There are growing calls for US President Joe Biden to step down as the Democratic Party's candidate following his poor performance in a presidential debate against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
The 81-year-old president's halting performance during the June 27 debate has raised questions and doubts about his ability to lead another four years. During the debate, Biden appeared to lose his train of thought and at times looked exhausted or confused.
A damage control campaign has since been launched, with the president and his supporters working to reassure voters that he is fit and will not step aside.
But some within the Democratic field appear unsatisfied: The list of representatives calling for Biden to drop out of the campaign is growing.
Here's what we know about how the debate has affected Biden and who might replace him:
Why did the debate affect Biden?
The most significant impact of Biden’s debate performance is that it intensified doubts about his ability that now threaten his chance of winning the presidential election in November, experts say. That adds to simmering discontent with the way the Biden administration has handled inflation, the Gaza war and immigration at the southern border with Mexico.
An Ipsos poll showed that after the presidential debate, voters' confidence in Biden's mental fitness fell from 28 percent to 20 percent.
Presidential debates have been a major part of American elections since they were first broadcast in 1960 and have proven crucial in swaying voters toward the better speaker.
According to an analysis by the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, after Sunday's debate, voters' preferences leaned towards Trump by an average of 3.5 percentage points. Before the debate, Trump led Biden by an average of 1.5 points.
Another opinion poll by Ipsos showed voter support after the debate for both candidates tied at 40 percent.
Analysts say even small changes are crucial in what is shaping up to be a close election in a country deeply polarized along political ideologies.
Which Democrats have called for Biden to be replaced?
Within the Democratic Party, five members of the U.S. House of Representatives have called for Biden to step aside: Reps. Seth Moulton (Massachusetts), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Raul Grijalva (Arizona), Mike Quigley (Illinois) and Angie Craig (Minnesota).
On Sunday, a separate group of Democrats in a virtual meeting convened by House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) discussed how to pressure Biden to step aside, according to The Associated Press.
What if Biden drops out of the race?
It is almost unprecedented for a candidate to step down so close to an election. If that happens, the Democrats would have to put forward another candidate.
President Biden could resign and simply nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to continue in office, but her approval ratings have not been much higher than Biden's, casting doubt on her ability to defeat Trump.
However, Harris would inherit Biden's campaign funds, while any other candidate would start their campaign from scratch, campaign finance attorney Steve Roberts told The Hill.
If Biden steps down before the Aug. 19-22 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, one of the most likely scenarios is that the party will nominate another candidate to run in his place. Democrats last used this method in 1968, after the leading candidate, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, was assassinated just weeks before the convention.
The Democratic Party could also force Biden to resign by invoking the 25th Amendment, which states that if the president dies, becomes incapacitated or resigns, the vice president takes over. The vice president and a majority of Democrats in Congress could invoke the law declaring to the speaker of the House and Senate that the president is unfit and should be removed from office. The president could challenge this declaration. If the vice president and a majority of lawmakers disagree, the matter would be put to a two-thirds majority vote in Congress.
Could donors force Biden to resign?
Donors have considerable power, but it is unclear how they could affect a potential nomination.
Some Biden campaign donors have joined the list of people calling for Biden to resign, including former PayPal CEO William “Bill” Harris.
Harris, who donated $620,000 to Biden’s campaign in 2020, told reporters last week that Biden’s departure is “inevitable.” Harris is now leading a group of donors pledging $2 million to fund a series of debates among Democratic candidates that would set the stage for the selection of another candidate.
Some are threatening to withhold donations to Democrats until Biden resigns, putting pressure not just on the president but on the entire party.
In an opinion piece on the website Deadline, Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof urged other donors to impose an “embargo.”
Lindelof wrote: “When they text you asking for cash, reply that you won’t give them a cent and you won’t change your mind until there is change at the top of the ticket.”
So far, there have been no similar calls from major donors to Biden's campaign. Political action group Future Forward USA Action and venture capital firms Greylock Partners and Sequoia Capital are the top three donors to Biden's campaign, according to the website OpenSecrets.
Who could replace Biden and how would he fare against Trump?
Some have floated Michelle Obama as a possible candidate, but the former first lady has repeatedly said no. However, 50 percent of those polled said they would vote for Obama if she were on the ticket, putting her seven points ahead of Trump.
However, the most likely candidates include:
- Kamala HarrisVice President Harris, 59, is a direct replacement for Biden and likely a front-runner. Harris, a former prosecutor and senator from California, could appeal to younger voters as well as supporters in Black and other minority communities (she is of Indian and Jamaican descent). A vocal advocate for abortion rights, she could also attract more female voters. Rep. Adam Schiff told reporters he felt Harris would win “overwhelmingly” if she ran. However, Harris's approval ratings are not much higher than Biden's or Trump's. In the Ipsos poll, 43 percent of voters said they would vote for Harris. Another 538 poll puts Harris's approval ratings at 37 percent.
- Gavin Newsom: California Gov. Newsom has long been a Biden-Harris campaign surrogate and has recently been campaigning for the duo in the key states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Newsom, who had previously expressed ambitions to run in the 2028 election, is now being pitched as a possible Biden replacement. Some have also pointed to a possible Harris-Newsom ticket in November. Ipsos was polling him at 39 percent.
- Gretchen Whitmer: Governor Whitmer of the battleground state of Michigan is a star of the Democratic Party. The two-time governor rose to prominence in 2020 after confronting then-President Trump over his strict COVID-19 lockdown policies. Her popularity in Michigan was cemented after she won 52 percent of the vote in the 2022 election. Whitmer was originally slated to be the party's candidate in the 2028 election, but the Ipsos poll showed that 36 percent of American voters would choose her if she were on the ticket. It remains unclear which Democratic representatives will back Whitmer.
- JB Pritzker: Pritzker has been governor of Illinois since 2019 and has been tipped as a potential Biden replacement, largely because of his ability to stand up to Trump. He gained attention after his fierce attacks on Trump during the former president's criminal trial in New York. Following Trump's conviction in May, Pritzker called him a “criminal” and “an old man with an orange spray tan who fell asleep at his trial.” Pritzker is from one of the wealthiest families in the United States and holds progressive policies around abortion access, the minimum wage and expanding access to health care. About 34 percent of voters say they would choose Pritzker, according to Ipsos.
- Josh Shapiro: Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro previously served as the state’s attorney general. He handily won his election in the key mid-Atlantic state in 2022. Since taking office, he has had positive approval ratings and is seen as a level-headed leader — an advantage for Democrats over Trump in the swing state. One issue that could divide voters is Israel’s war in Gaza. Shapiro, who is Jewish, has spoken passionately in support of Israel, adding to a deep divide in the Democratic Party. Shapiro earned a 57 percent approval rating in a May election. survey by Siena College and local media.
