesn't have name recognition across the city, but that description is really great,” Mitchell said.
Guerra said he did not include an “undecided” option because he wanted to “force” respondents to give an answer, similar to when they actually vote.
In the Emerson poll, more than 50% of voters were undecided about who to support for mayor. The Berkeley IGS poll showed that about a quarter of voters were undecided.
In the 2022 LMU mayoral poll, released in early March of that year, 42% of respondents chose “undecided/someone else” for mayor.
After Bass, who received 16% support, then-councilman Kevin de Léon came second with 12% in the 2022 poll. Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer, who ended up reaching the runoff election against Bass, received 6% support.
In the June primaries of that year, Bass received 43% of the vote, Caruso nearly 36%, and De Léon about 8%.
This year's LMU poll also asked Los Angeles voters what type of candidate they would prefer for mayor.
Nearly 50% said they preferred a Democratic Socialist, while 25% said they wanted a moderate Democrat, 19% said they wanted a conservative and just 8% said they wanted an establishment Democrat.
“Los Angeles is much more progressive than its elected leaders. This poll reflects that,” Guerra said.
Some disagreed.
Mike Trujillo, a consultant to moderate Democrats who does not represent anyone in the mayoral race, said citywide polls he has conducted show the popularity of the Democratic Socialists of America is much lower.
Raman is a dues-paying member of the Los Angeles chapter of DSA, which endorsed her in her two successful City Council campaigns.
“If you believe this survey, I have bridges to sell you on 1st Street, 6th Street and Alameda Street, and there are no bridges on Alameda,” he said. “The survey was basically from A to Z of Nithya Raman's contact list.”
This year's LMU poll also asked Los Angeles County voters about the gubernatorial race. Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter was leading with about 16%, followed by Republican Steve Hilton with 13% and billionaire Tom Steyer with 12%.
The Berkeley IGS poll showed two Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Hilton, leading the crowded field of gubernatorial candidates by narrow margins among voters statewide, with Democratic support divided among multiple candidates in a left-leaning state.
