American families with young children are leaving cities in large numbers, potentially suggesting that progressive urban policies are to blame, according to a recent report by The Atlantic and an analysis by a Manhattan Institute scholar.
The Atlantic's Derek Thompson last week criticized vice presidential candidate JD Vance's pro-natalist comments, but admitted that progressives have a “family problem” that has less to do with an individual's decision not to have children and more to do with the family policies of big cities and Democratic politicians.
The population under age 5 is declining twice as fast in large urban counties compared to other parts of the country, according to a new analysis of census data by Connor O'Brien, a policy analyst at the Economic Innovation Group think tank.
The number of younger children declined by nearly 20 percent in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx, and fell by double-digit percentage points in the counties that make up all or most of Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis and St. Louis between 2020 and 2023, according to the data, the Atlantic reported.
A woman pushes a stroller as she walks along the boardwalk in Long Beach, New York, November 13, 2019. (Getty Images)
“These places should be advertisements for what the modern progressive movement can accomplish without meddling conservatism getting in the way, at the local or state level,” The Atlantic wrote in its article. “If progressives want to sell their cause to the masses, they should be able to say: Elect us and we'll make America more like Oakland, Brooklyn or suburban Detroit. If they can't make that case, that's a problem.”
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According to O'Brien's census analysis, the under-five population continues to decline at twice the rate in large urban counties than in the rest of the world. Several counties including places like Manhattan, Brooklyn, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco are projected to lose 50 percent of their under-five populations within 20 years.
Following the 2008 financial crisis, young, high-income, college-educated whites moved to cities as multiracial families with children moved in, The Atlantic reported. The trend was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, from the early 1980s to the 2020s, the number of women under 40 who have never given birth has doubled.
But the data cannot be attributed solely to the COVID-19 pandemic or declining birth rates, the Atlantic reported, arguing that cities in red states have built homes and contained child care inflation more effectively than cities in blue states.
“I’m deeply concerned about the cycle of family exodus,” O’Brien told The Atlantic. “When the population of young children in a city drops by 10 or 20 percent in just a few years, that’s a potential political earthquake. Almost overnight, there are fewer parents fighting for better schools, local playgrounds, or all the other mundane comforts that families care about.”
New York City skyline. (Fox News Photo/Joshua Comins)
Robert VerBruggen, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, told Fox News Digital that the data is consistent with the findings of a similar report by the Manhattan Institute last year, which found that major U.S. cities are increasingly having fewer children. VerBruggen said the trend is especially notable because American cities already had relatively few children even before the current exodus.
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“Children and parents are losing access to some of the most economically and socially vibrant places in the country, which in turn is losing access to the basic human experience of being around children,” VerBruggen said. “Certainly, some of the factors driving this phenomenon are beyond the control of cities.”
“For example, thanks to the rise of working from home, fewer people are required to live in a big city as a condition for getting a job. Many workers can now have a job in a big city. and “A big house with a yard,” he added.
But VerBruggen said there are many things cities could do to attract families.
“First, it is simply too expensive to live in the country's most prosperous metropolises, even for those who love urban life and don't mind population density,” he said. “The cost of living is strongly correlated with families' migration decisions.”
Children in the playground. (iStock)
According to census data, housing is an important indicator of affordability and one of the main reasons people move: to have a newer, better or bigger house or apartment. But despite that, the percentage of those moving who report improvements to their housing units decreased.
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The US economy is facing a housing affordability crisis that is making it difficult for younger generations to become homeowners amid high mortgage rates and expensive building materials.
Housing prices reached a new record In May, amid an ongoing housing shortage, cities in Republican states are now building more housing than those in Democratic states, according to The Atlantic. Expensive housing leads to high costs for local services, such as child care, and a shortage of workers willing to work for lower wages.
“Cities need to build more housing, including family-specific housing, to drive down those prices,” VerBruggen said. “They also need to control clutter, offer families educational options and make public spaces more accessible to children.”
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