SAN FRANCISCO— California Democratic Party leaders, along with liberal activists and loyal power brokers, are openly expressing fear that their crowded field of gubernatorial candidates could split the vote and open the door to a surprise Republican victory in November.
Because of those concerns, Democrats lagging at the bottom of the pack are being urged to drop out of the race to ensure the party's political dominance in state elections survives into the 2026 elections.
“California Democrats are prepared to do whatever it takes,” state party Chairman Rusty Hicks told reporters at the California Democratic Party's annual convention on Friday. “We are ready, willing and able to do what is required… to ensure that we have a strong candidate coming out of the primary to do what is required in November.”
Nine prominent Democrats are running to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, compared to two leading Republican candidates, and could split the Democratic electorate enough that the two Republicans could receive the most votes in the June primary and advance to the November election. Under California’s “jungle primary” system, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
Hicks was deferential to Democratic candidates who have long held public office and have compelling personal stories and the experience to take over the state. But he said there is a harsh political reality that a viable candidate needs to raise an enormous amount of money to run a winning campaign in a state of 23.1 million registered voters and some of the most expensive media markets in the country.
The party, its allies and the candidates themselves have a “collective commitment to ensure that we do not see a Republican elected [for governor]Hicks said.
While Hicks and other party leaders did not publicly name candidates who should drop out of the race, among the candidates lagging in the polls is the state superintendent. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Comptroller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderón.
Democratic voters far outnumber registered Republicans in the state, and no Republican has been elected to state office since 2006.
But given the growing field of gubernatorial candidates, the lack of a clear favorite and the state's unique primary system, the race appears to be up for grabs. According to an average of the most recent opinion polls, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, both Republicans, are tied for first place, according to Real Clear Politics. Each received the support of 15.5% of voters. The top Democrat, Rep. Eric Swalwell of Dublin, California, won 12.5% support.
In 2012, Republicans finished first and second in a congressional district race in San Bernardino County, even though Democrats had a solid lead in voter registration. The four Democrats vying for the seat split the vote, opening the door to a victory for Republican Rep. Gary Miller. Pete Aguilar, one of the Democrats who lost in the primary, won that seat in 2014 and has served in Congress since then.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) on Friday dismissed fears that two Republicans would win the top two governorships in June.
“That's not going to happen,” he said in an interview after speaking at a Young Democrats' reception. “And all you need to know about Democrats this year is that we are united. As I say, our diversity is our strength, our unity is our power. And everyone knows the stakes are too high.”
However, the scenario has led a cross-section of the typically fractious party to unite behind the belief that the field must be narrowed, either by choice of candidates or by pressure.
Jodi Hicks, leader of Planned Parenthood's operations in California, said the organization is very focused on congressional elections, but having two Republican candidates for governor “would be nothing short of devastating.”
“We haven't intervened in the governor's race, but we are paying close attention to whether this happens and whether or not we decide to intervene and make sure that doesn't happen,” he said.
Newsom and legislative Democrats have tried to cushion massive cuts to federal funding for reproductive care. A November election with two Republicans on the gubernatorial ballot would eliminate a key partner in Sacramento and could affect turnout in down-ballot congressional and legislative elections.
“A Republican in the top two [race] it would certainly have dire consequences for the midterm battle and for the governor's office,” Jodi Hicks said.
Lorena González, leader of the California Federation of Unions, said her organization's endorsement process begins Tuesday.
“I think we're going to have some pretty honest discussions with the candidates about their individual paths and where they are,” he said. “They're all great candidates, a lot of them are really good people. But it's starting to be that time.”
She expects the field to begin to thin out in the coming days and weeks.
The conversation went beyond party leaders and took place among delegates like Gregory Hutchins, a Riverside academic labor researcher.
“My goal at the convention is not necessarily for the party to unite around a particular candidate, but rather, it is a test to see which candidates have the level of support necessary to mount a successful campaign,” said the 29-year-old, who said he expects to see some candidates drop out after the weekend.
“Am I worried that in the long term [a top-two Republican runoff] could it be a thing? Yes and no,” he said. “I'm not worried that we're not going to solve this problem before the primaries, but I do think we need to start taking seriously the idea of 'We need to solve this problem soon.'”
Not everyone agreed.
Tim Paulson, a San Francisco Democrat who supports Yee, called efforts to expel people from the race “preemptive disqualification.”
“This is nothing more than a scare tactic to throw people out of the race,” he said. “This is still a vibrant primary. Nobody knows who the favorite is yet.”
Bob Galemmo, 71, responded that many people did not believe Donald Trump would be elected president in 2016 and feared two Republicans could advance to the general election.
“You should never say never,” he said. “If we could reduce it to four or five [candidates]That would be helpful.”
The efforts have already begun.
RL Miller, chairman of the state Democratic Party's environmental group, said Yee should retire.
Yee, “who is at the bottom of the polls, needs to take a hard look at whether he is serving the party or being selfish by staying in the race,” Miller said.
Yee, a former vice chair of the state party, responded forcefully, saying that pushing to drop out of the race “would simply be undemocratic.”
“First of all, I've served this party for a long time. I'm not doing it out of selfishness, in any way,” he said at a Saturday meeting where he served breakfast burritos to delegates. “But I'll just say this: the race is wide open.”
Yee's campaign manager noted that the largest group of voters is still undecided, and the candidate said no one had directly asked her to drop out of the race, but that someone started a rumor a month or two ago that she was going to drop out and run for insurance commissioner.
“I'm not going to drop out and I don't think any candidate should,” Yee said.
Calderon said Swalwell had urged him to drop out of the race.
Calderon defended staying in the race to try to reach undecided voters during a gubernatorial forum at the Commonwealth Club on Friday.
“I stay very consistent in that 1 to 3% range,” he joked. “But my challenge is access to resources and visibility, which is something that could change in a day with the right backing and support.”
Swalwell denied asking Calderón to drop out of the race.
“I never said that,” Swalwell said in an interview at a Saturday night dinner honoring Pelosi. “I've enjoyed being on the road with him, and each candidate must make the decision about their own direction.”
