CMS sees that the registration of Medicare Advantage falls in 2026

The registration of Medicare Advantage is prepared to fall for the first time in almost two decades, according to the Medicare and Medicaid service centers.

The agency estimates that the registration in the program will be 34 million in 2025, which marks less than half of all older adults, below almost 35 million this year, according to health insurance projections.

Despite the projected setback, the agency announced Friday night “anticipates that registration in [Medicare Advantage] In 2026 it will be more robust than the projections of the plans “, and that the market will remain stable. The elderly will see that they have an average of 10 plans to choose from most markets when they obtain their first look at the 2026 plans on Wednesday.

After pursuing the growth in the Medicare market for more than a decade, health insurers have faced reduced profits in their Medicare Advantage programs in the last two years, since members have higher medical costs than expected and new regulations press the government reimbursement rates. The largest insurers are now reducing non -profitable plans and completely leaving some markets.

“We are seeing that most health insurance companies, most Medicare Advantage operations, focus much more on profitability in relation to growth this year,” said Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz, founder and CEO of chapter, a broker that helps Medicare members to inscribe in coverage. “Some of the benefits of the plan will not be as robust as they have been in the past.”

CMS projects that the average monthly premium in Medicare Advantage plans will decrease from $ 16.40 this year to $ 14 in 2026. However, when the preliminary open registration The period begins on Wednesday, older people can find higher prices in many of the great insurance plans.

Evercore ISI analysts say that initial data on 2026 offers point to higher prices of plans Unitedhealth Group'S unitedhealthcare, CVS health's aetna, Elevation, Human and others.

“Our preliminary analysis shows that payers took measures to improve margins through benefits reductions, including higher, deductible and maximum pocket premiums,” said Elizabeth Anderson from Evercore Isi in a research note. “In particular, we saw (the insurers) take more measures on the HMO plans that in general saw a more considerable cut for benefits.”

Analysts say that insurers are prioritizing HMO, or the health maintenance organization, plans for 2026, which tend to have more limited suppliers networks. Although companies are raising deductible in those plans, older people will still see offers with $ 0 premiums, according to analysts.

“That is an area that carriers are very reticent when touching. Therefore, they are more likely to reduce the benefits long before adding a premium to a product of $ 0. But the products that already have cousins ​​today … can see increases,” said Brooks Conway, director of consulting Oliver Wyman.

Older people tend to work with insurance corridors and agents to help classify their options during open registration. Therefore, one of the ways in which insurers try to increase registration in more profitable plans is to prioritize commissions. They will pay higher rates in some plans and none for others.

This year, carriers are increasingly eliminating corridor commissions in A wide strip of less profitable plans.

“It is not something that is out of the standard for that to happen, but the amount of the plans that cut and deactivate, that is what is not normal,” said Michael Antoine, an independent health insurance agent with partner insurance solutions.

For the open registration of 2026, from 15% to 20% of the plans have been dismantled in most of the country, according to the data compiled for CNBC per chapter. In some markets such as New York, insurers have reduced commissions in more than 25% of the plans, while in Georgia parts it is more than 35% of the plans.

“This year, in particular, it is so important that people ask your Medicare advisor if there are available plans that Medicare's advisor is not seeing due to these non-commission challenges,” said Blumenfeld-Gantz chapter.

Even when they are willing to give up the commissions, it is possible that runners cannot obtain access to some of those plans in their brokerage systems.

“I had an experience, and I am not going to say the operator, where I could not even register the person in the plan,” said Antoine. “I was being completely suppressed. They didn't want membership in that plan.”

Insurers are betting that with more restrictive offers and registration, they can better handle membership and costs by 2026. But with such interruption in the market, uncertainty remains high.

“Registration is particularly difficult for plans to project in years like this, where so many operators are reducing the benefits and adjusting their wallets,” said Conway. “A plan could expect to reduce [Medicare Advantage] Registration because they bowed (of) benefits, only to discover that an important operator left their market, and the remaining operators also inclined their benefits. “

Medicare affiliates must obtain notices from their insurers about the changes in their current health plans this week, when the commercial period for open registration of 2026 begins on Wednesday. With so many changes in the market, runners say that older people need to buy this year and weigh their options.

“The year is not the automatic year,” said Whitney Stizom, Vice President of Brokerage online Ehealth. “Making comparison purchases can save more than $ 1,800 in pocket costs simply by simply comparing plans and potentially find something that will save them more.”

An imminent closure of the Government, which could begin on October 1, could add a little more uncertainty to the registration of this year, with Congress at a point of dead in a financing agreement.

A former CMS official told CNBC a brief closure should not affect the open registration, because the funds for contractors who supervise the process have already been assigned and will continue.

On Saturday, CMS announced that the critical services for Medicare and Medicaid would not be affected by a closure, although the agency would not have funds to provide supervision to contractors, including those that administer the Medicare call centers.

Medicare's open registration period extends from October 15 to December 7.