After overthrowing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader and commander-in-chief of the new administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to lead a caretaker government until March. 1.
The measure aims to stabilize the country by providing basic services to civilians and preventing a power struggle between armed groups over resources and state ministries, experts told Al Jazeera.
“[A caretaker government is needed] “To ensure that the state continues to function and that people have electricity, water, sewage and the Internet,” said Thomas Pierret, a Syria expert at the Institute for Research and Study of the Arab and Muslim World.
However, the incumbent government (and HTS) could lose credibility if it refuses to share power after three months, experts warned.
Here's what we know about the interim government and its head:
Who is Mohammed al-Bashir?
The head of the provisional government is a technocrat who led the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib, a province in northwestern Syria.
After the Syrian uprising broke out in March 2011, Idlib became an opposition stronghold. In 2017, HTS consolidated control and created the SSG from civilian technocrats.
“Mohammed al-Bashir… has done a reasonably good job in Idlib,” said Robin Yassin-Kassab, a Syria expert and co-author of Burning Country: Syrias in Revolution and in War.
“I understand that it makes sense to scale [the Salvation Government] to all of Syria, for now,” he added.
Al-Bashir's experience in electrical engineering, project management and administrative planning suggests he has the professional knowledge to maintain basic services in the country, analysts said.
He first emerged as a minister in the HTS-backed Salvation government in 2021, according to the interim government's official website.
For two years, he served as head of development and humanitarian affairs, according to Assaad Al Achi, executive director of Baytna, a non-governmental organization that supported local civil society groups in Syria during the war.
“I was definitely interested in humanitarian work because that's where the money was,” Al Achi said, referring to the SSG's policy of taxing aid organizations.
On January 13, 2024, the Shura Council in Idlib elected al-Bashir as prime minister of the SSG.
Who are the other ministers?
Al-Bashir told Al Jazeera Arabic that for the time being, SSG ministers would take charge of national ministerial portfolios. The current ministerial line-up is:
- Interior Minister Mohammed Abdul Rahman
- Minister of Economy and Resources Basel Abdul Aziz
- Minister of Information Muhammad Yaqoub al-Omar
- Minister of Justice Shadi Muhammad al-Waisi
- Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation, Mohamed Taha al-Ahmad
- Minister of Health Mazen Dukhan
- Minister of Development Fadi al-Qassem
- Minister of Administration and Local Services, Mohamed Abdel Rahman Muslim
- Minister of Endowments Hussam Haj Hussein
- Minister of Education Nazir al-Qadri
- Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Abdel Moneim Abdel Hafez
Will there be a transition?
Despite al-Bashir's prominent role, Al Achi does not believe the interim prime minister has ambitions to consolidate power over Syria.
“What worries me is if [this caretaker government] spreads [its term] for more than three months, but if it is only for three months… then it is fine,” he said.
Experts are concerned that HTS will try to rule all of Syria with an iron fist.
According to a report by the Syrian Network for Human Rights, HTS subjected critics and opponents to forced disappearances and tortured people to death.
Al Jazeera asked the HTS media office to respond to these allegations, but they had not commented at the time of publication.
Setting yourself up for success
The interim government and HTS could ease concerns of a takeover by proposing a roadmap detailing when negotiations with other interested parties would begin before forming a broader coalition, Yassin-Kassab told Al Jazeera.
He added that a plan should aim to implement UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for an 18-month transition period, during which an inclusive coalition will draft a constitution and prepare for elections under UN supervision. United.
“[HTS] I must say that this is the beginning of a process that will involve all aspects of society and all political leaderships,” said Yassin-Kassab.
“That would reassure Syrians and the international community and give much more legitimacy to the new government.”
Who is going to pay for the transition?
Syria's economy is in tatters: the World Bank ranks its gross domestic product (GDP) 129th out of 196 states.
HTS managed to raise revenue during its rule in Idlib by taxing residents as well as goods and aid passing through the Turkish border. However, it is unclear whether the group has enough finances to boost the economy and supply basic provisions in the short and medium term.
Experts believe HTS can be incentivized to share power by linking sanctions relief with political reforms.
Syria is on the United States list of “countries that sponsor terrorism” and, in addition, HTS is considered a “foreign terrorist organization” by the European Union, Turkiye and the United States.
The EU and the US have also sanctioned large parts of the Syrian economy, including the energy sector and trade in goods related to technology or electricity supply, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW).
It is imperative that HTS share power with other stakeholders and civil society to convince Syrians and the international community that the group has changed, Yassin-Kassab maintains.
“[I]It remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of a power grab by HTS and civilian bodies aligned with HTS,” he told Al Jazeera.
“I certainly hope not.”
