Gov. Gavin Newsom should now turn his attention from national politics to crucial races on home turf.
Here we have a major politician who is suddenly without a major political job in this extraordinarily important election season, but who could find a major job right here in California.
A handful of congressional races in California will help determine which party controls the next U.S. House of Representatives. And Newsom could help Democrats take back the House, which is now under very narrow Republican control.
But Newsom would have to lower his expectations from being a high-profile national player to playing the role of local fighter for his party.
Newsom has already been ousted from the national stage, by Vice President Kamala Harris and by the governor himself at the Democratic National Convention, anyway.
Harris's swift rise to the Democratic presidential nomination after President Biden's withdrawal left Newsom out of contention for the White House at least until 2028, and most likely forever.
If Harris beats Republican Donald Trump in November, she will run for reelection in 2028 and Newsom will not challenge her in a primary. By 2032, she will be 64 (still young compared to Biden and Trump today), but there will be plenty of younger presidential hopefuls lining up and Newsom will have been out of elected office for six years.
If Harris loses to Trump, Newsom could still run in 2028, but there will be plenty of other contenders, including potentially Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom Harris elevated to national prominence by choosing as her running mate.
I've never been convinced, though, that Newsom really wants to run for president; that deep down he has the proverbial “fire in his belly.”
I guess he just wants to be considered a presidential candidate and to be mentioned prominently in the national media as a possible candidate, and to be seen as a player in national politics. That elevates his status.
That was confirmed for me when Newsom turned down a coveted invitation to speak on the convention’s opening night. The governor said his flight from California arrived too late after attending a school orientation for his children.
Seriously? A back-to-school event is a bigger priority than a nationally televised speech at a convention if one harbors presidential ambitions? Hard to believe. And given his longstanding alliance with Harris, Newsom couldn’t get another speaking slot?
I suspect Newsom didn't speak because he finds the text on the teleprompter difficult to read. And at national conventions, the standard-bearer's team typically insists on reviewing the speaker's text beforehand and demands strict adherence to the written script.
“He hates giving speeches,” a senior Newsom aide once told me. “It gives him anxiety.”
This is due to dyslexia, which Newsom has struggled with all his life and must repeatedly rehearse his speeches.
In fact, Newsom has stopped giving the annual State of the State addresses to a joint session of the Legislature, usually citing some made-up excuse but really because of his difficulty reading speeches.
Too bad, because he is an excellent improviser.
Still, 10 other governors took advantage of the opportunity to attend the convention and gained national attention by delivering televised speeches. Among them, several presumptive presidential hopefuls took a lead over Newsom.
Harris seems unlikely to give Newsom the attention-grabbing role of national representative that he enjoyed when Biden was running. Harris and Newsom are both San Francisco liberals, the kind that makes moderate voters in key swing states naturally wary. She doesn’t need another left-coast liberal running around promoting her candidacy.
“People in other states don’t like us,” says former Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “Not only is he from California, he’s from the Bay Area. It doesn’t make sense for me to put a yellow marker on that. I wouldn’t put it on the highway.”
But there are some hotly contested congressional races in California that could boost the Democrat.
“He can absolutely help raise money for those campaigns,” says Sragow, who until recently was editor of the California Target Book, which tracks state legislative and congressional races.
But Sragow added: “If I were running one of the Democratic campaigns, I’m not sure we would want to invite the governor to appear” at a rally. “I don’t know if that would help.”
That’s because in most House districts with competitive races, Newsom lost his 2022 reelection race to Republican Brian Dahle, a little-known rural state senator. So Newsom might not have much sway among Republicans and independents. And most of these districts have an unusually large number of Republican voters.
“If he wanted to help,” Sragow says, “he could do it in a very specific way, with the goal of driving Democratic turnout. It would be a good use of his time and resources, but he has to stay within the Democratic family.”
Of the 10 races that are generally considered competitive, seven are currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats. Most are in Southern California, but three are in the San Joaquin Valley.
Governors don’t typically focus on congressional races. Candidates run on federal issues, not state issues. But there’s a lot of overlap. And Newsom has been campaigning around the nation on federal issues as he improves his national profile.
By serving locally as a team member and helping Democrats take back the House, Newsom could earn points nationally within his party if he ever runs for president.
In the meantime, he would have more time to do his daily work in Sacramento. He has a lot of work backlog to do.
