With film executives, directors and actors gathering in Park City, Utah, this week for the 40th Sundance Film Festival, a big question arises: How much will a tight Hollywood emerging from two historic strikes be willing to pay this year? For his favorite independent films?
This year, shoppers will eagerly watch star-studded movies like Kristen Stewart and recent Emmy winner Steven Yeun in the futuristic romance “Love Me”; Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin (who is also coming off an Emmy win) in the buddy comedy-drama “A Real Pain”; Pedro Pascal in the action drama “Freaky Tales”; David Schwimmer in the comedy-drama “Little Death”; and Saoirse Ronan in the adaptation of her memoir “The Outrun.”
It's difficult to predict which films may capture the interest of buyers and emerge from the festival with a massive deal or become a best picture Oscar contender.
With enough luck, smart festival shopping can pay off big. Few, if any, people expected “CODA,” the 2021 Sundance entry, which Apple acquired for $25 million, to take top prize the following year at the Academy Awards. On the other hand, promising films can leave a studio with egg on its face, as when Searchlight Pictures pulled Sundance acquisition “Magazine Dreams” from its release schedule amid actor Jonathan Majors' legal troubles.
The total film count for the 2024 festival is smaller than last year's program. This year, 82 feature films will be screened at Sundance, compared to the 110 features that screened at the 2023 festival, which included buzzy titles like Celine Song's “Past Lives,” Chloe Domont's corporate thriller “Fair Play” and Molly Gordon and Nick Lieberman's comedy “Theatre Camp.”
Some high-profile titles are arriving and already in distribution, such as “Frida,” a documentary about the artist Frida Kahlo that Amazon acquired; “Hit Man,” a true crime drama starring Glen Powell that came to Netflix; and “Love Lies Bleeding,” a bodybuilding romance published by A24 that will be Stewart's second Sundance premiere this year.
But there are reasons to believe the market could be frothing, according to film business experts. Buyers and sellers will enter the independent film market at a time when studios are eager to fill gaps in the schedule caused by production delayed by the strike.
Major releases originally scheduled for this year, such as Walt Disney Co.'s “Snow White” remake with Rachel Zegler, Marvel Studios' “Fantastic Four” and Paramount's “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Two,” have been postponed until 2025. This year's lower overall production gives movie studios more incentive to fill their calendars with Sundance acquisitions.
With the additional demand for finished films, there could be a more competitive market at the festival, said Christine Hsu, agent at CAA Media Finance.
“Buyers are already telling us, 'We need to look at finished films, we really want to be opportunistic, but the quality has to be there,' and that's what creates that great competitive environment where things really stand out.” the market,” Hsu said.
Another reason traditional studio buyers might be willing to bid more aggressively at Sundance is renewed signs of life at the box office, thanks to surprisingly strong showings for “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” as well as independent releases like “”Sound of Freedom”, “The Holdovers” from Focus Features, “Talk to Me” from A24 (a Sundance 2023 pill) and “Poor Things” from Searchlight.
Streaming services also need content to fill their release schedules. Netflix and Apple are typically active bidders at Sundance, and that's not expected to change this year, especially as streamers look for more profitable acquisitions or licensing deals to fill libraries.
“Now, whether because of the lack of production or because they finally saw how they want to spend their own money, [streamers are] ready to license…again to multiple different studios, and that's really helpful for the independent ecosystem,” said Deborah McIntosh, head of WME Independent.
And even as studios and streamers trim scheduling boards as part of a larger effort to reduce costs, the independent route could be seen as a more cost-effective way to fill out a roster. Benjamin Kramer, co-head of CAA's media finance department, argues that the independent market can really benefit when studios and broadcasters work with tighter budgets.
A studio can spend less money acquiring an independent film for seven or eight figures, compared to financing a complete film from start to finish. There is also the benefit of faster delivery, as the independent film is already complete and ready for release at the time of purchase, a clear benefit for studios and streamers looking to fill schedules hampered by strikes.
“Even if someone spends $10 million to $20 million on a movie, that requires a lot less modulation than studios need to decide whether they're going to pull the trigger on $200 million movies or limited series,” Kramer said.
Ross Fremer, an executive at entertainment management, sales and advisory firm Cinetic Media, said he hopes distributors will make more rational offers based on what their audience wants, rather than factors like star power.
“I think buyers are going to be more tactical and [make] “They buy what they think is going to make a difference for their constituents,” Fremer said. “This will be a time when the market will really work to match the right films with the right buyers, and that is generally a good thing for sellers and for buyers.”
Whether festival enthusiasm translates into critical or commercial success is, of course, another question.
Last year, festival favorite “Fair Play” landed a $20 million deal with Netflix after a bidding war that included Neon, Lionsgate and Searchlight Pictures. After landing on the streamer last October, the film has struggled to gain momentum on the awards circuit. The 2022 hit “Cha Cha Real Smooth” also failed to garner any major award nominations despite a $15 million acquisition by Apple.
The highly hyped films that make it to the festival don't always maintain momentum. Highly anticipated films from last year, including “Eileen,” an adaptation of Ottessa Moshfegh's novel starring Anne Hathaway, and “Cat Person,” based on the viral New Yorker essay with “Succession” star Nicholas Braun and Emilia Jones of “CODA” initially struggled to find buyers during the festival.
But for every so-called miss, there's always another year that could bring the next “CODA,” “Get Out,” “Call Me By Your Name,” “Hereditary,” or “Little Miss Sunshine.” To take an example from last year, “Talk to Me,” a horror film about an embalmed hand that allows people to communicate with the dead, became a box office hit, grossing $92 million worldwide.
“Movies dictate the market,” Kramer said. “Even when everyone says, 'Oh, we don't have money, we don't have anything.' [release] time slots planned for the coming years”, suddenly a film is exciting, places open up and money can be made. We've seen that time and time again in years when everyone was flush [with cash] and in years when everyone said that the sky is falling.”
