“Never Gonna happen.”
That's how New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu responded early last year to the prospect of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripping his state of its first-in-the-nation presidential primary.
For more than 100 years, New Hampshire has held the first primary contest in the United States, giving state voters a strong voice in the process through which candidates ultimately receive their party's nomination.
It was such a source of pride that the state even enshrined its status as the oldest primary school in its laws.
But the Democratic Party, at the urging of President Joe Biden, came under pressure to reorganize its primary calendar and move forward in states that better reflected American demographics.
Then, in February 2023, the Democratic National Committee demoted rural, largely white New Hampshire to second place on its primary calendar, behind South Carolina, despite the state's objections.
Now, as the primary season begins on January 23, the Democratic primary in New Hampshire will become a showdown, both between state and national party officials and between the candidates themselves.
The state has refused to give up its first place in the primary, and in response, the DNC has stripped the primary of its delegates, making it purely symbolic. Biden, who likely faces a tight re-election race in 2024, will also not appear on the New Hampshire ballot.
But why is it important to go first? And with this year's primary election expected to confirm Biden as the Democratic nominee, will the uproar in New Hampshire have any effect?
'Reason for pride'
Liz Tentarelli, president of the League of Women Voters of New Hampshire, a nonpartisan group, compares the state's primaries to when “the circus comes to town.”
The national media arrives in droves and candidates tour the state, an area of just over 24,000 square kilometers (9,300 square miles). Many presidential hopefuls hold small town halls and in-person meetings, allowing some of the state's 1.3 million residents to interact directly with the candidates.
“Voting is a point of pride in New Hampshire,” said Tentarelli, a resident of the small town of Newbury, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) northwest of the state capital, Concord. Celebrating the first primary, he explained, is “a big problem.”
“I think it reflects that New Hampshire is the state that is more politically aware than other states,” he told Al Jazeera, pointing to historically high voter turnout in the primary and general elections.
“We are also a small state, which makes it easier for candidates who do not receive massive funding to campaign in the state. “They can go to different cities and have these events, and people come.”
According to Andrew Smith, political science professor and president of the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Poll Center, holding the first primary is first and foremost “culturally and historically important for the state.”
“It's what people in New Hampshire are known for,” he told Al Jazeera. “We never set out to have the first primary. “It kind of happened by accident.”
To save money, the state's first primaries were initially scheduled to coincide with Town Hall Day, an occasion for community gatherings. New Hampshire held its first presidential primary in 1916, but it was four years later, in 1920, when the state began its first tradition in the country.
Since then, Smith said, New Hampshire residents have been willing to “fight” to maintain their state's top spot.
Trump leads, Biden is not on the ballot
However, the 2024 primaries have been more low-key than in previous years, Tentarelli said.
That's largely because political observers expect this year's presidential race to come down to a rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who lost the 2020 election.
Unlike its Democratic counterpart, the Republican National Committee has retained its traditional primary calendar, which began with the Iowa caucuses on January 15 and continues with holding the inaugural primaries in New Hampshire.
Trump remains the favorite in the party's race, with a solid lead both in New Hampshire and nationwide. He also won a decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses.
But one of her Republican rivals, former United Nations envoy Nikki Haley, has been gaining ground in New Hampshire in recent weeks, according to recent polls.
And on the Democratic side, Biden's absence in the New Hampshire primary has highlighted tensions within the party itself. After the state's dispute with the Democratic National Committee over the new primary calendar, Biden did not file paperwork to be on the Jan. 23 ballot.
That schism was further underscored by a tense exchange between state officials and representatives of the Democratic National Committee.
In a letter last week, obtained by Politico, the Democratic National Committee's Bylaws and Rules Committee called the Jan. 23 primary “harmful,” “non-binding” and “meaningless” for Democrats.
The letter reiterated that New Hampshire's vote could not be used to elect Democratic Party delegates, who represent the state in choosing the party's candidate for the general election.
New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella responded on January 8, calling the Democratic National Committee's comments “false, misleading and deceptive.” He also warned that any attempt to dissuade primary voters could constitute a violation of state law.
Biden has also not campaigned in the state, leaving long-shot Democratic candidates like author Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips an opportunity to post better-than-expected primary results.
Williamson and Phillips “have made some appearances, but they haven't generated much interest this year because we know they're long shots,” Tentarelli said. He added that among Democratic voters, “I think there is a sense of annoyance that Biden is not on the ballot.”
Yet despite the current rift between state and national party officials, some top New Hampshire Democrats have backed a grassroots effort asking voters to write the president's name on their primary ballots.
“While the Democratic National Committee's misguided rules are leaving Joe Biden off the primary ballot here, New Hampshire Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents overwhelmingly support Joe Biden and plan to include him,” the Democratic National Committee website reads. the Granite State Write-In campaign.
About 65 percent of the state's likely Democratic primary voters said they planned to write in the president's name, according to a mid-November poll by the UNH Poll Center.
“Support for Biden has declined since September, but no strong rival has yet emerged,” according to the poll, which shows only 10 percent support for Phillips and 9 percent for Williamson.
Meanwhile, a December poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center showed Biden would beat Trump by 10 percentage points in New Hampshire in a hypothetical general election.
The center noted that Trump faces a “looming problem” in the state: Supporters of his Republican rivals Haley and Chris Christie, who recently dropped out, would rather back Biden than Trump if the two face off.
Expectations and momentum
Experts who spoke to Al Jazeera said sitting out the New Hampshire primary will have little effect on Biden's ability to secure the Democratic nomination, or his general election chances.
“I think by November, most voters will have forgotten about the primary, and it's a whole new ball game,” Tentarelli said.
Raymond Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, echoed that sentiment. He said he doesn't expect the primary dispute to affect the general election.
“We will still be ready for November and have a great year,” Buckley told Al Jazeera. He added that while Biden's absence at the polls was “disappointing,” Democrats still expect a “strong turnout” in the New Hampshire primary.
Asked if Biden would have to answer for his decision to forego the New Hampshire primary in his general election campaign, Buckley said it is still “a long way off.”
“I'm sure there will be some brainstorming about what that message will be, and I look forward to hearing it,” he said.
Still, Dante Scala, a political science professor at UNH who has watched the state's primaries for more than two decades, said that if he were a member of the Biden campaign, he would be trying to downplay expectations ahead of the primary vote. on January 23.
This is because a disappointing performance could generate scrutiny over whether “there is [is] something to do with the idea that the Democratic base is really not enthusiastic about Biden.”
“That has been an on-again, off-again story for months,” he told Al Jazeera. “Like, 'Wow, a lot of Democrats say Biden is too old.' Many Democrats say, “I wish we had other options.” and now really [will] see some results.”
New Hampshire's importance does not lie in the number of delegates it has, Scala said. Of the thousands of delegates scheduled to appear at the Democratic National Convention, New Hampshire will only send about 33.
But Scala explained that the New Hampshire primary plays an important role in helping presidential candidates gain or lose steam in the campaign.
“The importance of New Hampshire is that we are the stage where candidates audition. And they're not just auditioning in front of us anymore, they're auditioning in front of the entire nation,” she said.
For his part, Smith, a UNH political science professor, said the power of the New Hampshire primary is largely tied to “the story that is told in the media about what happened.”
If “the story coming out of New Hampshire is that President Biden loses in New Hampshire or is nearly defeated by an unknown congressman from Minnesota, well, that's going to be a very difficult narrative to change,” he said.
“Because we're already seeing that a significant number of Democrats in New Hampshire and across the country wish they had someone else as their candidate, but they don't.”
