U.Today – According to a recent analysis by on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, historical cycles suggest that a significant rally could be on the horizon by 2025.
According to IntoTheBlock, historically, the average duration between Bitcoin halving events and the subsequent peak is approximately 480 days. This pattern places the next expected peak in the summer of 2025.
Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years, cut the reward for mining new blocks in half. The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000. The Bitcoin block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Historically, halving events have been followed by substantial price increases, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoin entering the market often leads to increased demand.
In the current cycle, the Bitcoin price has seen a drop of almost 12% from its halving price of $63,900. While this drop may seem discouraging in the short term, it is not unprecedented. Previous cycles have also seen periods of consolidation or minor declines before the market gathered momentum for a major recovery.
Current market behavior suggests a period of accumulation, where investors and institutions may be positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated price increase.
Bitcoin faces a bearish September
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had fallen 0.26% over the past 24 hours to $54,398. September has historically been a tough month for US stocks and cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin’s price performance in the first week lends credence to the narrative.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen 8% this month, outperforming the average decline over the past decade of 5%. September is one of only two months with average losses since 2013, with June being the only other negative month with an average price move of -0.35% for that period. On average, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin over the past decade.
However, Bitcoin's September decline has often been followed by increases. Bitcoin has often seen increases in October, a month considered “Uptober.” Since 2013, Bitcoin has had an average 5% drop in September, followed by a 22% gain in October and a 46% increase in November in the cryptocurrency market's 2021 bull run.
This article was originally published on U.Today
