Former President Trump narrowly leads President Biden in six of the seven states considered key in this year's electoral rematch, an advantage driven by the perception that the Republican rival would do a better job controlling inflation, according to a poll released Thursday .
Trump's overall lead in the seven states is 47% to 44%, a margin that grows to five percentage points in a five-way race that includes independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and the independent Cornel West, according to the Swing State Survey, supervised by the Cook Political Report and two polling companies.
Trump's lead in the head-to-head race is modest: equal to or less than the margin of sampling error in four of the states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The former president has a larger lead in Nevada and North Carolina, 9% and 7%, respectively, while the two are tied, 45% to 45%, in Wisconsin, according to the poll.
While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in the second half of 2022, many voters remain concerned about high prices. Cook's poll found that a significant majority of voters believe Biden has control over inflation. But only 40% in the seven swing states believe prices would be under control if he wins a second term, while 56% said they believe a Trump presidency would usher in lower inflation.
Biden has an advantage among voters because of his support for abortion rights, but the poll showed that more voters are focused on economic issues. When nearly 4,000 voters in the seven states were asked which worried them more, whether Biden was overseeing economic policy or Trump was setting abortion policy, 55% said they were more concerned about Biden handling the economy than Trump setting a policy on abortion (45%).
“At this point… the defining issue of this race is a more traditional one: the economy,” Amy Walter, editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis of the results.
“While abortion remains an important issue for Democrats, President Biden's lead on this issue is not strong enough to offset Trump's overall strength in lowering the cost of living,” Walter wrote. “Biden's overall weak standing, combined with voters' deep concern about rising costs, is currently limiting his ability to argue that Trump is the biggest risk.”
Both candidates face other challenges: Biden's “age and ability to complete his term” are cited by slightly more potential voters than Trump's “temperament and legal problems,” by a margin of 53% to 47%. Biden is 81 years old, Trump is 77.
“The race is still close because the personal weaknesses of both candidates make it difficult for them to leverage issues that should benefit them,” Walter wrote.
Trump did slightly better in four of the seven key states in a hypothetical race that includes the additional candidates. The Cook poll showed the former president leading in that scenario, 43% to 38%, with 8% for Kennedy.
Joining the Cook Report in conducting the survey were BSG, a polling firm with ties to Democrats, and GS Strategy Group, a firm that works primarily with Republicans. Pollsters reached voters between May 6 and 13. Of those who responded, 85% said they were “absolutely sure” or “very likely” to vote.
