Former US President Donald Trump has sparked strong reactions in Europe after saying Washington might not protect NATO allies from a possible attack by Russia if it wins the November election, unless some alliance members increase their military spending.
Speaking at a campaign rally Saturday in South Carolina, the GOP presidential front-runner said he told an unnamed leader of a “big country” that is part of NATO that he would “encourage them to [Russia] do whatever they want” with nations that do not spend enough on defense.
NATO, which was formed during the Cold War, is made up of 31 nations, all of them in Europe except the United States and Canada. Under Article 5 of the treaty that created the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an attack on one member triggers a response from all.
Trump has made similar comments about other NATO members' military spending before, including when he was president, saying the United States unfairly bears the alliance's defense burden.
But while the real estate developer-turned-politician's rhetoric about the alliance remains unchanged, NATO members' spending is different than it was when Trump was in office.
One key reason: Russia's war against Ukraine and the growing threat perception in Europe.
How much do NATO members spend on defense?
NATO's defense spending declined sharply after the Cold War – from 4.1 percent of combined gross domestic product (GDP) in 1990 to 2.6 percent in 2000 – even as the group expanded. To boost funding, members agreed at a summit in Wales in 2014 to contribute at least 2 percent of their GDP to the alliance by 2024.
In 2017, when Trump was sworn in as US president, only four countries met that threshold: the United States, Greece, the United Kingdom and Poland. Trump's argument since then has been that the United States needs to pressure its allies to expand their military budgets.
Seven years later, NATO military spending has changed significantly, although most members still do not devote 2 percent of their GDP to defense.
By 2022, the number of NATO nations meeting that bar had reached eight: the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Croatia.
Then, as the war in Ukraine continued and fears grew about Russia's expansionist ambitions, more European members increased their military budgets. The number rose to 11 in 2023: Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and new NATO member Finland spent more than 2 percent, while Croatia fell below the threshold.
Luxembourg (0.7 percent) is the country that spends the least in relation to its GDP. Belgium (1.1 percent), Turkey (1.3 percent), Spain (1.3 percent), Slovenia (1.4 percent) and Canada (1.4 percent) are other member countries that join They are at the bottom of the expense group.
Yet even as more NATO members have increased their spending, the alliance's dependence on the size and strength of the U.S. military has only grown.
The United States, whose military forms the core of the alliance, has consistently spent more than all other members combined. In 1990, the United States accounted for 61 percent of alliance defense spending. By 2020, the United States' share had increased to 70 percent.
How has the war in Ukraine affected NATO spending?
Several NATO members announced intentions to increase their defense budgets and meet the 2 percent target following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France promised to reach the threshold in 2025, Italy in 2028, Spain in 2029 and Belgium in 2035.
In December, the alliance announced a military budget of 2.03 billion euros ($2.4 billion) for 2024, a 12 percent increase from 2023.
According to the White House, the United States has provided more wartime financial aid to Ukraine than any other country, amounting to $44 billion as of 2022.
Experts said NATO is still falling short of its target for each member's military spending and that the budgets of Western European countries furthest from Russia, such as Germany, have been some of the slowest to rise.
From 2021 to 2023, Berlin increased its spending as a percentage of GDP by 0.1 percent. Ukraine's neighbor Poland, on the other hand, has nearly doubled its spending during that time.
How could a second Trump presidency affect US-NATO relations?
Trump's latest comments have raised concerns within the alliance about the potential for disruption within NATO if he returns to power.
“Any indication that allies will not defend themselves undermines all of our security, including that of the United States, and exposes American and European soldiers to greater risk,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. The alliance has a combined 3.3 million military personnel.
Trump has had a difficult history with NATO for years, especially when he was president.
In 2019, Trump told reporters that he withheld nearly $400 million in funding approved by Congress for Ukraine because other NATO members had not done their part.
“I would hold back again and will continue to hold back until such time as Europe and other nations contribute to Ukraine because they are not,” Trump said at the time. “Why only the United States provides the money? Germany, France and other countries should contribute money.”
Although not a member of NATO, kyiv has been pushing to join the alliance for years and NATO, in turn, has declared protecting the country a key priority. NATO had 12 members when it was formed in 1949, and analysts have noted that the alliance's expansion to countries in the former Soviet Union has threatened Russia's influence and angered Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Moscow has said that neighboring Ukraine joining NATO would be a step too far. After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO increased aid to Ukraine. The alliance has also increased funding for kyiv since Russia launched an all-out war in 2022.
Fellow Republicans have denounced Trump's comments on Saturday. Former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump's only rival for the Republican presidential nomination, told reporters that the last thing the United States wants to do is “side with Russia.”
“Don't take the side of someone who has invaded a country and half a million people have been killed or injured,” he said, referring to Putin.
