WASHINGTON- The rushed effort to redraw California's congressional districts has drawn national attention, attracted big money and renewed hope among Democrats that the effort could help counter a wave of Republican redistricting efforts instigated by President Trump.
But if Democrats succeed in California, the question remains: Will it be enough to shift the balance of power in Congress?
To regain control of the House, Democrats need to gain three Republican seats in next year's midterm elections. That narrow margin led the White House to pressure Republicans this summer to redraw maps in red states in an effort to keep Democrats in the minority.
Texas was the first to signal it would follow Trump's edict, setting off a rare mid-decade redistricting arms race that quickly affected California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom masterminded Proposition 50 to take advantage of his state's huge inventory of congressional seats.
Californians appear ready to approve the measure on Tuesday. If they do, Democrats could potentially gain five House seats, an outcome that would mostly offset the Republican effort in Texas that has already passed.
While Democrats and Republicans in other states have also taken steps to redraw their maps, it is too early to say which party will make a net gain, or predict voter sentiment a year from now, when a lopsided election in either direction could make the new allocation irrelevant.
Republican leaders in North Carolina and Missouri approved new maps that will likely produce one new Republican seat each, Ohio Republicans could gain two more seats in a newly redrawn map approved Friday, and Republican leaders in Indiana, Louisiana, Kansas and Florida are considering or taking steps to redraw their maps. In total, those measures could lead to at least 10 new Republican seats, according to experts tracking redistricting efforts.
To counter this, Virginia Democrats passed a constitutional amendment that, if approved by voters, would give lawmakers the power and option to redraw a new map before next year's elections. Illinois leaders are weighing their redistricting options, and New York has filed a lawsuit seeking to redraw a district controlled by the Republican Party. But concerns about legal challenges have already sunk the party's efforts in Maryland, and the potential dilution of the black vote has slowed moves in Illinois.
So far, partisan maneuvering appears to favor Republicans.
“Democrats can't gerrymander their way out of the gerrymandering problem. The math just doesn't add up,” said David Daly, a member of the nonprofit FairVote. “They don't have enough opportunities or enough goals.”
Complex factors for Democrats
Democrats have to weigh more than just political calculations. Many states are hampered by a combination of constitutional restrictions, legal deadlines, and the reality that many of their state maps can no longer be easily redrawn for partisan gain. In California, Proposition 50 marks a shift away from the state's commitment to independent redistricting.
Democrats' hesitancy in states like Maryland and Illinois also underscores tensions brewing within the party as it tries to maximize its partisan advantage and establish a House majority that could frustrate Trump in his final two years in office.
“Despite deeply shared frustrations about the state of our country, mid-cycle redistricting for Maryland presents a reality in which the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is perilous, the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing map would be undermined,” Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson wrote in a letter to state lawmakers last week..
In Illinois, black Democrats are expressing concern about the plans and vowing to oppose maps that would reduce the share of black voters in congressional districts where they have historically prevailed.
“I can't just think of this as a short-term fight. I have to think about the long-term consequences of doing something like this,” said state Sen. Willie Preston, chair of the Illinois Senate Black Caucus.
Adding to those concerns is the possibility that the Supreme Court's conservative majority could weaken a key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act and limit lawmakers' ability to consider race when redrawing maps. The outcome (and its effect on the 2026 midterm elections) will largely depend on the timing and scope of the court's decision.
The court has been asked to rule on the case in January, but a decision could come later. Timing is key, as many states have deadlines to file for the 2026 congressional elections or hold their primaries during the spring and summer.
If the court strikes down the provision, known as Section 2, advocacy groups estimate Republicans could gain at least a dozen House seats in southern states.
“I think all of these things are going to contribute to what legislatures decide to do,” said Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Brennan Center for Justice. The impending court ruling, he added, is “an additional layer of uncertainty in an already uncertain time.”
Republican-led states move forward
Support for Proposition 50 has generated more than $114 million, endorsements from some of the party's top luminaries, including former President Obama, and a boost for national Democrats who want to regain control of Congress after the midterm elections.
In an email to supporters on Monday, Newsom said fundraising goals had been met and asked proponents of the effort to get involved in other states.
“I'll ask you to help others: States like Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and more are trying to stop Republican redistricting efforts mid-decade. More on that soon,” Newsom wrote.
Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun called a special session beginning Monday to “protect Hoosiers from efforts by other states seeking to diminish their voice in Washington and ensure their representation in Congress is fair.”
In Kansas, the Republican president of the state Senate said last week that there were enough signatures from Republicans in the chamber to call a special session to redraw the state's maps. Republicans in the state House would have to match the effort to move forward.
In Louisiana, Republicans who control the Legislature voted last week to delay the state's 2026 primary election. The move is intended to give lawmakers more time to redraw maps in case the Supreme Court rules in the federal voting case.
If judges strike down the practice of drawing districts based on race, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has indicated the state would likely jump into the mid-decade redistricting race.
Shaniqua McClendon, director of Vote Save America, said the GOP's broad push on redistricting underscores why Democrats should follow California's lead, even if they don't like the tactic.
“Democrats have to take seriously what's at stake. I know they don't like the means, but we have to think about the end,” McClendon said. “We have to be able to take back the House; it's the only way we'll be able to hold Trump accountable.”
In New York, a lawsuit filed last week charging that a congressional district disenfranchises Black and Latino voters would be a “Hail Mary” for Democrats hoping to improve their chances there in the 2026 midterms, FairVote's Daly said.
Utah could also give Democrats an outside shot at picking up a seat, said Dave Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. A court ruling this summer forced Utah Republican leaders to redraw the state's congressional map, resulting in two districts that Democrats could potentially flip.
Wasserman described the various redistricting efforts as an “arms race… Democrats are using what Republicans have done in Texas as justification for California, and Republicans are using California as justification for their actions in other states.”
'Political tribalism'
Some political observers said the outcome of the California election could inspire even more political maneuvering in other states.
“I think the passage of Proposition 50 in California could show other states that voters could support redistricting in the middle of the decade when necessary, when they are under attack,” said Jeffrey Wice, a professor at New York Law School, where he directs the New York Institute on Elections, Census and Redistricting. “I think it would certainly give momentum to places like New York moving forward.”
Like California, New York would need to ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment, but that couldn't happen in time for the midterm elections.
“It could also encourage red states that have been hesitant about redistricting to say, 'Well, if voters in California support redistricting mid-decade, maybe they'll support it here, too,'” Wice said.
For Erik Nisbet, director of the Center for Communications and Public Policy at Northwestern University, the idea that the mid-decade redistricting trend is gaining traction is part of a broader problem.
“It's a symptom of this 20-year trend of increasing polarization and political tribalism,” he said. “And unfortunately, our tribalism is now breaking out, not just between us, but also between states.”
He argued that both parties are sacrificing democratic norms and ideas of procedural fairness, as well as representative democracy, for political gain.
“I'm worried about what the end result of this will be,” he said.
Ceballos reported from Washington, Mehta from Los Angeles.
