China has been giving the democratic island of Taiwan – and the rest of the world – a taste of its growing military prowess in recent months.
In the run-up to Taiwan's elections in January, the island's information sphere was bombarded with coordinated cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
Beijing claims Taiwan as its own and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control.
Following the takeover of the Taiwanese government last month, Chinese military might was on full display as the Chinese military surrounded Taiwan in two days of exercises during which Chinese state media published an animated video showing missiles falling on the main Taiwanese cities.
After the exercises, a Chinese military spokesman said the country's armed forces remained fully prepared, highly vigilant and ready to take decisive action regarding Taiwan.
Later in May, China's newest and most advanced aircraft carrier also set sail from Shanghai on its first sea trials, placing the Chinese navy second only to the United States in number of aircraft carriers in its fleet.
But despite the relentless display of the military's growing sophistication, some analysts question how much confidence Chinese President Xi Jinping has in his military.
Last week, Xi told a military conference that there were “deep-rooted problems” across the military and that change was needed.
His comments came after a ceremony in April in which he unveiled the biggest reorganization of the Chinese military in almost 10 years.
“It was a shock and shows that Xi is not satisfied with the existing structure and current capabilities of the Chinese military,” said Yang Zi, a doctoral student at Nanyang Technological University's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). in Singapore, he told Al Jazeera.
Purges and corruption
For many observers, the most unexpected element of the reorganization was the elimination of the Strategic Support Force (SSF).
“There have been problems, purges and corruption investigations in other divisions of the military,” Christina Chen, a researcher at the Taiwanese security think tank Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), told Al Jazeera.
“But we haven't heard of similar problems within the Strategic Support Force, so there was little indication before this announcement that the SSF was on track to be reorganized.”
Xi himself participated in the creation of the SSF, which was unveiled in the last major Chinese military restructuring in 2015.
The SSF was an elite body tasked with accelerating the development of the military's cyber and space warfare capabilities and improving inter-service and theater data sharing by 2020.
But in mid-2019, a white paper from China's Defense Ministry found that SSF progress had been slow even as advanced data and intelligence were expected to play an increasingly decisive role in future conflicts.
The end of the SSF indicates a loss of faith in the ability of the 2015 reforms to prepare for such conflicts and suggests that the Chinese leadership will play an even greater role in military modernization, according to Chen.
Instead of the SSF, the fields of space, information and cyber warfare are being placed within their own divisions directly under the supervision of the Central Military Commission, which Xi chairs.
The new structure will be vital to helping the Chinese military “fight and win in modern warfare,” Xi said when announcing the reforms.
Modern warfare is a field currently dominated by the U.S. military, said Chen, who sees the reorganization as another indication of Beijing's determination to catch up to Washington.
Beijing and Washington are on opposite sides in several disputes in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
Washington has accused Beijing, which has been involved in a series of clashes with the Philippines over several disputed reefs, of threatening regional peace with its aggressive behavior, while Beijing has accused Washington of meddling in Asian affairs that do not concern it.
“Xi's long-term goal is to surpass the United States militarily and make China the leading military power in the region and the world,” Chen said.
'Ruthless adaptability'
The military reorganization comes amid what has been described as the largest purge in Chinese military history, in which key leaders were fired or disappeared from view.
Much of the turmoil has taken place within the military's Elite Rocket Force, which oversees Beijing's tactical and nuclear missiles and was supposed to be among the most capable military units.
“Last year's Rocket Force purges demonstrated that the Chinese military is not as ready for prime time as we had previously imagined,” said RSIS's Yang.
Prominent figures have also disappeared. Defense Minister Li Shuangfu, who previously served as deputy commander of the SSF and was considered loyal to Xi, disappeared last year.
Beijing confirmed that Li had been removed from office in October, nearly two months after he disappeared from view.
The fact that high-ranking officials and officials apparently close to Xi have not been spared the purge underscores the changing landscape of loyalty and power in Chinese elite politics, according to Shaoyu Yuan, a scholar of Chinese studies at Rutgers University in USA.
“The removed individuals may have initially risen under Xi's patronage, but their dismissal signals a recalibration of loyalty and trust as their strategic vision and perception of potential threats evolves,” Yuan told Al Jazeera.
In Yang's view, the purges and recent military reorganization suggest that Xi has little faith in commanders who have risen through the ranks in recent times, or in past reforms, even though he played a key role in their promotions and changes. structural. .
While that could raise questions about Xi's decisions, Yuan said the Chinese president's reactions to his lack of faith demonstrate his ruthless adaptability, as well as his willingness to recalibrate his approach to maintain control and pursue his vision.
“His determination to eliminate any structure or individual that does not align with his current strategic objectives, regardless of their past contributions, can reinforce his image as a decisive leader who prioritizes the current needs of the State over past loyalties,” he said.
Yuan adds that in the power dynamic around the president, loyalty must be continually earned.
“This approach can create a cycle in which trust is perpetually conditional, creating the need for constant reaffirmation of loyalty,” he said.
At a recent military conference, Xi emphasized that military officers, especially those at senior levels, must have the courage to set aside their prestige and acknowledge their shortcomings.
“They must reflect deeply on themselves… make serious rectifications, solve problems from the root of their thinking,” he said.
RSIS's Yang hopes there will be a greater emphasis on political work within the military, building on last year's focus on Xi Jinping Thought, the president's political, economic and social philosophy, across the Communist Party. .
According to Yang, such political work could take time away from crucial military training, or encourage talented officers to keep their heads down to avoid the risk of being targeted by future purges.
“He [Xi] “He has no qualms about shaking things up and letting heads roll,” Yang said. “But in the end, only time will tell whether these changes will truly improve the Chinese military's combat capabilities.”
