The world at large has been bewildered by Islamabad's prominent role as the sole interlocutor between Washington DC and Tehran in a conflict that has also affected Gulf countries that host US bases, including Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait – and, to a lesser extent, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Given US President Trump's consistently inconsistent disposition (he has regularly issued contradictory and inflammatory statements on ending hostilities), Pakistan's role has been outstanding by any measure and has been the only ray of hope in bringing the warring parties to the negotiating table. While many have appreciated Islamabad's tireless efforts, its prominent position has hurt New Delhi's self-aggrandizement and arrogance.
For India, Pakistan's growing relevance on the global stage is a difficult pill to swallow. The effect was so serious that it angered Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar so much that he uttered extremely indecent and undiplomatic words, a surprisingly pejorative term towards Pakistan. Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs appropriately responded that the use of such terms “betrays a deeper sense of frustration” and “when arguments are thin, invective seems to fill the void.”
Whatever perception India or other stakeholders may have about Pakistan's global relevance, the fact remains that despite the country's internal weaknesses, no one can deny Pakistan's perennial geopolitical importance in the international order.
It is appropriate to quote Hathaway, who argues in his study titled 'The Leverage Paradox: Pakistan and the United States' that “by most standard measures of power – population size, GDP, size and capacity of its military, possession of nuclear weapons – Pakistan ranks at the top of world rankings.”
The author states that “as Bruce Riedel has pointed out, if Pakistan were placed in a different place on the map – say, Latin America or Africa – it would be one of the dominant countries in its region” (p. 117). Therefore, for many doyens, Pakistan cannot be neglected in its importance to the regional and global geopolitical and security architecture.
During the two decades of the “war on terror” and the escalating conflict on the home front within Pakistan, the country witnessed unprecedented turmoil and destruction perpetrated by foreign proxies and terrorists. During these years, Pakistan began to be portrayed as the most dangerous place in the world. In addition to negative media coverage, several publications also titled the country in ways that led readers to believe that the situation there is precarious and that the state and society are on the brink of inevitable collapse.
For example, one commentator begins his article in The Atlantic with this description: “with its 'Islamic' nuclear bomb, its Taliban- and Al-Qaeda-infested borderlands, its dysfunctional cities, and its feuding ethnic groups, Pakistan may well be the most dangerous country in the world, a nuclear Yugoslavia in the making” (Kaplan, 2009). Manuscripts printed during this era contained titles such as 'Descent into Chaos' (Rashid, 2008), 'Armageddon in Islamabad' (Riedel, 2009), 'Pakistan: a hard country' (Lieven, 2011), 'Breakdown in Pakistan' (Bano, 2012), 'Avoiding Armageddon' (Riedel, 2013), 'The Pakistan Paradox'. (Jaffrelot, 2015), 'Pakistan at the crossroads' (Jaffrelot, 2016), 'Pakistan under siege' (Afzal, 2018) and 'Pakistan: courting the abyss' (Devasher, 2018). These are just a few headlines in addition to countless media reports that portray or predict an imminent doomsday for Pakistan.
There is no doubt that since the birth of this country and throughout its turbulent history, the overall economic and political landscape has not improved much more than the nation deserves, and the country is grappling with multiple crises today as it was in the late 1990s. Pakistan, since its independence in 1947, has had to face tumultuous years during the first four decades, including wars with India and the disintegration of East Pakistan to become Bangladesh in 1971. Undoubtedly, the country still faces a polycrisis comprising internal political, economic, governance and security challenges. However, as in the past, it is the resilience of the nation that allows Pakistan to emerge from the abyss.
To begin with, one of the country's strengths is Pakistan's geographical location: a country situated at the intersection of three regions comprising Central Asia, the Middle East and South Asia. Due to its distinctive location, Pakistan has remained an active player in global politics and has played a dynamic role in epoch-making historical events such as the Cold War era and the 'war on terror' period.
Pakistan has long occupied a key position on the world stage due to its geography, demographics and other factors (such as its strong military capabilities). For example, according to Chase, Hill, and Kennedy (1999), among the world's 140 developing states, there is a group of nine pivotal states whose status and destiny are likely to significantly affect regional and even global security. Pakistan is among these nine states (others are Indonesia, India, Turkiye, Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Algeria and Mexico).
Pakistan and these countries have mostly been considered “pivotal states” (Chase, Hill and Kennedy, 1996, p33), countries whose fate determines the survival and success of the surrounding region and, ultimately, the stability of the international system. Therefore, “due to its position wedged between Afghanistan and India, as well as its Indian Ocean coast, Pakistan will remain a key state for both the United States and China” (Sweijs, Oosterveld, Knowles, & Schellekens, 2014, p. 38).
While many policy experts indicated that Pakistan's importance would decline considerably for the United States, particularly after the departure of its troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, the reality is that Pakistan appears to be a pivotal state in the current crisis. The country has become the only actor mediating between the United States and Iran, as both countries trust Islamabad.
In recent years, Pakistan's foreign policy has had notable success in maintaining strong ties with both Beijing and Washington, as well as Tehran and major Gulf capitals. Islamabad's commitment to Beijing is based on decades of mutual trust, and the relationship is multifaceted, encompassing deep defense collaboration, joint military projects, intelligence cooperation, expanded trade and economic cooperation under CPEC, and Pakistan's status as the largest recipient of Chinese arms exports since 2008. All of this makes ties between Islamabad and Beijing quite unique without a formal defense treaty or military alliance.
At the same time, in the context of Trump's “America First” policy, there is no doubt that since his second arrival in the Oval Office, Pakistan has managed to engage his administration. Islamabad has had notable success in earning praise from Trump in various forums on multiple occasions. It is still a long shot to what extent Pakistan will be able to negotiate a long-awaited and much-needed peace deal, depending on the behavior of Iran and the United States.
The very fact that both Tehran and Washington have reposed their trust in Islamabad and that Pakistan has maintained a channel of communication between the two countries signifies the extraordinary diplomatic efforts and stature of Pakistan.
The writer teaches at Malakand University. He can be contacted at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Geo.tv.
Originally published in The News
