Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania, while the former president lags in other 'blue wall' states: poll


With less than 47 days until the November election, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied with likely voters in Pennsylvania, which could be the state that decides the race on Election Day.

Trump and Harris each won 49% of likely voters in the Keystone State, according to a new Marist poll.

Additionally, 90% of likely voters who said they had a preference for a candidate also reported strongly supporting that candidate.

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A new poll shows former President Trump and Vice President Harris tied in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

“Pennsylvania is the state that is attracting the most attention from presidential candidates, and rightly so,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “It is the region's biggest prize and the most competitive. Winning Pennsylvania doesn't guarantee the White House, but it is a great achievement.”

In two other so-called “blue wall” states, Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris outperformed Trump in the poll.

The vice president has gained five points in Michigan, 52%, compared to Trump's 47%. However, the margin is very narrow in Wisconsin, where she only beat him by one point, 50% to 49%.

According to Miringoff, “of the three so-called blue wall states, Michigan is the one that has a difference between Harris and Trump.”

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Donald Trump pointing and smiling

Republican presidential candidate former President Trump laughs as he answers a question from a reporter in Howell, Michigan. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

“The Michigan vote is being driven by Trump's high negative ratings, and Vance certainly isn't providing any help to the GOP ticket,” Miringoff added, referring to the 53 percent of likely Michigan voters who view Trump unfavorably.

Inflation was by far the top issue for the majority of Pennsylvanians, at one-third of respondents. Despite being a campaign priority for Democrats nationwide, abortion was the fourth most likely issue to be a top issue for voters, at just 11%. It was surpassed by immigration, at 15%, and preserving democracy, which garnered 27%.

The distribution of major issues among Wisconsin voters was similar to that in Pennsylvania, but in Michigan the issue of preserving democracy emerged as the most important to the largest number of voters.

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Kamala Harris during a campaign event

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Getty Images)

At 30%, Michigan's most likely voters cited it as such. Inflation came in close behind at 29%. Immigration came in next at 15%, while abortion received 10%.

In all three states, there is a gender gap of at least 20 points between Harris and Trump, with men more likely to vote for the former president and women more likely to choose Harris.

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Wisconsin voters in person

People vote in Madison, Wisconsin, during the 2022 election. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

While the gap exists for both, Trump’s problems with women appear to be greater than Harris’s problem with men. Trump’s gap is particularly wide with women in Michigan, where Harris far outpaces him. In the state, the distance between Harris and Trump among likely women voters is 15 points.

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The tight polls come as Trump appears to be losing his lead in two critical states, according to the latest data. Fox News Power RankingsBoth North Carolina and Georgia, once considered Republican strongholds, are now considered swing states in the presidential race.

With these changes in the presidential race according to Fox News Power Rankings, Harris has taken the overall lead in the forecast for the first time.

Get the latest 2024 campaign updates, exclusive interviews and more in our Fox News digital election hub.



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