Pedro Pascal was a little drunk at tonight's Screen Actors Guild Awards, because he thought he might get drunk.
Hey, you and me both, Pedro.
I didn't anticipate that the ceremony, broadcast on Netflix (without commercials and with lots of profanity), would feature many surprises. And apart from Pascal prevailing for “The Last of Us” over the protagonists of “Succession” and Elizabeth Debicki winning for “The Crown” (really?), there were none.
On the television front, the actors we saw win Emmy Awards just a month ago (Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri for “The Bear,” Ali Wong and Steven Yeun for “Beef”) once again prevailed. “The Bear” won comedy series ensemble; “Succession” required drama.
Hey, as Edebiri said, in a nod to James Baldwin, an “act of love is an act of reflex.”
But we don't watch the SAG Awards for the television awards. We're watching because the SAG Awards are a reliable precursor to the Oscars and the voting window is open right now. In the past two years, all five SAG film category winners have prevailed at the Oscars. Will that happen again? Let's take a closer look.
CAST IN A FILM
Winner: “Oppenheimer”
Last: The winner of this award took home the best picture Oscar in 14 out of 28 years, easily making it the precursor to the SAG Awards' least reliable Oscar. (The ensemble award was not awarded in 1994, the first year of the SAG Awards.) That said, three of the four previous winners: “Parasite,” “CODA,” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” also prevailed at the Academy Awards. . (“The Trial of the Chicago 7” triumphed three years ago over the Oscar-winning “Nomadland,” which featured mostly non-professional actors).
Will history repeat itself? This was really the last chance for any kind of doubt to creep into the best picture race. SAG voters have gone the populist route in the film ensemble category over the years, awarding blockbusters like “Black Panther,” “Hidden Figures” and “The Help” over independent-minded films. So it was not inconceivable that they could award the film that made more money than “Oppenheimer.” And “Barbie” wasn't just a commercial success. He won over most critics, unleashed fragile men and launched a thousand think pieces. He checked more than enough boxes to prevail.
But “Oppenheimer” featured a great cast, including Oscar winners Rami Malek and Casey Affleck and, apparently, future Oscar winners Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. The three-hour film gave all of its characters one or two memorable moments: I know I'll never go to another nuclear test without first slathering myself on sunscreen, turning what could have been a biopic of a great man into a fascinating, multi-layered history lesson. After winning the Producers Guild's top honor Sunday night, all that's left is the Oscar.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Winner: Lily Gladstone, “The Flower Moon Killers”
Last: The SAG and the academy have coincided 21 out of 29 years. Notable recent exceptions: Frances McDormand won her third Oscar for “Nomadland” after Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”) won the SAG, and Olivia Colman (“The Favorite”) denied 2019 SAG winner Glenn Close (“The Wife”). first Oscar.
Will history repeat itself? It looks like we have the kind of exciting movie that will give the Oscars a much-needed dose of suspense. Emma Stone won the British Film Academy's leading actress award last weekend for her gonzo role in “Poor Things.” If she had taken SAG, her career would have effectively been over. Gladstone's victory, and her moving acceptance speech, might be enough to return the momentum to the level where she received that long, warm ovation when “Killers of the Flower Moon” premiered at Cannes.
Gladstone would make history as the first Native American to win the Oscar for Leading Actress. Many people would love to witness that moment. But… there are still plenty of voters who aren't convinced that her screen time (she appears in less than a third of the three-and-a-half-hour film) deserves a leading actress Oscar. I'm starting to suspect that maybe they have to deal with it.
MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Winner: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Last: This category has been the most reliable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the Academy matching it 23 out of 29 times. However, there are exceptions, such as last year, when Anthony Hopkins won the Oscar for “The Father,” prevailing over SAG winner Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”).
Will history repeat itself? On the heels of his win at the British Film Academy last weekend, Murphy's win all but ensures he will win the Oscar. Voters might have chosen Paul Giamatti for his excellent work as the cantankerous high school teacher in “The Holdovers,” but there is precedent for lead actor honors going to actors playing important historical figures. Lincoln, Churchill, Patton, Ray Charles… I could go on (and on and on). And in “Oppenheimer,” Murphy plays the title character in the film that will win the Academy Award for best picture, feverishly inhabiting the skin of a man at war with himself. Great movie, quiet intensity, three hour duration. Game, set, match.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, “The Remains”
Last: The SAG Award winner took home the Oscar 21 of 28 times, including last year when Jamie Lee Curtis won for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” a strong indication of the film's strength. (Kate Winslet won this category in 2009 for “The Reader,” but she was nominated and won the Oscar for lead actress for that performance.)
Will history repeat itself? “The Holdovers” premiered at the Telluride Film Festival on the last day of August. Since then, Randolph has won 36 awards and I'm sure he'll take home the Indie Spirit award on Sunday. Her moving portrayal of a black cafeteria manager grieving the loss of a son in Vietnam and trying to maintain her patience with the two selfish men she's stuck with at a New England prep school has been that undeniable. Had Oscar voters embraced (or even seen) “The Color Purple,” this might have been a more interesting conversation that included Danielle Brooks' breakout role as Sofia. As things stand, Randolph is expected to win one more prize, the biggest one. I don't hear anyone complain. (You heard that moving speech, right?)
MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Winner: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Last: The SAG winner has won the Oscar 18 times in 27 years, including the last seven.
Will history repeat itself? Supossely Yes. When this awards season began about 100 years ago (at least it feels like it), this category seemed like a fun race between Downey's sly turn as Admiral Lewis Strauss, Oppenheimer's antagonist, and Ryan Gosling's hilarious portrayal of Ken . Barbie's partner in love questions the meaning of his existence. Personally, I would (and have) voted for Gosling, as his heartfelt work and deadpan comedic chops helped make “Barbie” an absolute delight. But Downey has the better narrative (apparently it's his time) and a meaty role in the film that will win best picture. No disrespect to Downey or the venom he brought to the role. It's a little strange how one-sided this race became.
