They finally caught him.
Not about Russian collusion. Phone calls to Ukraine. January 6 riots. Classified documents. Or bad tweets.
They finally got Donald Trump to file the wrong paperwork to cover up a financial sexual story after all.
Who but Donald Trump could be accused of something like this? As CNN's Fareed Zakaria said a few days ago: “I doubt that the New York indictment would have been brought against a defendant whose name was not Donald Trump.”
It was jarring to hear my CNN colleague Jake Tapper say “guilty” 34 times in a row as the verdicts were announced Thursday afternoon. A historic moment that further divided an already divided nation.
And it was equally jarring to see text after text appear on my phone from decidedly non-MAGA Republicans, but also not Never Trumpers, all with the same note: I don't like this man, and now I think I have to vote. for him.
Lest you think this is just anecdotal or a sign that Scott has weird friends, the Trump campaign reported a flood of online contributions in the minutes after the verdict. crashed your system.
the survey indicates that the guilty verdict will not make much of a difference in the vote of most Americans. But Republicans are angrier than wet chickens that the party's presidential candidate (and, according to polls, probably the next president of the United States—was charged with 34 felonies that few can fully explain, in a very Democratic jurisdiction.
Basically, the prosecution argued that Hillary Clinton could have won if Trump had not paid Stormy Daniels for her silence, then he must be condemned for covering up what amounts to a campaign finance violation for which he was never charged or convicted in the first place. The Justice Department and the Federal Election Commission refused to pursue this novel theory, but it found a home in the Manhattan district attorney's office.
It sounds crazy just typing it out. Having never gone so far as to claim that “Russia stole the election” in 2016, Democrats have moved on to this rationalization that Hillary Clinton's loss is due to Trump paying for the silence of a porn star he allegedly had an affair with. sexual relations in 2006 (Trump supports it). It didn't happen; Daniels says yes).
The consensus in my circle is that this will backfire as Republicans become energized. Even Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, no fan of Trump, tweeted: “These charges should never have been filed in the first place. “I hope the conviction is overturned on appeal.”
I'm looking at two groups of voters after the polls: older people and what we in the political business call “low information flow” voters who consume very little news other than fleeting headlines. Older people still remember “the old days,” when presidents didn't spend all their time in court and low-information voters may never know much beyond that Trump is now a convicted felon.
Biden has strength among older white voters, while Trump does better with disengaged types. If either group moves against Trump, it could lead to a surge in the polls for Biden. I'm not betting on it, but if he were in Trump's command center, those are the people he would be keeping a close eye on over the next few weeks.
The guilty verdict begins an important June for what had become a sleepy campaign. Biden has been stuck in the mud for months, languishing at around a 38% approval rating (historically low), and behind Trump in national and undecided state polls. Voters remain angry at Biden over inflation and immigration. His job approval has not been afloat since August 2021, after the disastrous, chaotic and deadly withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
At the end of June, Biden and Trump will debate in Atlantawith perhaps one unwanted intruder on the stage: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The first step in reviving his troubled campaign was for Biden to get Trump convicted. Step 2 is for Biden to win the June 27 debate.
As of June 1, Trump is winning. What will the story be on July 1? What if, after a condemnation of Trump and a debate, Biden hasn't made any progress in the polls in a month?
If you think Democrats are in panic mode today (which Politico reported this week), prepare for what comes next: prominent party members wondering aloud whether they will replace Biden on the ticket if he can't get ahead of a convicted felon.
For Trump, the message is clear: the only verdict that matters will come from the American people on November 5. And he'll get the boost he's sure to get after the verdict, just as he has after his previous accusations. and legal milestones.
Scott Jennings is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior political commentator for CNN. @ScottJenningsKY
