A year after Harry Styles surprised, but didn't surprise, with his victory over Beyoncé with his album of the year, the stars of the music world will gather with equal parts excitement and trepidation on Sunday night for the 66th installment of the Grammy Awards.
Top nominees include SZA, who is up for nine awards; Phoebe Bridgers and Victoria Monét, both with seven nominations; and Jon Batiste, Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo and Miley Cyrus, with six nominations each. In a change from the last two years, the Recording Academy reduced the number of nominees from 10 to eight in the four main categories of album, record and song of the year and best new artist.
Trevor Noah will host Sunday's show, which will air live on CBS from Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles. Among the scheduled acts are SZA, Eilish, Rodrigo, Dua Lipa, Joni Mitchell, Billy Joel, Luke Combs, Burna Boy, Travis Scott and U2.
Here are my predictions for how the night will play out in eight major categories, offered with the caveat that a Grammy ceremony without any big surprises… well, that's not a Grammy at all.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Jon Batiste, “World Music Radio”
Boygenius, “The Record”
Miley Cyrus, “Endless Summer Vacation”
Lana Del Rey, “Did you know there is a tunnel under Ocean Blvd?”
Janelle Monáe, “The Age of Pleasure”
Olivia Rodrigo, “Guts”
Taylor Swift, “Midnight”
SZA, “SOS”
Should win: SZA, “SOS”
Will win: Taylor Swift, “Midnight”
Even a hardcore Swiftie would probably admit that the pop superstar has made more impressive albums than “Midnights” (although the casual way she roasts “some idiot” on “Question…?” still makes me laugh almost a year and a half later the LP came out). But between her record-breaking Eras tour, her successful re-recordings of her previous work, and her much-scrutinized romance with the NFL's Travis Kelce, Swift was too imposing a presence in 2023 for Grammy voters not to feel like she had won the academy's most prestigious award. prize. An award for album of the year would be the fourth in that category, more than any artist in Grammy history, including Frank Sinatra, Paul Simon and Stevie Wonder, who each have three. If she were a voter, she would choose SZA's “SOS,” a vulnerable, bold collection of pop-rock-R&B songs that sits precisely at the nexus of commercial success, critical acclaim, and cultural impact; in other words, the sweet spot. , which the Grammys intend to occupy. The problem for SZA is that, in more than six decades of handing out trophies, the academy has awarded album of the year to only three black women: Natalie Cole, Whitney Houston and Lauryn Hill. Disheartening odds and one discouraging fact.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Jon Batiste, “Adoration”
Boygenius, “It's not strong enough”
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”
Billie Eilish, “What was I made for?”
Victoria Monet, “About my mother”
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire”
Taylor Swift, “Antihero”
SZA, “Kill Bill”
Should win: Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”
Will win: Billie Eilish, “What was I made for?”
Grammy voters love to award record of the year to a carefully crafted retro song in the style of Lizzo's “About Damn Time” (which won last year) or Silk Sonic's “Leave the Door Open” (which won in 2022 ). So Monét has a chance with the lush retro-soul style of “On My Mama,” as does Cyrus with the disco-revivalist “Flowers.” But what voters In fact Love is giving this award to Eilish and her slash producer brother, Finneas, who took it two years in a row with “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted” in 2020 and 2021. If the brothers win again with their beautifully ballad discouraged from “Barbie,” they will join Simon and Bruno Mars in the three-shift club.
THE SONG OF THE YEAR
“A&W,” written by Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey and Sam Dew (performed by Lana Del Rey)
“Anti-Hero,” written by Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift (performed by Taylor Swift)
“Butterfly,” written by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (performed by Jon Batiste)
“Dance the Night,” written by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (performed by Dua Lipa)
“Flowers,” written by Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein and Michael Pollack (performed by Miley Cyrus)
“Kill Bill,” written by Rob Bisel, Carter Lang and Solána Rowe (performed by SZA)
“Vampire”, written by Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo (performed by Olivia Rodrigo)
“What Was I Made For?” written by Billie Eilish O'Connell and Finneas O'Connell (played by Billie Eilish)
Should win: “Vampire”
Will win: “What was I made for?”
Although she has been nominated more times than any other human being (including Burt Bacharach and Paul McCartney), Swift has never won this Grammy, a confusing statistic for the woman widely hailed as the most influential songwriter of her generation. However, Swift's seventh nomination for song of the year (a songwriter award compared to the record of the year award, which is given to artists and producers) seems less certain to bring her her first win, especially because Eilish's melody is here too. Like previous winners like Adele’s “Hello” and Ed Sheeran’s “Thinking Out Loud,” the stripped-down recorded version of “What Was I Made For?” showcases poignant lyrics and intricate melody, while Swift’s “Anti-Hero” relies more on production and rhythm. All that said, Rodrigo’s “Vampire” gets my nonexistent vote for its A+ rhyme of “bloodsucker” and “fame-f—er.”
