In a supermarket in Bahrain, Mahmoud Ali fills his cart as usual. The shelves remain stocked despite the war in the Middle East, but the blockade of the main sea routes to the Gulf is now being felt in the checkouts.
“There is no shortage,” but in recent days “a notable increase in the price of some food products has been noticed,” says this father of four children.
In particular, the price of meat has almost doubled, he added.
Like most of its neighbors in this arid region, the small Gulf monarchy relies heavily on imports, especially for its food supply.
But the war, triggered on February 28 by Israeli-American attacks on Iran, has seriously disrupted the transport of goods through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed.
“Most major ports in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have suspended or significantly reduced cargo processing,” said economist Frederic Schneider of the Middle East Global Affairs Council.
Air transport, another logistical pillar of the region, is also operating below capacity due to daily Iranian drone and missile attacks, he added.
Since the main gateways to the Gulf – the ports of Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali in Dubai and Dammam in eastern Saudi Arabia – are almost inaccessible, ships are turning to others located south of the strait in Oman and the Emirates.
Saudi Arabia has also positioned itself as a key supply hub at the heart of the Gulf region, as its airspace remains open and maritime traffic to its Red Sea ports continues.
To address traffic disruption at ports along the Gulf Coast, the kingdom has launched a new initiative to strengthen its transportation networks by adding logistics routes and operational corridors to handle containers and cargo diverted from the country's eastern ports, according to transportation officials.
AFP Journalists recently saw a stream of heavy trucks crossing the border into Qatar.
There are other land alternatives, including road corridors that connect to the Mediterranean through Syria or Jordan.
But these land routes are too congested, expensive and insufficient to compensate for the paralysis of traditional routes, Schneider said.
Fresh products, most of which are imported from Asia and cannot be stored for long, are the first to be affected.
“Tangible risk”
In this situation, the Gulf States are not on an equal footing.
Saudi Arabia has direct access to the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates claims to have four to six months of stock. And Qatar has invested heavily in its strategic reserves, following the three-year blockade imposed by its neighbors in 2017.
Bahrain and Kuwait, on the other hand, already see consumers paying the price of the conflict.
After a supermarket rush in the early days of the war, Kuwaiti authorities froze prices on certain staples and subsidized meat imports.
“Overall, prices have remained stable,” said an official at Kuwait's Ministry of Commerce. AFPspeaking on condition of anonymity.
“But there was an increase of more than 30% for meat and fish,” which were affected by the suspension of fishing in the Gulf and the cessation of imports from Iran, India and Pakistan, he said.
The private sector is also trying to contain the impact of the blockade.
The Lulu retail chain, which has 280 supermarkets in the region, said it maintains reserves of non-perishable products for four to six months and has contracted special flights to transport fruits, vegetables, meats, seafood and poultry.
So far, “37 special charter flights have brought more than 6,000 tonnes of fresh produce,” explained its communications director, V Nandakumar. AFPadding that the additional cost “will not be passed on to the consumer from now on.”
According to Schneider, “there is a certain level of preparation and prices are high, but for the moment they are under control.”
However, “as the war does not seem to end soon, there is a tangible risk of spiraling prices for imported products, particularly food,” he added.
