Islamabad, Pakistan – A radiant Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, welcome with Saudi F-15 combat aircraft, a red carpet and a complete real protocol, joined the Saudi prince Mohammed Bin Salman on Wednesday to sign a “strategic mutual defense agreement” (SMDA).
The observers say that it is an emblematic moment in the alliance of decades between the two nations whose ties date back to almost eight decades.
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The signature ceremony in the Royal Court of the Al-Yamamah Palace in Riad was witnessed by senior Saudi Arabia officials, the custodian of two of the most sacred sites of Islam, along with representatives of Pakistan, the only nuclear power in the Muslim world.
The agreement arrives at a critical moment. Regional policy has been overturned by two years of Israeli aggression, including its war against Gaza and attacks in neighboring states, limited by the Israeli attack last week against Doha, the capital of Qatar, which limits with Saudi Arabia.
But it also occurs amid high tensions between India and Pakistan, after a brief but intense conflict in May in which they were seen in the military bases for four days, carrying southern Asia to the edge of a complete war between neighbors with nuclear weapons.
The Pakistan Foreign Ministry said that the agreement with Saudi Arabia reflects the “shared commitment” of both nations to strengthen security and promote regional peace, while committing to “strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression.”
“The agreement establishes that any aggression against any country will be considered an aggression against both,” said the ministry.
Asfandyar Mir, main member of the Stimson Center based in Washington DC, described the pact as a “basin” for both countries.
“Pakistan previously maintained mutual defense treaties with the United States during the Cold War, but they collapsed in the 70s. Even with China, despite the extensive defense cooperation, Pakistan lacks a formal mutual defense pact,” Mir a Al Jazeera told.
Muhammad Faisal, a security researcher in southern Asia at the Technological University of Sydney, said the agreement could serve as a template for Pakistan to participate in a similar bilateral defense cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, two key Gulf partners.
“Within the immediate period, this agreement will consolidate and formalize multiple defense cooperation already underway, and new paths will be explored to expand it through joint training, defense production and potential expansion of the contingent Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia,” Faisal said.
Historic ties and military cooperation
Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to recognize Pakistan after its independence in August 1947. In 1951, the two nations signed a “friendship treaty”, laying the foundations for decades of strategic, political, military and economic cooperation.
Over the years, the Pakistani armed forces have been deployed in the kingdom several times and trained the Saudi staff both in the Gulf and in Pakistan.
According to the official records, Pakistan has trained more than 8,000 Saudites since 1967. An agreement signed in 1982 further consolidated this cooperation by guaranteeing the “delegation of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Pakistan and military training” in Saudi Arabia.
But the last pact arrives as the geopolitical chess board of the Middle East is in flow. The consequences of the Israel War against Gaza and its attacks on regional neighbors have incorporated into the Gulf States, many of which still depend largely on the security guarantees of the United States, even when Washington remains the closest ally of Israel.
Qatar, attacked by Israel on September 9 to organize Hamas leaders, serves as the front headquarters for the United States Central Command (Centcom).
In mid -2025, about 40,000–50,000 American troops are parked in the Middle East, deployed in large bases and smaller progress sites, at least 19 of them, including Prince Sultan's air base outside Riad.
While Saudi officials say that the agreement with Pakistan has been in process for at least a year, Sahar Khan, independent security analyst in Washington, DC, said his language will raise the eyebrows in the United States.
During his mandate from 2021 to 2025, the administration of President Joe Biden imposed sanctions seven times aimed at Pakistani individuals and companies on the alleged development of ballistic missiles. Biden administration officials also expressed their concern publicly about the range of missiles that Pakistan was building, and if they could transport nuclear weapons to the United States.
“Pakistan already has a credibility problem in Washington, and this agreement will not reduce it,” Khan told Al Jazeera.
Khan said that Pakistan is interested in clarifying that his nuclear and missile program is focused on India, and although his bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia remain strong, “he will not fight against Saudi wars, but will only provide relevant support.”
A region on the edge
Earlier this year, in June, Israel fought a 12 -day war with Iran, aimed at nuclear facilities, as well as the main civil and military leaders. The American bombing planes supported the assault, dropping mass bombs of bunker-buuster in Fordow, one of Iran's key nuclear sites.
Three months later, Israel hit a building in a leafy neighborhood of Doha that houses embassies, supermarkets and schools, killing at least five Hamas members and a Qatari security official.
