Islamabad, Pakistan: Iran's airstrikes Tuesday night inside Pakistani territory in the southwestern province of Balochistan threaten to drag Islamabad into a broader regional conflict, analysts warn, less than a month before national elections.
The attacks, which Iran said targeted an armed group Jaish al-Adl (Justice Army), killed at least two children and injured three more, according to a statement from Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The ministry said it “strongly condemned” the incident, which took place near the border town of Panjgur, calling it a violation of Pakistani sovereignty and warned Iran of “serious consequences.”
But what could those consequences be?
Greater bilateral commitment
The attacks coincided with an increase in interactions between Pakistani and Iranian officials, both civilian and military, in recent days.
Hours before Iranian jets dropped bombs on Balochistan, Pakistani caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar had met Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Pakistan's acting foreign minister Jalil Abbas Jilani met Iran's special representative for Afghanistan affairs Hassan Kazmi Qomi in Islamabad earlier this week, where the two discussed the need for “better coordination for the regional stability”.
foreign minister @JalilJilani today received the Special Representative of Iran for Afghanistan Affairs, Hassan Kazmi Qomi. The Foreign Minister underlined Pakistan's commitment to a peaceful and stable Afghanistan and emphasized the need for better coordination for regional stability. He too… pic.twitter.com/wyT6DcDEk7
— Spokesperson 🇵🇰 MoFA (@ForeignOfficePk) January 15, 2024
The two countries also participated in a day-long naval exercise on January 16 in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Despite these recent commitments and the 2022 decision between the two countries to form a joint task force for border management, low-scale clashes on the border have remained a constant feature.
Iranian media reported in December that the country's Interior Minister had issued a warning to Pakistan to prevent the Jaish al-Adl group from launching attacks in Iran, after the deaths of 11 police officers in the southeastern city of Rask, in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan, which borders Pakistan.
In May 2023, six Iranian border guards were killed in clashes near the border with Pakistan, prompting Iran to issue a warning calling on Pakistan to “do more.” A month earlier, four Pakistani soldiers were also killed in cross-border firing in Pakistan's Balochistan province.
The countries share a border approximately 900 kilometers (559 mi) long in southwestern Pakistan and southeastern Iran. They have accused each other of harboring armed groups.
Pakistan has been facing an uprising by Baloch rebels demanding secession for decades.
On the other hand, Iran has demanded that Pakistan act against Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni armed group that has attacked Iranian officials, allegedly demanding better living conditions for the population of Sistan-Balochistan, the country's most impoverished province.
Iran's attack inside Pakistani territory, coming at a time when Israel's war on Gaza threatens to spill over into the region, deserves a mature response, said Mosharraf Zaidi of the Islamabad-based think tank Tabadlab. Iran has also recently launched attacks inside Syria and Iraq.
“Pakistan's response so far is exactly what it should be. The Iranians seek to provoke an unnecessary reaction,” he told Al Jazeera. “The real risk right now is the broader dangers of Pakistan being sucked into a conflict in which it is not a major player and in which it will become further distracted.”
A military response?
On the other hand, Kamran Bokhari, senior director of the Washington, D.C.-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said Pakistan could respond with its own attacks, although that could mean a potentially longer-term conflict for Pakistan.
“After Afghanistan in the west and India in the east, this could open up a conflict on a third border. I’m not really sure if Islamabad is ready for that,” he told Al Jazeera.
Pakistan has summoned Iran's top diplomat in Islamabad to register its protest. Ihsanullah Tipu, a security analyst, said he expected Pakistan to work both on a diplomatic response and consider potential options for a military response.
“For Pakistan to fight back, both the justification and the pressure are there. It could seek a public apology through diplomatic channels from top Iranian officials, but if those efforts fail, Pakistan could also consider a military response to the Iranian attack,” Tipu told Al Jazeera.
Tipu, director of The Khorasan Diary, a news and investigative portal that tracks and analyzes security issues in the region, expressed surprise over Iran's escalation despite the continuing security conflict in the Middle East region.
He said Iranian actions would have a lasting effect and implications on bilateral relations, both in the political and security spheres.
“By carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, it has given a sort of justification to Pakistan to follow the same path in response to attacking the sanctuaries of anti-Pakistan militant groups, which Pakistan considers to be based in Iran or even elsewhere.” “added Tipu.
Bokhari said the Iranian airstrikes could push Pakistan to seek “greater alignment” with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
“Each of these countries has an interest in making sure that Iran is contained. The attack on Pakistan is just one element of Iran's broader confrontation with the United States,” she stated.
“Tehran sees Pakistan as a pawn in this high-stakes brinkmanship with Washington.”
