Donald Trump's historic criminal conviction has dominated media coverage in recent days, but the former president's legal defeat has so far had only a marginal impact on national polls of his race against President Biden.
Public opinion experts said it will take another week or two to assess the true effect of Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying documents to cover up money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels.
The first national polls following Trump's conviction on Thursday continue to show the 2020 election rematch is nearly tied. Additionally, there have been no post-verdict polls in the seven hotly contested states that are likely to decide the election.
Three polls found a majority of Americans agreed with the verdict, while another showed a narrow majority saying it was “politically motivated.”
In a CBS News poll, 57% of respondents said the New York City jury reached the correct verdict in finding Trump guilty, and 43% said it was the wrong verdict. A similar percentage said Trump had a fair trial, and Democratic and Republican supporters were sharply divided on that issue. Independents said Trump got a fair trial by a margin of 56% to 44%.
About 52% of registered voters surveyed in an Ipsos/Reuters poll said they believed the verdicts were “primarily about enforcing laws fairly and upholding the rule of law,” while 46% said the verdicts were “primarily a politically motivated attempt to prevent Trump from
the White House.” The question was asked on the day of the verdict and a day later.
A Morning Consult poll found that 54% of voters approved of the verdict, and a similar proportion believed Trump committed a crime.
That contrasts with an overnight HarrisX poll after the verdict, in which 51% called the verdict “politically motivated,” compared to 49% who said it was “fair and impartial.”
The Ipsos/Reuters poll put Biden ahead slightly among registered voters, 41% to 39%, while the Morning Consult poll put the president ahead 45% to 44%. The HarrisX poll had Trump up 51% to 49%. All of these results are within the polls' margin of error.
Experts said it remains difficult, five months before the final day of voting on Nov. 5, to determine who low-information “undecided” voters will support.
“Asking people to predict their behavior in November is asking a lot under any circumstances, but especially now, because there is still so much left to happen, including the debates and conventions,” said Charles Franklin, director of Marquette Law. School Poll, which will roll out its next national survey later this month.
