Nordisk Chief Executive Mike Doustdar said Wednesday that the company aims to recruit about 15 million new patients, at least initially, when Medicare begins covering obesity treatments for the first time later this year.
About 67 million Americans are covered by Medicare, but “when you look specifically at our products and the target group, I think about 15 million people would be a good number to target,” he told CNBC in an interview.
Medicare is scheduled to begin covering obesity drugs for the first time later this year under historic “most favored nation” drug pricing agreements that Novo and its main rival, Eli Lillystruck with President Donald Trump in November.
Health experts say the long-awaited coverage could expand the market for the drugs and prompt more private insurers to cover them. Some experts estimate that between 20 and 30 million Medicare patients suffer from obesity and related conditions.
Doustdar said Medicare coverage, along with the launch of Novo's new obesity pill and other factors, should help the company gradually increase prescription volumes and offset lower prices in the U.S. following that deal with Trump.
But he said he doesn't expect Medicare access to obesity treatments to open up overnight.
“Now, it would be great if we could find a way to get access very, very quickly. But I think that would be a little naïve,” Doustdar said, pointing to the slow adoption seen among eligible patients with commercial insurance.
It's a slightly more conservative tone on the initial impact of Medicare coverage compared to Lilly, which has cited that coverage as a key tailwind for its guidance this year. Last week, Lilly said it expects Medicare coverage to be available in July.
Meanwhile, Doustdar said Novo is in the middle of negotiations with the government about “exactly what month, what week it will open.”
Close the market share gap
Novo is under pressure to regain market share in Lilly's burgeoning GLP-1 space and its cheaper compound imitators. Last week, Lilly said its share of the U.S. market for obesity and diabetes drugs rose to 60.5% in the fourth quarter, while Novo's was 39.1%.
Novo has also highlighted a gap in “preference share” for its Wegovy weight loss treatment versus rival Lilly injections. In the US, Novo estimates that between 7 and 8 patients in 10 come to Lilly.
When asked how Novo plans to close that gap, Doustdar said one way to do it is to “get better results with the pill.” The company's Wegovy obesity pill has an advantage over Lilly's upcoming oral drug, orforglipron, which is expected to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration during the second quarter.
Mike Doustdar, left, CEO of Novo Nordisk, and David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, listen as President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office during an event on weight loss drugs on Nov. 6, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | afp | fake images
Doustdar said Novo's pill is slightly more effective than Lilly's based on separate clinical trials, showing a 16.6% weight loss compared to 12.4% with Lilly's oral drug.
“If you use these two numbers, you basically have a 40% difference between the effectiveness of these pills,” he said. “I think this will be a very important selling point for the pill.”
But Doustdar also pointed to the upcoming approval and launch of a higher dose (7.2 milligrams) of Wegovy that could help Lilly's Zepbound obesity treatment gain market share.
That higher dose helps patients lose about 21% of their weight, which is “very much on par” with the highest dose of Zepbound, he said. Zepbound's greater effectiveness has been a key factor in deterring more patients and prescribers from choosing Wegovy, which has demonstrated weight loss of around 15% on average in clinical trials.
“When that hits the market, my thought, my wish, my hope is that people will realize that we now have two products with similar efficacy,” he said.
