There was a time when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis looked like the Republican Party's best bet to outrun Donald Trump. That moment, on election night in November 2022 and in the few weeks after, passed quickly. Trump took advantage of the spring of 2023 to regroup and regain his dominant position in the party, with a little help from Manhattan Dist. Attorney. Alvin Bragg and Justice Department special prosecutor Jack Smith.
DeSantis hesitated and waited 197 days after his massive re-election victory as governor of Florida to launch his presidential campaign. In May 2023. By then, Trump was back in business in a big way, using his numerous legal entanglements like the drivers of the “Fast and Furious” franchise use nitrous oxide.
During a CNN-produced town hall event on Tuesday, DeSantis said, “If Donald Trump is the nominee, the election will revolve around all of these legal issues, his trials, maybe convictions if he goes to trial and loses there, and about things like January .6.”
He said it as a warning to his Republican colleagues. And he was right. But the disconnect is whether Republican voters really see “all these legal issues” as a problem. It turns out that a referendum on Trump's mistreatment (as voters see it) and subsequent legal problems is exactly the race that most Republicans seem to want this November. Nothing will make them feel better than seeing Trump beat Biden fair and square, a moment of euphoric vindication.
DeSantis correctly observed in his abandonment video that “most Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance. “They saw his presidency hampered by relentless resistance, and they see Democrats using the law to this day to attack him.”
DeSantis and several other candidates have argued from the beginning that Trump can't win if his issues, rather than Biden's myriad issues, are in the spotlight. But national polls (at least now) don't support that. Republican voters seem to have concluded that Biden's weakness means he is destined to lose, so they might as well defeat him with the person who would give them the most personal satisfaction: Trump.
DeSantis faced a major attack. Trump attacked him relentlessly and brutally from start to finish. The “Never Trump” crowd did too. The Democrats did the same. And the political media. DeSantis, for a time, unified a group of people who supposedly hate each other but need Trump-flavored air and water to stay alive. So they joined forces to bury the guy who posed the biggest threat to that ecosystem.
DeSantis helped them, of course, by avoiding the kind of media opportunities that might have allowed him to fend off the most ridiculous attacks he faced. He finally changed course at the end of the race and actually came across as quite smart in the face of the so-called corporate media that he often mocks. But by then the damage had already been done.
DeSantis received more negative attack ads than any other candidate in the race, from either party. As of January 8, he had faced more than 44 million dollars in negative attacks from independent groups. By comparison, Trump and Biden had each faced just $21 million in vitriol.
DeSantis was a technically sound candidate over the past few months, despite the internal drama of his campaign. His public appearances were clear. He delivered solid content at public meetings. He defeated former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in a debate in Des Moines just before beating her in the Iowa caucuses.
But by the time he found his rhythm, it was too late. Trump voters tell pollsters there is nothing that will change their minds. DeSantis' departure leaves one (semi-)serious candidate in the race against Trump: Haley, and she's likely gone sooner rather than later. Trump leads her in New Hampshire polls ahead of Tuesday's primary, and that's the most fertile ground he'll ever find.
This primary has effectively ended and we are in for a long general election campaign between two candidates with significant weaknesses. It's not clear to me who has the advantage, but the revenge that the American people have repeatedly told pollsters they don't want is now upon us.
Scott Jennings is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior political commentator for CNN. @ScottJenningsKY
