Macron calls early elections after EU setback: What is at stake for France? | Emmanuel Macron News


Hit by a defeat in European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday dissolved the country's parliament and called for legislative elections later this month.

Here's what you need to know about what's next and why it's important:

What happened in France?

Voters in France dealt a blow to Macron in Sunday's elections to the European Parliament.

Preliminary results showed that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won more than 30 percent of the vote, compared to 14.5 percent for the French president's Renaissance (RE) party.

Renaissance narrowly escaped third place, finishing neck and neck with the center-left, which took 14 percent of the vote.

The European elections offer almost 370 million Europeans the opportunity to cast their vote and elect representatives to the European Parliament. At the same time, their choices are seen to reflect their feelings toward national political parties in a manner similar to an internal vote.

Why did Macron dissolve the National Assembly?

The French leader has consistently backed the 27-nation European Union (EU), but with changing political sentiments, many French citizens now appear less inclined towards the bloc.

According to analysts, much of this has to do with discontent over issues such as immigration, crime and the cost of living.

“For me, who has always considered that a united, strong and independent Europe is good for France, it is a situation that I cannot accept,” Macron said on Sunday.

“The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger to our nation. And also for the position of France in Europe and in the world,” she added.

According to Jacques Reland, senior researcher at the Global Policy Institute, Macron's decision to seek early elections is a call from him to French citizens to make a decision.

“'Are you willing to vote for a party that will undermine Europe, or do you believe that France is stronger in a stronger Europe?' “That's the message, that's the point that he will try to get across to the French people,” Reland said.

French President Emmanuel Macron, seen on a screen at the headquarters of the far-right National Rally party, speaks after the polls close during the European Parliament elections on Sunday, June 9, 2024. [Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters]

Analysts say Macron could be betting on giving Le Pen's party a chance to partially govern the nation before the 2027 presidential election, in the hope that it will lose some of its luster by then.

A defeat in the next legislative elections will not oust Macron from office. If his party loses, he would have to appoint a new prime minister from the opposition, including, possibly, from the National Rally.

“I think their bet is that Le Pen's party will win these elections and then [someone from her party] “I must become prime minister under his leadership until 2027,” said Olaf Bohnke, Berlin director of the nonprofit Alliance of Democracies Foundation. “In a way, wait [they will wear out] …and be less favorable to the electorate.”

If Macron's party loses the election, the new prime minister would be responsible for selecting cabinet ministers, leading to a situation known as cohabitation.

What is a coexistence?

With three years remaining in Macron's presidency, his influence over domestic affairs will diminish significantly in this scenario.

He will retain the main role in defense as commander in chief and in foreign policy (the Constitution says he negotiates international treaties), but he would lose the power to set domestic policy.

There have been three previous political coexistences in France.

This last occurred in 1997, when President Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament thinking he would win a stronger majority, but unexpectedly lost to a left-wing coalition led by the Socialist Party.

Socialist Lionel Jospin was prime minister for five years, during which time he passed a law on the 35-hour work week.

What would coexistence with Le Pen's party be like?

Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's telegenic 28-year-old protégé and leader of the National Rally, had previously been discussed as a possible prime minister should Le Pen become president in 2027.

Le Pen, in her 2022 presidential manifesto, advocated prioritizing access to social housing for French citizens, processing asylum applications outside of France, and eliminating the inheritance tax for middle-class and low-income families. .

Macron is a staunch Europhile, while Le Pen and her party dream of dismantling the EU from within. A cohabitation between a pro-European president and a Eurosceptic nationalist party would be uncharted territory for France.

Frenchman Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally.
French politician Jordan Bardella addresses members of the National Rally party after the polls closed during the European Parliament elections. [Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters]

What has been Le Pen's reaction?

Le Pen celebrated the victory and praised Macron's response.

“We are prepared for it,” he said.

“We are ready to exercise power if the French people place their trust in us in these future legislative elections. “We are ready to change the country, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to end mass immigration, ready to make the purchasing power of the French a priority,” Le Pen added.

Marine Le Pen, president of the parliamentary group of the French far-right National Rally party (Rassemblement National - RN), addresses party members after the polls closed during the European Parliament elections.
Marine Le Pen addresses party members [Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters]

When will the early elections take place in France?

Parliamentary elections are held in two rounds. These will take place on June 30 and July 7.

Candidates will run for 577 seats in France's parliament or National Assembly.

Any number of candidates can participate in the first round in each district, but there are specific thresholds to advance to the second round. Normally, the second round includes the two best candidates. The candidate who obtains the most votes in the second round is elected.

If a candidate receives an absolute majority and a total vote greater than 25 percent in the first round, he or she will be elected without the need for a second round.

Paris is also scheduled to host the next Olympic Games starting at the end of July. The political turmoil in France will not affect preparations for the sporting spectacle, International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach said on Monday.

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