One of the most surprising foreign policy ideas that Trump's team has proposed on the eve of his rise to power is military intervention in Mexico to go after drug cartels and possibly stop immigrants heading to the United States.
The idea seemed so far-fetched and provocative — launching U.S. troops against a peaceful neighbor — that Mexican officials thought it was nothing more than Trump's bluster intended to rev up his base.
But now, President-elect Donald Trump's selection of Ronald D. Johnson as ambassador to Mexico has people wondering whether he is serious.
Johnson is both a former US military officer (a Green Beret) and a former CIA official. And in his previous role as U.S. ambassador to El Salvador, Johnson was an enthusiastic supporter of Trump's policies in support of his president, Nayib Bukele, an authoritarian widely accused of human rights abuses in a massive crackdown on gangs. and in silencing dissent.
Trump has already threatened Mexico with 25% tariffs on many of its exports to the United States – including tomatoes, avocados, tequila and auto parts – if President Claudia Sheinbaum's government does not “do more” to stop the entry of migrants and fentanyl. to the United States. United States on its southern border with Mexico.
Many economists say such action would not only skyrocket prices for American consumers but would likely also send the Mexican economy into free fall, which in turn could spur greater migration to the United States.
“Mexico can expect enormous pressure,” Maureen Meyer, vice president of programs at the Washington Office on Latin America, said in an interview. The focus will be almost exclusively on immigration and law enforcement, he predicted, while “issues that concern the human rights community (reproductive rights, climate, democracy) will take a step back.”
She and others said that will likely be true throughout Latin America as a Trump administration strengthens common cause with right-wing governments and parties in Argentina, Brazil and elsewhere, but will have the greatest impact in Mexico because of its border. 2,000 miles with the United States and its close economic and cultural ties.
Johnson, not to be confused with the Wisconsin Republican senator of the same name, has resided in Florida since resigning as ambassador to El Salvador at the end of the first Trump administration. He is an Alabama native, married, with four adult children and five grandchildren, and spent time in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of his CIA duties. He also worked in counterinsurgency operations during El Salvador's civil war in the 1980s, when the United States supported the right-wing government against left-wing guerrillas.
“Ron will work closely with our great candidate for Secretary of State, [Florida Sen.] Marco Rubio, to advance our nation's security and prosperity through strong America First foreign policies,” Trump said on Truth Social in announcing the nomination this month.
“Together, we will end immigration crime, stop the illegal flow of fentanyl and other dangerous drugs into our country, and make America safe again!” Trump wrote. This week, Trump added a plan to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorists, a move that could be used as authorization to deploy U.S. troops.
In his campaign platform, Trump said he would order the Pentagon to use “special forces, cyber warfare, and other covert and overt actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure, and operations.”
But it remains unclear how many of these steps Trump could take unilaterally. Terrorist designations generally require action by other agencies, such as the State Department, and some members of Congress who advocate a tougher approach against Mexican drug trafficking are, however, reluctant to send U.S. troops into the fight without the approval of the Mexican government.
In Mexico, news of Johnson's nomination was received cautiously, with many seeing a clear sign of the limited approach envisioned by the Trump administration.
Johnson's “résumé is the message,” Jorge Castañeda, Mexico's former foreign minister, said in an essay for the news website Nexos. “Johnson has no experience in economic, business or financial matters. “He doesn't come to Mexico for that.”
Where Johnson does have extensive experience is in counterinsurgency.
Johnson will likely “demand a change in security strategy in Mexico,” said Mexican commentator León Krauze. “Trump likes spectacle and has long considered the possibility of broadcasting to his electorate images of unilateral raids into Mexican territory to arrest the main drug lords, Hollywood style.”
Many in Mexico are tired of American intervention in security matters and blame the United States in part for backing former President Felipe Calderón's military attack on drug cartels starting in 2006, which unleashed devastating levels of violence that They persist to this day. Still others, equally exhausted by the high rates of murders and kidnappings, and having lost confidence in Mexican law enforcement, often bought by criminals, have begun to lean toward welcoming American troops.
Security cooperation between the United States and Mexico declined greatly during the presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who accused US forces of “abusive meddling” in 2020 when former Mexican Defense Secretary Salvador Cienfuegos was arrested at the airport. Los Angeles International on suspicion of drug trafficking. traffic.
López Obrador forced the Trump administration to return Cienfuegos to Mexico, where he received an important military decoration. The damage strained relations between the United States and Mexico and hampered the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's work in Mexico.
Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, is likely to be equally reticent about cooperating with Trump.
After his initial threats about military attacks and tariffs, she phoned him at her Mar-a-Lago resort and then posted on X that Mexico would cooperate with the United States on relevant issues, but that the country would not bend to the will of the United States. United States as it did in the war on drugs that began in 2006.
“We are going to collaborate… but without subordinating ourselves,” he wrote. “We will always defend Mexico as a free, sovereign and independent country.”
Avoiding the militaristic approach of some of his predecessors could put Sheinbaum on a collision course with Trump and Johnson.
Sheinbaum “is not a Bukele type,” said Rep. Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat who specializes in Latin America and has been highly critical of the Salvadoran leader. “She wants good relations with Mexico… but she's not looking to kiss Trump's ring.”
Another important question is how Johnson would address human rights issues in Mexico.
In El Salvador, where he was ambassador from 2019 to 2021, Johnson refrained from criticizing Bukele as the government detained tens of thousands of people in an effort to reduce gang crime. Some had gang affiliations, but many did not. According to human rights organizations, most were denied due process, innocent people, including children, were detained, and hundreds were tortured in prison and died. Homicide rates decreased substantially, although it is not known to what extent.
Johnson also failed to sound the alarm about Bukele's attempts to pack Congress and the country's Supreme Court with loyalists in what critics have described as a power grab that eroded El Salvador's hard-fought democracy.
Bukele spoke frequently of his warm friendship with Johnson. The two were photographed sailing together in the Pacific off the coast of El Salvador. In June, long after Johnson had left his post as ambassador, he joined Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson and Rep. Matt Gaetz in attending Bukele's inauguration for a questionably legal second term.
It is highly unlikely that Johnson would have a similar relationship with Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female president, a climate scientist by training and representative of a left-wing political party.
Wilkinson reported from Washington and Linthicum from Mexico City. A special correspondent in San Salvador also contributed.
