When Sauli Niinisto became president of Finland 12 years ago, he hoped to develop a European defense policy, look for “opportunities” in China and preserve “as predictable an operating environment as possible with Russia,” which he said “remains in the center of attention”. center of our foreign policy.”
That has all changed, as the Nordic nation prepares for a presidential vote that begins Sunday to determine Niinisto's successor.
Russia has become very unpredictable and a European deterrent has not yet emerged.
The United States, not the European Union, replaced Russia at the center of Finnish foreign and defense policy last year, when the Finns abandoned seven decades of non-alignment to join NATO.
Relations with China are plagued with suspicion after a Chinese cargo ship's anchor damaged the Baltic Connector gas pipeline and data cables in the Gulf of Finland last October. She may have been the same ship that damaged undersea data cables to Taiwan early last year. There have been suspicions of Russian-Chinese collusion.
Finland has traditionally based its security on a careful relationship with Russia.
Finnish presidents have cultivated Russian leaders as few Westerners have, and Niinisto had extensive personal experience dealing with Putin.
Finland's defense budget remained below 1.5 percent of GDP throughout the Cold War and until 2020, according to figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Finland even lent its name to this pragmatic self-containment: Finnization.
'Look in the mirror'
The Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014 put the country on alert.
Niinisto told parliament this required a defense investment that is “perhaps greater than what we have discussed so far” to protect its 1,000 kilometer (621 mile) long land border with Russia, now NATO's longest.
The turning point was Russian President Vladimir Putin's ultimatum to NATO in December 2021: expel former Warsaw Pact members from the alliance and cauterize NATO's expansion in Eastern Europe.
That, Niinisto told Bloomberg, “was a real change in Finnish thinking.”
When Russia invaded Ukraine the following February, Finnish public opinion changed overnight.
When asked in a Yle poll in the first week of the invasion whether they favored NATO membership, 53 percent of Finns said yes. If the president supported it, the majority would rise to 63 percent.
Following a border crisis in which Russia attempted to send asylum seekers en masse to Finland last fall, approval for NATO membership rose to more than 80 percent.
Niinisto and Putin last spoke in May 2022.
“Niinisto only called Putin to inform him that Finland was joining NATO, and that was that famous call where he said, 'Look in the mirror… this is your doing,'” said Minna Alander, a researcher at the Institute. Finnish Foreign Minister, told Al Jazeera.
“After that they asked him: 'What do you think about [German chancellor Olaf] Scholz and [French President Emmanuel] Macron calling [Putin] And why don't you call Putin? Do you think you should call? – he said, 'Well, I don't have anything to say.'”
Defense strategies promoted for a new era
Finland's defensive posture has changed dramatically since then.
This year defense spending will reach 2.3 percent of GDP, exceeding for the first time the two percent minimum recommended by NATO.
This will help fund a “smart fence” along the border with Finland equipped with sensors and drones, a new set of corvettes for the navy and new howitzers for the army.
Finland purchased 64 F-35 Lightning II fighter-bombers from the American Lockheed Martin for $9.4 billion in February 2022. These are fifth-generation stealth aircraft. In them, the Finns could, in theory, fly to Moscow undetected.
Last November, Finland sparked controversy when it purchased the medium-range (40-300 km or 20-250 miles) David's Sling air defense system from Israel's Rafael.
The system is designed to intercept anti-ballistic missiles used to deliver nuclear bombs. Some strategists believe that undermines mutual nuclear deterrence. It was a similar move by US President George W. Bush to place ballistic missile interceptors in frontline NATO states that drew Russia's ire in 2009.
Beyond the capabilities Finland is developing on its own, it has signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States that allows American forces to operate from its soil.
In other words, the Russian invasion of Ukraine put the full power of the Pentagon at its doors.
Niinisto was already the only Finnish president elected with an absolute majority (62.7 percent) in a first round of voting, in 2018. His conversion of Finnish sentiment into concrete policies increased his stature, because the Finnish president is the commander in chief of the armed forces. and he constitutionally leads defense and foreign policy. As of 2021, his popularity ratings have exceeded 90 percent.
A citizen movement even attempted to alter the rules to allow Niinisto to run for a third term, a campaign he had no interest in.
Unsurprisingly, the two favorites, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, have been trying to emulate him.
“There is a sense that voters are looking for a mini-Niinisto,” Alander said.
Nuclear weapons, future challenges and NATO policy
Niinisto will now bequeath a presidency that has grown not only in stature but also in complexity.
“Without a doubt, the Finnish presidency is becoming a stronger institution because of the president's role in foreign policy,” SM Amadae, director of the global politics and communication program at the University of Helsinki, told Al Jazeera.
About two-thirds of Finns are against reducing the president's powers, which are largely discretionary and shaped by the strength of each president's personality and popularity.
“The next president will play an important role and set precedents in the way Finland's relationship with NATO will be conducted,” he said.
Finland's special relationship with and understanding of Russia has been its selling point in the EU and NATO until now. Its strategic vantage point to spy on Russia, its cutting-edge 5G telecommunications industry and its artificial intelligence industry may now replace them as strategic advantages.
For these reasons, the all-important relationship with the United States is likely to flourish.
“We can expect greater collaboration between the United States and Finland regarding military collaboration and trade partnerships,” Amadae said.
Like the other Baltic and Nordic states, Finland plays an increasingly important role in the EU.
They have been the EU's staunchest supporters for Ukraine, leading traditional heavyweights France, Germany and Italy, and forming a powerful foreign policy bloc within the EU.
The next president also has to resolve some divisive issues. One is whether he will hand Ukraine its aging F-18 Hornets once its F-35s become operational, which will further increase Russian anger.
Another is whether nuclear weapons should be allowed on Finnish soil. In an opinion poll conducted by Amadae and his team at the University of Helsinki, only one in five Finns surveyed agreed.
Another is whether the military neutrality of Aland, an autonomous group of islands belonging to Finland, should be abolished. Doing so would provide contiguous NATO territorial waters that would extend to Sweden, which is inching toward NATO membership.
About half of Finns say Aland should be militarized now. However, Stubb and Haavisto have not committed.
There are other divisive military issues.
Should Finland, with 60,000 soldiers and 300,000 trained reservists, also allow the recruitment of women? Stubb says yes, Haavisto no.
Should it withdraw from the Landmine Ban Convention, allowing it to mine its vulnerable border with Russia? Stubb and Haavisto say no.
“These issues have not been prominently addressed in presidential election campaigns or debates,” Amadae said, possibly due to this border country's aversion to discord.
The Finns, who fought against Russia in 1939, seem to agree on one thing: we must support Ukraine. “We too have fought for our freedom and independence against a much larger enemy and we have paid a high price for it,” Niinisto told the UN General Assembly in September.
“We do not want the world to regress to a state in which the great consider that they have the privilege of subjugating the small.”
