United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed growing concern over the escalating war of words and deadly border clashes between the Israeli military and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
UN peacekeepers are working to calm the situation and avoid “miscalculations” after both sides stepped up their rhetoric and raised the possibility of a full-scale conflict, it said on Friday.
“A precipitous move – a miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border and, frankly, beyond imagination,” Guterres told reporters. “Let us be clear: the people of the region and the people of the world cannot allow Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
A UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, as well as unarmed technical observers known as UNTSO, have long been stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities along the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line.
“UN peacekeepers are on the ground working to reduce tensions and help prevent miscalculations,” Guterres said. “The world must say loud and clear: immediate de-escalation is not only possible but essential. “There is no military solution.”
Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones at Israel since launching the war on Gaza last October and the Israelis responded with deadly airstrikes and heavy artillery fire. Hundreds of people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced along the border.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant previously pledged to “turn Beirut into Gaza.” This week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that “there will be no restrictions or rules” if Israel launches a major attack on Lebanon.
“Israelis will pay a huge price”
Analysts have said it is still unclear whether both sides are increasing their threats as a deterrent or if they are actually on the brink of all-out war. In terms of Israel's war against Gaza, one expert said it is not accurate to compare Palestinian armed groups with Lebanese Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is more trained, more organized and has even more lethal weapons compared to the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas. And for this reason, I think the Israelis will pay a huge price for something they can avoid,” Hassan Barari, a professor of international affairs at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.
Orna Mizrahi, a former official at Israel's National Security Council, said neither option is good for the country.
“But the big question is: how much can Israel suffer under this attack? I think the majority of the government doesn't really want to get into a war, but we may be getting there,” she said.
In Lebanon, Nasrallah's comments left many preparing for a broader war. But some diplomats and analysts said his threats are an attempt to match Israel's escalating rhetoric.
Israel cannot allow the terrorist organization Hezbollah to continue attacking its territory and its citizens, and we will make the necessary decisions soon. The free world must unconditionally support Israel in its war against the axis of evil led by Iran and extremist Islam. Our…
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“For me, this is part of a deterrent strategy,” said Hubert Faustmann, professor of history and international relations at the University of Nicosia.
“There is a great danger that Israel will escalate the confrontation with Hezbollah and a full-scale, all-out war, which I don't think Hezbollah wants,” Faustmann added, saying Hezbollah is demonstrating what it “could do” if that were the case. let it happen.
Hezbollah has indicated it is not seeking a broader conflict, even as it has consistently resorted to more powerful weaponry.
While Israel has the most powerful military in the Middle East, Hezbollah has thousands of fighters, many with experience in the Syrian civil war, and an arsenal of tens of thousands of missiles capable of hitting cities across Israel.
It also has a large fleet of drones, one of which appears to have made an extended flight over the port city of Haifa this week, underscoring the potential threat to key economic infrastructure, including energy systems.
“A difficult task for Israeli air defenses”
There are fears that a broader escalation could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system, which has so far intercepted most of the hundreds of missiles fired by Hezbollah.
“My feeling is that Hezbollah feels that it has some influence over the Israelis, because an escalation of the war – no matter how much damage it could cause in Lebanon and Syria – would create terror in Israel,” said Seth G Jones, an analyst at the Israel Studies Center. Strategic and International in Washington, DC.
“It would be a difficult task for Israeli air defenses to confront the extensive rocket arsenal coming from the north. “It would be a big problem.”
Israel has had painful experiences in Lebanon in the past. After his forces invaded in 1982, they were stuck maintaining a buffer zone for nearly two decades after a war that saw the birth of Hezbollah. In 2006 there was a second 34-day war that bloodied both sides.
But political pressure on Netanyahu has increased with no indication of when life will return to normal, more than eight months after the conflict began.
Dozens of Israeli cities are deserted and some 60,000 people have been evacuated to temporary accommodation, leaving empty streets and the occasional building marked by rocket fire. Some 90,000 people have also fled southern Lebanon.
Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence official who heads a think tank specializing in Israel's northern border, said that after the trauma Israel suffered on October 7, few of those who left their homes would be ready to return as Hezbollah remain entrenched along the border. .
“For 17 years, we did nothing against the threat and now confronting it will cost a very high price,” Zehavi said.
