Cars in the parking lot of a Chevrolet dealership on June 20, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. A cyberattack on CDK Global, a software provider that helps dealers manage sales and service, has paralyzed workflow at approximately 15,000 dealerships in the United States and Canada.
Scott Olson | fake images
DETROIT – U.S. auto sales during the first half of the year are expected to increase 2.9% compared to a year ago, but there are concerns that the auto industry will not be able to continue the momentum during the last six months of the year. .
Vehicle inventory levels are growing, incentives are increasing and there is growing uncertainty during the second half of the year around the economy, interest rates and the US presidential election, according to Cox Automotive.
The automotive data and research firm expects sales growth to slow during the second half of the year to end 2024 at 15.7 million units, about a 1.3% increase compared to 2023. And unlike In recent years, growth has come from commercial sales compared to more profitable sales to consumers.
“Overall, we expect some weakness in the coming months,” Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke said during a mid-year review briefing on Tuesday. “We're basically making some assumptions that we can't maintain the pace we've been seeing. But we're not expecting a collapse either.”
Good for consumers
These circumstances are largely good for consumers, some of whom have been waiting years to buy a new vehicle amid unprecedented new vehicle supply and record prices during the coronavirus pandemic.
They are a headwind for automakers, many of which posted record profits due to high demand and low availability of new vehicles during the global health crisis. Wall Street has been predicting challenges in vehicle prices and profits for most automakers compared to record or near-record levels in previous years.
New Tesla cars parked at a Tesla dealership on May 31, 2024 in Corte Madera, California.
Justin Sullivan | fake images
“There is a lot of uncertainty ahead, and this may make it difficult to take advantage of recent sales successes,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox, said during the briefing. “We are concerned that the second half of the year will not be able to maintain the growth we have seen so far.”
Rental, retail and leasing are showing signs of double-digit growth, while Cox expects the retail share of the overall industry to drop 9 percentage points from 2021 to about 79%.
Winners and losers
The sales “winners” during the first half of this year are expected to be General Motors, ToyotaEngine and honda engine, according to Cox.
Chesbrough said that if Toyota can continue its growth, it could once again challenge GM to position itself as the best-selling automaker in the U.S. The Japanese automaker surpassed all other automakers for the first time in 2021. .
Including low performers teslawith sales estimated to drop 14.3%, and stellantis, which is expected to drop 16.5% through June. Honda surpassed Stellantis in U.S. sales during the first half of the year, pushing the parent of Chrysler and Jeep to No. 6 in sales, down from its recent No. 4 ranking.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares said earlier this month that the company is correcting what he described as “arrogant” mistakes made by himself and the company at the automaker's U.S. operations that led to sales declines. , inflated inventories and investor concerns.
“Increased supply means we officially say goodbye to the seller's market that has defined the last four years…which means further deterioration in new vehicle gross revenue and dealer profitability,” Smoke said.
