For months, the media-industrial complex has produced useless speculation about the risks, much of it generated by the aspiring candidates themselves.
Out of nowhere, these stories would appear: Tom Cotton, an unusually strong candidate! Ben Carson! Byron Donalds! Glenn Youngkin! The people you knew, whatever their qualifications, really had no chance of becoming Donald Trump's running mates.
And then there was the former president himself, who met or campaigned with most of the contenders, watching their television interviews, in a process similar to “The Apprentice.”
One particularly absurd moment came when Axios reported that Nikki Haley was under “active consideration” for vice president. The piece collapsed the next day when Trump issued a statement saying Haley was definitely not being considered, which wasn't a surprise given the resentment between them and her lack of support.
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The final leg of former President Trump's stakes is underway, and only three serious contenders live to tell the tale: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
What made most of the stories shaky is that Trump hadn't made a decision. He now says yes, but he hasn't told the lucky contender. Of course, there's nothing stopping Trump from changing his mind at the last minute, something he's famously prone to doing.
Still, with the investigative process underway and multiple media outlets reporting that it all comes down to one lucky trio, I'm inclined to take those stories more seriously.
Those three are Marco Rubio, JD Vance and Doug Burgum.
Each brings strengths and weaknesses, so such decisions often come down to who Trump feels most comfortable with. Eight years ago, it was Mike Pence, who was the ultimate loyalist until January 6th.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Ohio Senator JD Vance and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are candidates to be Trump's running mate for the 2024 presidential election. (Left: Joe Raedle/Getty Images; Center: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Right: Saúl Martínez/Getty Images)
Rubio, the only one with a national reputation, might seem like a no-brainer. Naming the first Hispanic vice president would obviously excite that community, although it is not a monolith and Cuban Americans would be the most energized. I don't see the constitutional ban against two candidates from the same state being a big deal, since Florida's senator can easily turn the tables on him.
I have interviewed Rubio several times, but most importantly I saw him participate in public meetings in 2016 and he is a charismatic speaker. He is skilled in foreign policy and has long since patched up his relations with Trump over their mutual insults (“con artist”).
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As a good speaker, he would surely make the news, which is also his trap. Trump doesn't like to be overshadowed. From day one, whether openly or not, Rubio would run for president in 2028.
What's more, Rubio has made sure not to campaign for the position. He did not join some of the other hopefuls in showing up to Trump's trial in Manhattan. This, according to some, has made Trump question how much Marco wants the job, but I think it's just a different style.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a top rival to former President Trump in the 2016 primary, is now on his vice presidential short list. However, Rubio must be careful about Trump's prominence that he might try to exploit. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
JD Vance is not a household name and has been a senator for less than two years. He gained public attention for his best-selling book “Hillbilly Elegy,” which received widespread praise (and some criticism) for explaining the type of white voters who would drive Trump's victory. She's also a success story, stemming from a difficult childhood in which his grandmother had to beg for more food from Meals on Wheels.
But Vance opposed the former president in 2016 and jumped on the “Never Trump” (“idiot,” “reprehensible”) bandwagon, a stance he conveniently abandoned when he ran for office.
Vance undoubtedly has the sharpest intellect of the group, the endorsement of Donald Trump Jr., and the most pro-MAGA voting record, but his vision of the revolution differs from Trump's. Two years ago, Vance said in an interview that Trump should “fire all the mid-level bureaucrats, all the administrative state officials, and replace them with our people.” That, of course, would violate civil service rules.
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Vance told New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, who knew him before he became an author: “I was faced with the reality that part of the reason anti-Trump conservatives hated Donald Trump was that he posed a threat.” to a way of doing things. in this country that has been very good for them.
The Ohio senator recently told the Washington Post: “The price of being loved by the establishment is not saying anything interesting.”
And that is precisely the problem. Vance will say a lot of interesting things that will catch the boss's attention.
“Hillbilly Elegy” author and freshman Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, once an ardent Trump opponent, changed his tune once he sought federal office and is now a finalist in the former president's vice presidential race. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Which brings us to Doug Burgum. He is a governor! He has been for eight years. Yes, the governor of the small state of North Dakota, whose three electoral votes Trump would win anyway, but the former president has spent a lot of time with him and really likes him, even though Burgum ran against him early in the election cycle presidential.
On the one hand, he is a tycoon like him, since he sold his technology company two decades ago to Microsoft for a billion dollars. On the other, he is charming, but in an understated way. And Burgum has “the look” – the look worthy of a vice president – and Trump loves to embrace those who look like they came from a casting call.
When I interviewed Burgum a few weeks ago, he downplayed his chances and said he has a dozen private-sector ideas he'd love to try instead of taking a Cabinet position. He deftly answered questions without missing a beat, sometimes with clear phrasing.
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Having attended the Alvin Bragg case and then read the media coverage, “I think they were in a different trial than the one I was in…The Americans have already acquitted Donald Trump,” he told me.
However, as one of my colleagues observed, he's tough enough and new enough to the national game that he still seems like a real person.
This mild-mannered gentleman also knows how to pack a punch. Burgum told FOX's Martha MacCallum last week that “under Joe Biden, we actually live today under a dictatorship where he, you know, is circumventing Congress on immigration policy; he's circumventing Congress on protecting our border; is circumventing Congress on student loan forgiveness; is defying the Supreme Court.” That line of attack has resonated ever since.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum quickly rose to the top of former President Trump's list of vice presidential candidates after his own failed bid for the Republican nomination. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
So by the process of elimination, Burgum creates the least amount of problems for Trump. He has no intention of running for president in four years, he's not going to draw much attention from the president and he has a better chance than I thought he had when we did our interview.
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Now, this is where I must warn that this reasoned analysis could be wrong. Trump could choose Rubio, for example, or he could opt for someone not on the list of three. He could change his mind at the last minute. How would we know, since we have no way of checking who he says he has chosen now?
A word about the timing of the announcement: There are many reasons why a running mate's introduction to the convention has fallen out of favor, and his name is Dan Quayle. The media unloaded on the election of George HW Bush, questioning everything from the senator's intelligence to past ethical issues, and it completely disrupted the convention.
When John McCain chose Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor and mother of hockey, it was a big hit at the convention. It was not until later, when she was questioned by Katie Couric and others, that she was considered inexperienced and unprepared.
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So I suspect Trump will announce his pick just before the Milwaukee convention, letting the story unfold before the spotlight understandably shifts to the nominee.
But again, with Donald Trump anything is possible.
