Former President Trump's resilience in the 2024 presidential campaign is giving the California Republican Party, whose members gathered in the Bay Area this weekend to hone their strategy for the November election, dreams of power and revenge in a state where Democrats have long reigned.
Despite the Golden State's leftist lean, a number of liberal policies — including those on abortion, vehicle emissions standards and protections for immigrants who entered the country illegally — could be undermined if Trump returns to the White House and Republicans take control of Congress.
“A Trump administration would definitely change things a little bit here in California to make [life] a little easier for Californians,” said state GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson, citing the high cost of gasoline, the fentanyl crisis and border issues.
Dan Schnur, a politics professor at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine, said it was difficult to imagine a policy area that would not be affected if the former president defeats the current president in November.
“For California Republicans, it's a dream. For California Democrats, it's a nightmare,” Schnur said. “Republicans have been dramatically outnumbered in this state for a generation, but now they would have a president who would be able to act on their most important issues. And on the other hand, Democrats have absolute control in state politics and government, but a Republican president (especially Trump) would create an immense obstacle to almost all of their goals.”
If Trump wins, California will become “a last bastion of security” for Democrats nationally, Schnur said.
California Democratic Party leaders met this weekend in San Diego to plan their agenda and strengthen their ranks. With the party divided by discord over President Biden's response to the war in the Gaza Strip, speakers called for unity and projected nightmarish visions of how a second Trump term could threaten his progressive agenda.
“We cannot afford to divide, because the result of that division is Donald Trump,” said David Campos, vice chairman of the state party and former San Francisco supervisor.
Campos raised the specter of the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where protesters in the streets were met with police violence and divisions erupted within the venue. He warned that the chaos resulted in the election of Republican Richard Nixon to the Oval Office.
The Democratic Party convention returns to Chicago this summer.
California Democratic Party leaders described the prospect of a second Trump term in dystopian terms, with threats to abortion, immigrant and voting rights and the state's cherished environmental protections. They painted a picture of a fragile democracy that is at risk.
“This nation is in danger,” warned California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, the top election official, saying that everything the party has fought for for decades is “slowly being ripped away.”
Leaders of both parties have vowed to fight for several competitive seats in the California House of Representatives, arguing that the state will be essential in determining which party controls Congress.
Although California is an overwhelmingly blue state, with Democratic voters outnumbering Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, it is home to more than 5.3 million members of the Republican Party.
Among California Republicans, enthusiasm for the former president was palpable at their convention, with attendees posing next to a life-size cardboard cutout; sporting bright red lapel pins bearing his name; and shouting: “Trump! Triumph! Win!” at a “Make California Great Again!” work session.
“It's an election we must win, right?” said Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee and the former president's daughter-in-law, at a banquet Saturday night. If President Biden wins, she said, “we are not going to have the same country on the other side.”
He urged attendees, who spent up to $750 on tickets to his events, to advise voters who may be turned off by Trump's personality.
“Say, if you're hiring someone for a job and you have a person who you know will be exceptional at that job, but maybe you don't like them. “I don’t know, maybe you didn’t want to be with them or go out with them after work,” she said. “And then there was another person who maybe (I don't even want to say 'it's great to be around') and she fell asleep a lot. He was very, very calm, very subdued, but he was going to be terrible at that job. Who would you choose for that job? You will choose the person who would do the job. “Go out and vote for that guy, Donald J. Trump.”
Delegate Lanhee Chen, a Stanford University professor and former adviser to Republican presidential candidates such as Mitt Romney, argued that a Trump re-election would be a “mixed bag” for California. The state's efforts to protect abortion access, as well as the former president's populist streak, could provide insulation, although they would not be as protected on other issues that a Republican president could act on through regulatory or executive actions.
“You could see a different approach in Washington on issues like [electric vehicles]on energy issues and also on environmental issues,” said Chen, who unsuccessfully ran for state controller in 2022. “Interestingly, there may not be as many changes as you might think.”
Meanwhile, in San Diego, Democrats argued that another Trump term would cause irreparable harm to Californians and the rights and freedoms they hold dear.
“Given what Trump and his minions are openly saying right now, you can't try to hide the ball. They’ve been pretty clear about what his plans are,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks, describing California’s leadership as the opposite of Trump’s agenda.
The state was a bulwark against Trump's policies during his presidency. And Democratic leaders used their opposition to Trump to burnish his liberal bona fides in the state, as well as to raise his national profile; the most notable example is Governor Gavin Newsom. Widely considered a future presidential candidate, Newsom has objected as he spends his campaign coffers across the country, trolling Republicans and endorsing Democratic candidates.
California's dispute with the Trump White House also played out in court. Xavier Becerra, state attorney general at the time, presented more than 100 lawsuits against Trump's policies.
The litigation by Becerra, who now serves as Biden's Secretary of Health and Human Services, included challenges to the Trump administration's policies on the environment, immigration, health care, education, gun control, consumer protection, the census, the US Postal Service, and civil rights issues.
California Democrats would inevitably return to their court battles if Trump wins a second term.
The current state attorney general, Rob Bonta, he told the Times this month that his office has been reviewing Trump's potential agenda for a second term to prepare for a similar avalanche of lawsuits should he defeat Biden.
With Newsom term-limited, Bonta and Becerra are among prominent Democratic politicians considering a run for governor in 2026. If Trump wins the presidency, opposition to his agenda will shape the gubernatorial race, as the candidates They compete to position themselves as the most suitable to lead a new chapter of the opposition in California.
The state's size, history and Democratic dominance mean it will once again be the symbolic headquarters of the liberal “resistance,” said Fernando Guerra, a political science professor and director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. .
“But then, substantially, they have to be resistance because of the policies that we've been pursuing for a long time and that we want to continue,” he added, citing the state's environmental protections that would conflict with a Trump presidency.
Guerra also raised questions about how a Trump presidency could affect federal funding to combat homelessness in Democratic-led cities like Los Angeles, where Mayor Karen Bass has touted her federal relationships as a key part of the homeless strategy. homeless.
