Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk They are preparing to take their rivalry to the next border of weight loss medicines: pills.
Both companies hope to launch oral obesity drugs in the US. Uu. Next year, once the regulators approve them. Daily pills could introduce more people in LPG-1, medicine class better known by weekly shots.
But after Lilly's pill produced less weight loss than analysts expected in a recent trial essay, she raised new questions about how widely oral medications will be adopted and what rival company will dominate the space.
Doctors will see more closely how Lilly and Novo pills are compared in the coming months when Lilly publishes the results of a trial of the two, said Lilly's scientific director, Dan Skovronsky, in an exclusive interview with CNBC. The main objective of the study is to measure how much pills can reduce blood sugar levels in people with type 2 diabetes, but will also measure weight loss.
“We would not have undertaken this randomized control trial of the AT-Tres phase face to face unless we had a lot of confidence that Orforglipron would be well compared to the oral semaglutida,” Skovronsky said.
Nikos pekiaridis | Nurphoto | Getty images
He warned against making comparisons between trials that did not directly compare drugs, where Novo's pill seems more effective and led to less discontinuations. Meanwhile, Novo Martin Holst Lange scientific director in a separate interview said the data speak for themselves.
The next pill of Obesity of Novo is an oral version of its weekly Wegovy take; Lilly's pill is a new drug called orforglipron that is different from its Zepbound shot. Lilly's shot It is the gold standard in terms of efficiency, said Skovronsky. It can help people lose more than 20% of their body weight.
Neither Novo's pill nor Lilly's oral drug are as effective as Zepbound. In the highest dose, Orforglipron has produced approximately 12% weight loss, while oral semaglutida has led to approximately 17%. That raises the question of how many people will opt for a pill if it means less weight loss.
Even so, Wall Street hopes that pills make great advances in the coming years. Analysts see oral medications that represent approximately 20% of the estimated market of $ 80 billion for GLP-1 obesity medications in 2030, according to evaluate data.
The logos of the Danish drug manufacturer Novo Nordisk, manufacturer of the successful diabetes and the treatments for Ozempic and Wegovy weight loss is seen outside therm Building as the company presents the annual report in Novo Nordisk in Bagsvaerd, Denmark, on February 5, 2025.
Mads Claus Rasmussen | AFP | Getty images
Skovronsky believes that pills could become the main way that obesity is treated worldwide, and that oral drugs could have a larger market share than injectables. He said that most patients are more concerned with other factors such as supply and convenience than the amount of weight they can lose, and believes that Orforglipron has the advantage.
Treatment is a small molecule medication like most pills know people. It can be manufactured more easily than peptides, such as shots and novo pill. And it does not come with the food and water restrictions that come with the oral option of Novo, which requires people to wait 30 minutes after taking the drug to eat and drink.
“When I look at the pills, orforglipron has no food effect, it is a small molecule, so manufacturing should be easier,” said BMO analyst Capital Markets Evan Seigerman. “But with a new administration in Novo Nordisk, I think [new Chief Executive Officer] Mike Doustdar will not take this and be complacent about it. He will bow and make sure this launch is successful. “
After seeing the results of the Obesity Pill trial of Lilly, Seigerman moved part of his estimation of Orforglipron Market share to oral semaggluty. Analysts reduced their 2032 estimates for orforglipron in an average of approximately $ 4.5 billion between May and September, according to Evaluate. Now they see sales of $ 14.56 billion that year.
Skovronsky said that it is more difficult to predict market dynamics than science.
“We did a good job predicting science,” he said. “We said we would make an oral that had security, tolerability and efficiency that was similar to GLP-1 injectable. We did that. The parts of science developed. Let's see how the market develops.”
