Washington DC – It's been two weeks since Donald Trump became the first former US president to be convicted on criminal charges. But polls show that the extraordinary verdict has largely been met with resounding boredom.
On May 30, Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, in what prosecutors described as an effort to conceal a money payment to a porn star to maintain his silence.
But experts say the public response to the verdict has been a shock wave rather than a tidal wave, and that's a reflection of the unique political moment the United States finds itself in.
Trump is seeking re-election in November and is in a close race against incumbent President Joe Biden. But his campaign has been bolstered by strong support among Republicans, who have largely united under his leadership.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, attributed the muted reaction after May's historic verdict to the Republican Party (and the media) normalizing what should be notable.
“Never, in more than 230 years of American history, have we had a former president, or even a major party presidential candidate, charged with a crime, much less convicted of multiple felonies,” Lichtman told Al Jazeera.
“This is an unprecedented cataclysmic event and, at least so far, it doesn't seem to have much impact on people's opinion of Donald Trump.”
'Silent money' versus 'scheme to defraud'
According to Lichtman, the moderate response has been, in many ways, the culmination of Trump's years-long effort to create a perception of both political impunity and persecution.
Trump boasted in 2016 that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York City and still “not lose any voters.” He ultimately won the presidential race that year.
However, for years he has also promoted – without evidence – the claim that he is the target of a coordinated political “witch hunt” designed to remove him from power.
Lichtman added that media coverage of the trial also contributed to the beige public's reaction.
The trial, which took place in New York City, was based on the prosecution's argument that Trump covered up the payment of the money to protect his chances in the 2016 presidential election.
Trump has denied the charges. But prosecutors maintained that he used illegal means to hide information from the American electorate.
The fact that the media referred to the trial as the “hush money” case contributed to the lack of outrage, Lichtman said. He believes the verdict would have resonated more if the media had framed the case as a matter of “fraud perpetrated against the American people.”
“Trump has played the media like a fiddle,” Lichtman explained. “So let's not forget that virtually the entire Republican Party has believed his lies that he was convicted by a rigged system in a sham trial.”
A litmus test for voters
That was a message that Trump and his campaign helped calcify as the New York verdict approached.
In a press conference after being found guilty, the former president sought to directly link his conviction to the Biden administration, without providing evidence for the claim.
“This is all done by Biden and his people,” Trump said at the press conference. “We are dealing with a corrupt government. We have a corrupt country.”
Shortly afterward, he again raised the specter of political violence if he were imprisoned.
“I'm not sure the public supports it,” Trump told Fox News. “You know, at a certain point, there's a breaking point.”
Earlier this week, his campaign even sent out an email titled “Bring out the guillotine,” in reference to the French Revolution.
For his part, Biden – through campaign and White House communications – has shown the conviction that there is a healthy and impartial justice system.
The trial in New York is far from the end of Trump's legal problems. He faces separate state and federal charges related to efforts to subvert his 2020 election loss to Biden, as well as a fourth indictment in Florida for allegedly hoarding classified documents.
But none of the other cases are expected to conclude before the Nov. 5 presidential race.
That means the New York trial offers the first — and perhaps only — litmus test for how America's nearly 160 million registered voters will view a criminal conviction.
The consequences silenced in the polls
Since the verdict, there has been evidence that Trump's strategy has helped reinvigorate his supporters. His campaign claimed to have raised $141 million in May, including $2 million in small donations.
More than a third of those donations were made online in the 24 hours after the verdict, according to the Trump campaign, although official fundraising documents for the period have not yet been released.
Then there have been a series of polls that have shown a largely ambivalent response to the prospect of electing a convicted felon as president.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted immediately after the verdict found that only 10 percent of registered Republicans reported they were less likely to vote for Trump after the conviction.
Meanwhile, 56 percent of Republicans said the case would have no effect on their vote. Another 35 percent indicated that would make them more likely to vote for Trump.
The impact of the verdict was most pronounced among independent voters, a coveted demographic in American politics.
About 25 percent of independent voters surveyed said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18 percent who said they were more likely to vote for him.
However, the majority of the group (56 percent) said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.
Still, two weeks after the verdict, most major polls and forecasters show Biden and Trump neck and neck in the presidential race, although several leading organizations, including FiveThirtyEight and Morning Consult, put Biden in the lead by a slight margin. advantage.
This week, CBS News and YouGov released another poll showing the candidates virtually tied in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, as before, a majority of voters surveyed said the conviction in New York was not a factor in how they would cast their ballot in November.
Michael Fauntroy, founding director of the Center on Race, Politics and Policy at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera that the cascade of post-verdict polls proves one thing: “Trump has been hurt, but not mortally.”
Will public sentiment be reflected in the vote?
But there are still more than four months until the November 5 elections. That could help or hurt Trump.
Experts note that the public's attention span is short, and other high-profile news stories have already diverted attention from the New York verdict.
They include the conviction of Biden's son, Hunter Biden, on charges of lying on a federal firearms background check form. The verdict marks the first time the son of a sitting president has been found guilty of criminal charges.
The Trump campaign sought to highlight the conviction as evidence of what it calls the “Biden crime family.” But the verdict could also prove a double-edged sword, with some observers noting that the case may neutralize Trump's claim that the judiciary is corrupted by political bias.
After all, the Hunter Biden case was prosecuted by the Department of Justice, which reports to the Biden White House. And the president has ruled out pardoning his son.
Then there's Trump's upcoming sentencing hearing on July 11. The severity of the penalty is expected to affect voter opinion.
Fauntroy warned that the eventual sentence could make Trump's conviction more complicated and more difficult for his campaign to handle.
“The ruling could well accelerate the concern that Republicans have,” he said. “What happens if they imprison him? What if they give him house arrest? What happens if they give you 30 days of house arrest? What happens if he receives 1,000 hours of community service?
Trump's sentencing, Fauntroy explained, “could potentially be very problematic for him.”
Even slight fluctuations in the polls could also spell trouble for Trump. Any drop in support could make the difference in an election that is expected to swing on a knife edge.
“It could have a small, immediate impact, but a big ultimate impact,” Fauntroy said, “if the number of Republicans who are repulsed by this remains the same as it is now.”
And perhaps there is a bigger reason for the unease hanging over the Trump camp, he added.
Several polls, including those conducted by Morning Consult and ABC News/Ipsos, have found that a majority of Americans think the guilty verdict was correct. Fauntroy explained that this shows a persistent vulnerability that could then be activated by Trump's opponents.
“Right now, it's a slightly negative thing for Trump,” Fauntroy said, “but potentially a really bad thing in the future.”