BEST NEW ARTIST
Graciela Abrams
Fred again…
ice spice
jelly roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monet
The war and the treaty
Should win: ice spice
Will win: ice spice
The most competitive best new artist race in years could be decided by a pair of vote-splitting cases: R&B voters will likely split between Monét and former Disney child star Coco Jones, while country voters may align behind the rapper turned artist. singer Jelly Roll and married duo War and Treaty. (Fun fact: At 39, a triumphant Jelly Roll would be the oldest solo artist to win this award.) That scenario would leave a path open for folk rocker Noah Kahan and rapper Ice Spice, in which case it's worth noting that a woman has carried the category for the last six ceremonies.
BEST RAP ALBUM
Drake and 21 Savage, “His Loss”
Killer Mike, “Michael”
Metro Boomin, “Heroes and Villains”
Nas, “King's Disease III”
Travis Scott, “Utopia”
Should win: Drake and 21 Savage, “His Loss”
Will win: Travis Scott, “Utopia”
After pulling “Certified Lover Boy” from the 2021 competition in apparent protest over the Grammys' dubious history with hip-hop, the genre's biggest act is back in the hunt this year with their toxic, 21 Savage. Could the optics of Drake's return to the Grammy stage — and the message he would send to younger rappers who aren't sure if the Grammys matter — be a reason for voters to go his way? Consider that Scott, who is arguably gaining more prominence among kids these days, is already booked to perform on Sunday's broadcast.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Kelsea Ballerini, “Rolling up the welcome mat”
Osborne Brothers, “Osborne Brothers”
Zach Bryan, “Zach Bryan”
Tyler Childers, “Rustin' in the Rain”
Lainey Wilson, “Bell Bottom Country”
Should win: Lainey Wilson, “Bell Bottom Country”
Will win: Tyler Childers, “Rustin' in the Rain”
The most notable presence in this category is the album. No nominated: “One Thing at a Time” by Morgan Wallen, who was banned from the academy entirely for the third year in a row after he was caught on video drunk using the N-word in 2021. (“Last Night” by Wallen, which headlined the charts, he got (a nod to the country song, but that award recognizes songwriters, and Wallen didn't write it.) The “One Thing at a Time” snub, not only the biggest country album of 2023, but the biggest album of the year of any genre, can be taken as the academy's disapproval of Wallen's behavior, most likely reflecting voters' longstanding preference for earthier sounds like Childers' bluegrass-infused one.
BEST ROCK ALBUM
Foo Fighters, “But here we are”
Greta Van Fleet, “Star Catcher”
Metallica, “72 Seasons”
Paramore, “This is why”
Queens of the Stone Age, “In Times New Roman…”
Should win: Foo Fighters, “But here we are”
Will win: Foo Fighters, “But here we are”
With five wins in this category, including 2021's “Medicine at Midnight,” Foo Fighters have taken home the Rock Album Grammy more times than any other act. So let's imagine Dave Grohl and company are united with “But Here We Are,” which has the added bonus of being very good: a sad but vital meditation on loss inspired by the recent deaths of the band's longtime drummer, Taylor Hawkins. . and Grohl's mother.
BEST SONG WRITTEN FOR VISUAL MEDIA
“Barbie World”, from “Barbie”, written by Naija Gaston, Ephrem Louis Lopez Jr. and Onika Maraj (performed by Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice with Aqua)
“Dance the Night”, from “Barbie”, written by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (performed by Dua Lipa)
“I'm Just Ken”, from “Barbie”, written by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (performed by Ryan Gosling)
“Lift Me Up”, from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”, written by Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Robyn Fenty and Temilade Openiyi (performed by Rihanna)
“What Was I Made For?”, from “Barbie,” written by Billie Eilish O'Connell and Finneas O'Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)
Should win: “What was I made for?”
Will win: “What was I made for?”
Before “Barbie”’s dominance in this year’s category, no film had ever submitted four songs for this award in a single year. (“Waiting to Exhale” came closest with three nominations in 1997). Given Eilish's track record, “What Was I Made For?” – favorite for the original song award at the Oscars in March – he is almost certain to win this Grammy along with the others who will take home Sunday night.
