Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former U.S. President Donald Trump face off in Saturday's South Carolina primary in the race for the 2024 Republican Party presidential nomination.
Staunchly pro-Israel, Haley served as US ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, during which time she blocked the appointment of former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad as the world body's envoy to Libya. Despite taking a “consensus” approach to the abortion issue in an attempt to present herself as more “reasonable” to American voters than many of her conservative colleagues, critics said Haley is staunchly against abortion rights. abortion.
Recently, he said he believes frozen embryos are children, a move in support of the Alabama Supreme Court's ruling to that effect this week. That ruling has potential implications for fertility and abortion rights in the United States and has drawn criticism from women's rights groups.
South Carolina is a particularly crucial primary for Haley, so what's in store for us?
Why are these primaries so important to Haley?
South Carolina is Haley's home state. She was its governor for six years, until 2017. A loss to Trump, who leads her in opinion polls by 36 points, would be a serious political blow. Regardless, Haley has vowed to keep fighting even if she loses at state.
On Tuesday, he said he “has no need to kiss the ring” as he stands down and endorses the former president.
In South Carolina, Haley's governorship was viewed favorably among her core constituents. However, women have represented an average of 53 percent of voters in presidential elections since 2000, and this, ironically, could be to her disadvantage. In December, an Emerson College poll showed just 8 percent support for Haley among Republican women, compared to 19 percent support among Republican men.
How is a presidential candidate selected?
South Carolina operates under an open primary system, which allows any registered voter to participate in party primaries. However, voters can only participate in one party's presidential primaries. Those who cast ballots in the South Carolina Democratic primary on Feb. 3 are not eligible to participate in the Republican race.
The South Carolina Republican primary will be held on Saturday and polling stations will close across the state at 7:00 p.m. (00:00 GMT).
State races from January to June choose delegates, the people who will ultimately vote at party conventions in the summer to decide their party's presidential candidate. South Carolina has 50 Republican delegates and will award the votes of 29 of them to the candidate who wins this primary. It will also award three prizes to the winner in each of the state's seven congressional districts.
A minimum of 1,215 delegates are needed nationwide to secure the Republican presidential nomination — more than half of the 2,429 available.
After three state races so far, Haley has 17 delegates to Trump's 63.
South Carolina's delegates are a small part of the total number, but victories in early primaries and caucuses have historically created momentum leading up to Super Tuesday, the day most states vote. This year, Super Tuesday is March 5, and 16 states will elect about a third of all delegates. These include California (169 delegates) and Texas (161).
Is Trump likely to win South Carolina?
Trump is a formidable presidential candidate this year, having swept Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Opinion polls show he has a substantial lead over Haley.
With high-profile Republican endorsements from Gov. Henry McMaster and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, Trump remains a star for the party.
So far this year, Trump has the support of seven governors, 18 senators and more than 90 members of the House of Representatives. This includes House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Despite being dogged by criminal cases and lawsuits – including a civil fraud case in which Trump was ordered to pay more than $350 million in damages on February 16 – his popularity among his core base has not waned. In fact, many see him as a victim of a witch hunt and are even more determined to support him.
However, with several other cases against him still pending in various jurisdictions, Trump's path to the presidential nomination remains uncertain.
Trump has denied wrongdoing in all cases.
Will Haley be done if she loses this primary?
Losing South Carolina could mean the beginning of the end for Nikki Haley's presidential campaign. Political analysts said a loss in such an early primary reduces the chances of building momentum and winning over voters, not to mention donors.
But during a campaign speech Tuesday in Greenville, South Carolina, she defiantly said, “South Carolina will vote on Saturday, but on Sunday I will still run for president.”
There was a glimmer of hope for his campaign during the New Hampshire primary, held on January 23. Haley came in second in that race with 43.2 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 54.3 percent, a much less landslide victory for Trump than he has achieved. in other states.
However, in some hypothetical direct polls among registered voters of all political stripes, Haley does better against US President Joe Biden than Trump.
According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, in a hypothetical presidential election scenario in 2024, Biden, a Democrat, would maintain a narrow lead over Trump, winning 49 percent of registered voters, compared to Trump's 45 percent. However, in a Haley-Biden runoff, 47 percent of voters said they would support Haley compared to 42 percent for Biden.
However, if Trump wins Saturday's primary, Republican leaders could be forced to support him.
