Humanity is ignoring major planetary vital signs as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels soar to record highs and Earth records its 12th consecutive month of record heat, international climate officials warned this week.
At 60.63 degrees Fahrenheit, the global average temperature in May was a record 2.73 degrees higher than the pre-industrial average against which warming is measured, marking a stunning, year-long hot streak that shows few signs of slowdown, according to the European Institute. European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“Over the past year, every calendar change has raised the temperature.” António Guterres, secretary general of the United Nations, during a speech in New York on Wednesday. “Our planet is trying to tell us something. But it seems like we're not listening. We are breaking global temperature records and reaping the whirlwind. It is the time of the climate crisis. Now is the time to mobilize, act and deliver.”
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According to the Copernicus service, May was also the 11th consecutive month of warming above 2.7 degrees, the Fahrenheit equivalent of the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius aimed at reducing the worst effects of climate change.
Not only was it a warm month, but the global average temperature for the past 12 months (June 2023 to May) was the highest on record, 2.93 F above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
A pedestrian holds an umbrella to protect himself from the sun in Bangkok, Thailand, last month.
(Sakchai Lalit / Associated Press)
Guterres said the world is warming very quickly and releasing such a considerable amount of CO2 emissions that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target “hangs by a thread.”
“The truth is that global emissions must fall 9% each year through 2030 to keep the 1.5 degree limit alive, but they are going in the wrong direction,” he told a crowd at the American Museum of Natural History. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet and need a highway off-ramp to climate hell.”
In fact, it's not just global temperatures that are rising. Carbon dioxide levels, a major driver of global warming, are also reaching new highs.
Recent readings were 427 parts per million, the highest ever recorded in the month of May, according to Ralph Keeling, CO director.2 program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.
Carbon dioxide does not provide heat directly, but the greenhouse gas (which comes from extracting and burning fossil fuels) increases the atmosphere's ability to trap heat that would otherwise be released into space.
CO2 Readings have been measured primarily at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1958, when they began under the direction of Keeling's father, Charles. The CO accumulation graph.2 The levels, known as the Keeling curve, have been rising steadily since then.
But the planet is not only seeing a record of CO2 levels – is also seeing record gains, Keeling said.
The monthly average of CO2 The concentration recorded in March was 4.7 parts per million higher than the March 2023 reading, breaking the previous record for year-over-year gain, a jump of 4.1 parts per million from June 2015 to June 2016.
“That number blew the envelope of what we've seen in the past,” Keeling said.
Fossil fuels play the biggest role in the recent record numbers, but El Niño also played a role, he said.
The tropical Pacific weather pattern that arrived last summer is associated with warmer global temperatures, as well as droughts in the tropics and some southern continents. As a result, tropical forests, savannahs and grasslands in those areas tend to wither, die and burn in wildfires, contributing to more CO2 generation.2 emissions.
A shopper escapes the outdoor heat in October as she walks down a flight of stairs at the Asian Garden Mall in Little Saigon in Westminster.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
“We have the largest burning of fossil fuels, but we also had an El Niño event, so the combination set a new all-time record,” Keeling said.
When asked how he feels seeing the graph that bears his name rise so steadily, Keeling said he mostly feels sad. Although there have been considerable advances in renewable energy and other efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions, “we have not yet gained enough ground to reverse the growth,” he said.
“I just feel sad about all the loss that has been happening and will continue to happen because of this,” she said.
During his speech on Wednesday, Guterres said new data shows the maximum amount of CO2 The Earth's atmosphere may need to limit long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is about 200 billion tons. But current emissions are around 40 billion tons per year, indicating that “the entire carbon budget will be destroyed before 2030.”
The 1.5 degree Celsius limit is not just symbolic: every fraction of a degree could mean the difference between extinction and the survival of some small island states and coastal communities, or the difference between minimizing climate chaos and crossing dangerous tipping points. Guterres said.
Consequences of rising global temperatures include the likely collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and resulting sea level rise; the destruction of coral reef systems; the loss of livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people; the collapse of ocean currents that would alter weather patterns in Europe and other parts of the world; and widespread melting of permafrost that would release more heat-trapping methane, among other results, Guterres said.
He said urgent action and global cooperation are needed, and that the 2020s will be the decisive decade. All cities, states and governments must play their part (as do fossil fuel corporations and global financial institutions) with viable transition plans implemented no later than the 2025 UN climate conference in Brazil.
“It is a transformation of society, a transformation of policies and a real redesign of the priorities that we see in the world today,” Guterres said. “Unfortunately, climate change has been the victim of a diversion of attention, public opinions, governments and the media due to the horrible conflicts we are witnessing. …We cannot allow ourselves to be distracted from the existential threat of our times to humanity: climate change.”
The latest broken records come as the western United States prepares for a major heat wave starting this week that could send temperatures soaring into the triple digits.
Parts of California and the Pacific Northwest are expected to experience high temperatures well above average for the time of year, forecasters said: up to 110 degrees in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys, and more than 100 degrees near the northernmost of the state. .
The heat wave is expected to set the stage for a long, hot summer for the vast majority of the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest seasonal temperature forecast, which shows strong chances for warmer-than-normal conditions in almost all states.
Copernicus director Carl Buontempo said the current spell of global heat is “shocking but not surprising.”
“While this sequence of record-breaking months will eventually be interrupted, the general signature of climate change remains and there are no signs in sight of a change in that trend,” he said in a statement.
“We live in unprecedented times, but we also have an unprecedented ability to monitor the climate, and this can help inform our actions,” Buontempo said. “This series of warmer months will be remembered as comparatively cold, but if we manage to stabilize concentrations of [greenhouse gases] “In the atmosphere, in the very near future we could return to these 'cold' temperatures by the end of the century.”
With five months of data already in the books, there's now about a 75% chance that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the planet's hottest year on record, Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said in a post on the site. social networks. x.
As records continue to fall, Hausfather said it also seems likely that June will be the hottest June on record.
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