The two remaining candidates vying for the Iranian presidency, Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian, offer voters different visions for the country's future.
However, experts say their differing views are unlikely to lead to a significant change in Iran's foreign policy.
Pezeskhian, a former health minister and surgeon, came first in Friday's election but fell short of the 50 percent needed for an outright victory, forcing him to take part in a second round against second-placed Jalili, to be held July 5th.
Friday's snap election was to choose the successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in late May.
Pezeshkian stands out in the race as the only non-conservative candidate allowed to run.
He had the backing of reformists such as former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose participation likely indicates that Pezeshkian will pursue a key reformist foreign policy goal: renegotiating a nuclear deal to ease sanctions on Iran's economy and ease tensions with West.
The 2015 deal between Iran and China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief was signed under centrist President Hassan Rouhani.
But three years later, then-US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal, crushing the hopes of those who believed it would have paved the way for Iran's economic revival.
Instead, the United States imposed tough new sanctions, and Iranian hardliners found new arguments to say that the West could not be trusted. Negotiations to revive the deal have since largely stalled.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Jalili is considered the most rigid representative of conservative politics.
A victory for this staunch hardliner – with the support of other conservative candidates in the first round – would mark an even more confrontational approach towards the West, especially the United States, analysts say.
Having served as chief nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2012, Jalili opposed the idea of Iran discussing or reaching agreements with other countries over its uranium enrichment program, a position he maintained for the 2015 deal.
I'm not the only one who makes decisions
Regardless of the candidates' markedly different stances, Iran's president operates within a limited mandate.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under his command have most of the say when it comes to foreign policy.
“If there is a 180-degree change between a Trump or a [current US President Joe] “The Biden administration, in the overall US trajectory, in Iran, with a change of presidency, you get a difference of 45 percent; it is not insignificant but it does not have as much impact as in other countries,” said Ali Vaez, head of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group.
“There are elements of continuity that limit the degree of change that can be seen.”
This has been cited as one of the reasons behind the 40 percent turnout in Friday's election – the lowest in Iran's history since the 1979 Islamic Revolution – as voters appear to have given up hope that much could improve with a change of president.
A reformist president would have to contend with ultraconservative forces that dominate Iran's parliament, while his ability to engage with the West would be tested by the country's regional engagement, which has put it at odds with Western allies.
In April, Iran launched a missile and drone attack against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli assault on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, which killed senior IRGC commanders.
The unprecedented give-and-take came amid heightened regional tensions as Israel's war on Gaza drags on and the potential for an all-out war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon looms larger.
But while regional policies have long been tightly managed by the IRGC, nuclear negotiations with world powers are still on the table.
On this issue, the president can set the tone and attitude, if only for marginal changes, said Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University.
“When it comes to the nuclear deal, the president can be very important in exploring the possibilities of different types of outcomes,” Nasr said. “Pezeshkian would defend the start of talks with the United States, while Jalili would not.”
Nuclear diplomacy is crucial for Iranians as it directly affects the country's economy, the main concern of most Iranians. Successive governments have failed to address currency depreciation and inflation, which they have blamed on the Western sanctions regime.
“To get sanctions lifted, you have to be interested in talking to the West; if you have an intransigent president, that makes a difference,” Nasr said.
The hardline approach
A Jalili presidency would be in line with the approach of the late Raisi, who pledged during his three-year term not to link the economy to nuclear talks with foreign powers.
Instead, the government decided to rely on Iran's domestic capabilities, while turning its business eastward, strengthening ties with China, Russia and neighboring countries.
Under the so-called “resistance economy,” Iran last year signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia brokered by China that ended a years-long cold war between the regional rivals.
Raisi also pushed for Iran to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the country became a member of the BRICS bloc earlier this year.
But the so-called turn to the East produced no tangible results in terms of improving the economy – something the conservative camp has acknowledged – leaving any future president needing to strike a balance when it comes to direction.
“Jalili will not be able to completely avoid talks with the West, as Pezeshkian will not focus only on nuclear talks,” said Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh, director of DiploHouse, a think tank focused on foreign policy.
He added that Iran's foreign policy will also depend on external factors – most importantly, the US elections in November.
“The challenge is not from inside Iran but from outside: whether Trump or Biden wins,” he said. “Even if Pezeskhian is president, he will face external, rather than internal, challenges.”
