Economic woes stemming from inflation appear to have accelerated a shift of Latino voters toward Republicans, halving the Democratic lead with a critical group of voters in the run-up to a close presidential election, according to an NBC/CNBC/ poll. Telemundo.
The survey of 1,000 registered Latino voters found that the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, led the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. That's considerably less than the 36-point lead President Joe Biden enjoyed in the run-up to the 2020 election. Biden's lead was nearly half the 50-point lead Hillary Clinton had over Trump in 2016, making which suggests a longer-term trend that shows Latinos in the Democratic field but in declining numbers.
“There is an intensity around these issues that is quite surprising,” said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic pollsters for the survey. “The cost of living and inflation is really what informs a lot of the way people think about the economy and the economic future of the country.”
The survey was conducted from September 15 to 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris' 14-point lead is the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among Latino voters surveyed in at least the last four elections, dating back to 2012. The poll also found a 54% to 42% preference for Democratic control of the Congress among Latinos, the smallest Democratic lead since 2012. That signals a shift that could be more far-reaching than just the presidential race.
“This poll data is not a blip,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, who served as Republican pollster for the survey. “It is a continuation of a precipitous and massive shift in the political identity of one of the most important voting groups in the United States.”
Harris has a strong lead among respondents when it comes to issues of character: By two to one, Latino voters surveyed think she will do a better job addressing their needs; 48% gave Harris a positive favorability rating compared to 32% for Trump; and he led Trump by about 20 points or more on the questions of who has the right temperament to be president and who is more trustworthy, competent and effective.
But the survey shows that inflation and the cost of living, along with jobs and the economy, are the top two issues for Latinos, mirroring surveys of the general population. Trump leads Harris on both, with a 46% to 37% lead on who is better at dealing with inflation and a 45% to 41% lead on handling the economy.
Harris has a 39-point lead on who would be best at treating immigrants humanely and protecting their rights, a 32-point lead on abortion, and even a 5-point lead on crime. Harris' dominance on those issues highlights the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump's gains among Latinos in this poll compared to 2020.
Harris' lead over Trump narrowed substantially among younger voters ages 18 to 34, who prefer the Democratic candidate by just 10 points compared to 44 points in 2020. Trump and Harris are tied among Latino men 47/ 47, a group that Biden led by 17 points. in polls leading up to the 2020 election. The Democratic lead among Latina women is a substantial 26 points, but that's about half the lead Biden had in 2020.
All of these groups rate the economy poorly, and Latino voters overall are as pessimistic about the economy as the rest of the country. Only 23% view the current state of the economy as excellent or good, while 77% rate the economy as fair or poor, nearly the same results for all voters in August's CNBC All-America Economic Poll. That's a potential problem for Democrats because Latinos have been fairly reliable Democratic voters and are nothing like Democrats on the issue of the economy. In the CNBC poll, Democrats rated the economy 42% excellent or good, compared to 23% of Latinos in this poll. 65% of Latinos say their salaries are below inflation. While that's about the same as the rest of the population, it's 11 points higher than in NBC's 2022 Latino survey. Women and younger Latino adults say they've been hit hardest by higher prices.
Among those who say they are falling behind, 48% say the biggest impact has been on the cost of food, 34% point to rent and mortgages and 10% point to the rising cost of health care.
While Latinos have very different views on immigration, it was only ranked as the fourth most important area of concern, far behind inflation, employment and even threats to democracy. The survey found that 62% of respondents believe immigration helps the country more than it hurts, and 35% say the opposite. It is the smallest positive result for immigration among Latinos since at least 2006.
According to the poll, Trump leads Harris 47-34 on the question of who is better at securing the border and controlling immigration.
A modest majority of 52% of Latino voters said it is more important to provide a path to citizenship for immigrants and prevent discrimination, compared to 47% who say it is more important to secure the border and prevent immigrants from entering illegally. .
Still, 91% support creating a way for undocumented spouses to obtain citizenship, and 87% support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought here as children.
Here's a demographic profile of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll:
- 52% say they speak primarily English, while the rest say they speak only Spanish or both.
- 56% trace their family heritage to Mexico; 16% to Puerto Rico; 11% to Spain; 5% to Cuba; 5% to the Dominican Republic.
- 49% identify as Democrats, 37% as Republicans and 13% as independents.
- 32% say they are liberal; 37% are moderate; 29% are conservative.
- 49% are Catholic, 21% are Protestant, 28% are other/none.
Correction: Sunday's poll included 1,000 registered Latino voters. The group was incorrectly described in a previous version of this article.
