EXPLAINER
Courts on Tuesday will hear cases involving Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the Move Forward party, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Senate elections.
The future of Thailand's prime minister, as well as his main opposition party, looks set to be decided this week in four key court rulings that risk triggering a new political crisis.
The courts are due to announce rulings on Tuesday in four cases involving Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the main opposition party Move Forward, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as the electoral process for a new Senate.
Thailand's politics have been marred for years by a struggle between its military-backed royalist-conservative establishment and populist and reformist parties such as those backed by Thaksin and Move Forward, which have led to mass protests and military coups.
“These cases highlight the fragility and complexity of Thailand's political climate,” ANZ Research said in a note, warning of the possibility of new protests.
What is the case of the prime minister?
Srettha Thavisin, who made a fortune in real estate before entering politics, became prime minister last August after Pita Limjaroenrat, who led Move Forward to victory in the May election, was prevented from form government.
On Tuesday he faces a decision – or potentially another hearing date – from the Constitutional Court over whether he violated the Constitution by appointing someone to his cabinet who had a previous conviction.
Srettha, who denies any wrongdoing, could face dismissal if the court rules against him.
If he is removed, then his ruling party, Pheu Thai, would have to propose a new candidate for prime minister and parliament would have to vote on his appointment.
What is the case against Move Forward?
A second case could lead to the dissolution of the reformist Move Forward party, which won the most seats in last year's election, as well as the largest share of votes.
The Constitutional Court is due to announce its decision on a complaint by the Electoral Commission alleging that the party broke the law by campaigning for reform of the royal insult law.
Move Forward denies any wrongdoing.
The estate abandoned its calls for reform after the Constitutional Court ruled in January that the call amounted to an attempt to overthrow the monarchy.
Its predecessor party, Future Forward, was also dissolved by court ruling after performing well in the 2019 elections.
What about Thaksin?
Thaksin, the telecommunications tycoon who dominated Thai politics and was ousted by a military coup in 2006, returned to Thailand last year after Srettha's government took office.
On Tuesday, a Bangkok criminal court is likely to formally charge him with royal insult in relation to a media interview he gave in 2015.
The court will then decide whether or not to grant bail to Thaksin, who has said he is innocent. “This case has no merit,” he told reporters earlier this month.
Thailand's lese majeste law, one of the strictest in the world, carries a maximum prison sentence of up to 15 years for each perceived insult.
The 74-year-old returned to Thailand to attend a rock star's reception last August after 15 years of self-imposed exile.
And the senators?
The Constitutional Court will also issue a decision on Tuesday on the ongoing selection of a new 200-member Senate, after accepting a petition questioning whether parts of the process, which took place over three successive weeks, were legal.
If the process is canceled or delayed, it would temporarily extend the mandate of military-appointed lawmakers who play a key role in forming the government, including last year's maneuver that blocked Move Forward.
The current upper house was hand-picked by the military following a 2014 coup that overthrew an elected Pheu Thai government that had been led by Thaksin's sister, who still lives in self-imposed exile.
The process to elect the next Senate began on June 9 and the third and final stage is scheduled for June 23.