The Doha attack triggered an emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic nations. The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the EAU, said they would activate a joint defense mechanism.
Faisal said that the Pakistan-Saudi pact should be seen through the lens of these developments.
“These events have exacerbated the security anxieties of the Gulf States while endangering the confidence in the United States security umbrella as the last shield. As the Gulf states seek to strengthen their safety, regional countries such as Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye emerge as natural partners,” he said.
Khan, however, said that while the moment of the pact suggests a link with Israel's recent attack against Qatar, “these types of agreements take months, if not years, in negotiating.”
However, the MIR of the center of Stimson said that the agreement would also prove how Pakistan and Saudi Arabia handle their exposure to the other tensions with countries with which they have otherwise managed with caution, or even friends.
“Pakistan now runs the risk of entangling in the regional rivalries of Saudi Arabia, particularly with his neighbor Iran,” he said. “Saudi Arabia has committed to Pakistan's disputes, especially with India, and potentially with the Afghanistan led by the Taliban.”
The Indian question
The defense agreement will also be observed closely in India, the archirrival with nuclear weapons of Pakistan.
The relations between India and Pakistan, already in a historical minimum, collapsed even more in April after the attack of Pahalgam, in which armed men killed 26 civilians in Kashmir administered by the Indians, for which India blamed Pakistan, which the last one rejected.
Days later, in May, the two countries fought against a four -day skirmish, attacking the other's military bases with missiles and drones in their most serious escalation in almost three decades before a high fire on May 10 that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, says he negotiated.
On Thursday, during a weekly news session, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India, Randhir Jaiswal, said the Indian government was aware of the signing of the pact.
“We will study the implications of this development for our national security, as well as for regional and global stability. The Government remains committed to protecting the national interests of India and guaranteeing integral national security in all domains,” Jaiswal said.
But this agreement, says Faisal, based in Sydney, could rebalance the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, which in recent years has been defined by Saudi financial rescues for a Pakistani economy in difficulties, even when Riad cultivated closer ties with India.
“Pakistan's relative position has improved,” he said, “and the new space has opened to expand the cooperation of Pak-Saudi both in bilateral defense and in regional security matters.”
With the economy of hesitant Pakistan and increasingly dependent on Saudi aid during the last decade, India had constantly deepening his own relationship with Riyadh. The Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, made his third visit to Saudi Arabia in an April decade.
Mir said that the new covenant shows that Saudi Arabia still sees value in his relationship with Pakistan, and that Islamabad is not isolated in its extended neighborhood, despite the Indian attempts to make countries distance themselves from Pakistan.
“Precisely at the time Pakistan faces the threat of Indian military action,” he said, “Pakistan has assured a strong collective defense agreement of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it introduces a lot of complexity for the future dynamics of India-Pakistan.”
The Pakistan nuclear shield about Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia has expressed a lot of interest in acquiring nuclear technology for civil use, to diversify fossil fuels.
In January, the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman to the Saud, reiterated Riad's preparation to enrich and sell uranium, a key component of nuclear programs.
But Saudi Arabia has also repeatedly made clear that it does not seek to pursue nuclear weapons.
In his 2024 book, the American journalist Bob Woodward told a conversation in which, according to the reports, the Saudi heir prince Mohammed told the American senator Lindsey Graham that Riyader planned to enrich Uranium only for energy purposes.
When Graham expressed concern about the possibility of a Saudi bomb, Woodward wrote, Salman replied:
“I don't need uranium to make a bomb. I will just buy one of Pakistan.”
Even so, Khan, the analyst, said that some things were not clear about the scope of the agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
“It is important to keep in mind that, although Pakistan has achieved defense pacts before, none of them has led to nuclear guarantees or a formation of a 'nuclear umbrella'. There is nothing in this agreement that indicates a formation of a nuclear umbrella or any extended deterrence,” he said.
Mir warned that even robust alliances carry risks.
“The pact will trigger a new alliance policy around what it does or does not cover, deterrence, commitment of resources, operational details, among others,” he said. However, he added, that does not decrease the political importance of this pact being beaten.
“It is a great development for both countries.”
Faisal also agreed, noting that while the agreement refers to discussing an aggression against a country against both, that is perhaps more a political declaration, instead of an alliance or a joint defense commitment, for now.
“However, political and defense coordination between the two parties will be deepened, while strengthening the respective military capacities of both countries,” he said.
