Rep. Katie Porter, famous among Democrats for grilling powerful corporate tycoons and right-wing ideologues who testify before Congress, faces a serious risk of falling short in Tuesday's California primary, ending her bid to win. the Senate of the late Dianne Feinstein. seat in the autumn general election.
Coupled with a once-formidable campaign account depleted by her difficult 2022 re-election bid and expected low voter turnout, the Irvine congresswoman must surpass the millions of dollars that her Democratic rival, Rep. Adam B. Schiff, of Burbank and their allies, have spent to boost Republican candidate Steve Garvey. , the former Dodgers All-Star first baseman.
If Garvey and Schiff win the top two spots in California's open primary, the two would be the only candidates advancing to the November general election, with Schiff the heavy favorite due to California's strong Democratic tilt. Political experts say Schiff's strategy to shore up Garvey is largely driven by the threat he would face in a one-on-one matchup against Porter in the fall election.
“She would give him a great run in the general election; he would look like the Washington, D.C., establishment, an insider, and she could have contrasted herself with him,” said Republican strategist Kevin Spillane, who is undecided in the race. “That's quite remarkable. “Schiff is working harder than Garvey himself to get Garvey into the second round.”
Spillane said he couldn't remember anyone spending so much to boost a Republican candidate at the state level since then-GOP gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman in 2010. The ad campaigns portray Garvey as a loyalist to former President Trump and the biggest political threat to Schiff. , an effort that was largely expected. to increase the former Dodgers first baseman's appeal among Republican voters.
The strategy is driven in part by California's primary system approved by voters more than a decade ago, which allows only the two candidates who receive the most votes to advance to the general election, regardless of their political affiliation.
But this year's Senate race — a rare open seat for a Californian in the nation's highest legislative body — is also shaped by the backgrounds and personalities of the top Democrats in the race.
Schiff and Porter are liberal Democrats, prodigious fundraisers and well-known voices among cable news viewers across the country, but a contest between them in the general election would be very different from their current primary battle.
Schiff, who was elected to Congress as a moderate in 2000, has won over most of the Democratic establishment leadership, starting with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco). He is now best known to many voters as the director of Trump's first congressional impeachment trial over foreign interference in the 2020 election and his vocal role in the 2021 House investigation into Trump's responsibility for the September 6 insurrection. January at the United States Capitol.
Rep. Katie Porter, right, leaves with her son, Luke Hoffman, 18, a first-time voter, after casting her ballot at a polling station at the University Hills Community Center on Saturday in Irvine.
(Ringo Chiu / For The Times)
Although Porter's voting record is virtually identical to Schiff's, he has honed a populist veneer, criticizing corporate leaders during congressional oversight hearings and focusing on issues such as income inequality. The former UC Irvine law professor's background as a minivan-driving single mother also appeals to moderate voters in her closely divided suburban Orange County congressional district.
“Part of her personality is that she is authentic. I think she is trying to connect with normal voters who are facing the same issues that she faces and that she talks about as a single mother,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “That's part of her appeal and could lead to moderate support in the general.”
Porter's positioning, combined with the fact that Schiff is among the most prominent anti-Trump faces in the country, could boost Porter in a general election race because he could win over anti-Schiff Republican voters, he added.
“I don't think she has built a wall against her with the Republicans like he has because he has been such a prominent figure as an impeachment leader. That helped him [in the primary] but that is a double-edged sword” in the general election, Kousser said.
However, Porter's prospects of making it to the November election are uncertain at best. A new poll has her in third place in the primary, and early voting results show slow turnout among voters most likely to support her, compared to Schiff and Garvey.
Garvey and Schiff are statistically tied for the top two spots, according to a poll released Friday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies and the Los Angeles Times. Among likely primary voters, Garvey received 27% support, while Schiff won 25%, within the poll's margin of error. Porter received 19% support and Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland got 8%. Just over 1 in 10 support other candidates, while 9% declare themselves undecided.
Mail-in votes already cast favor Garvey over Porter.
Although there are many more registered Democratic voters in the state than Republicans, Republican voters have cast a higher proportion of their votes, 15% compared to 13% for Democrats as of Friday, according to a vote tracker run by PDI, a highly respected political organization. data company serving Democratic and nonpartisan candidates.
Paul Mitchell, a veteran Democratic strategist who is vice president of the PDI, expects low voter turnout in the election, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm driven by the reality that President Biden and Trump have all but clinched their parties' presidential nominations. .
“It's just an uninteresting national vote,” Mitchell said.
Low turnout would help Garvey, as Republicans appear to have a higher propensity to cast their vote in the primary. Furthermore, if, as multiple polls suggest, Republican voters have consolidated behind Garvey while Democrats are divided among several candidates, that alone could be enough to help Garvey win one of the top two spots on Tuesday.
Additionally, young people and voters of color, who are more likely to support Porter in the Senate race, vote much less frequently than older white voters, according to the data.
One caveat is that Tuesday is the first presidential primary California has held since it began mailing ballots to all registered voters during the pandemic.
“It's still too early to know about turnout, but it's obviously not trending very high. But today every voter gets a ballot,” said Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin, who is not involved with any candidate in the race. “I sure hope turnout will be lower, but it's still too early to say how low it will be. Porter seems to be in a difficult situation, but I think there is still a chance that he can pull through.”
But she added that Porter's challenges are compounded by how much Schiff has outperformed her in this race and how much he had to spend in his hard-fought 2022 congressional re-election campaign.
While both were among the most prodigious fundraisers in Congress, Schiff entered the race with much more money and has since raised more than Porter.
More than $65 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive Senate race in California history, according to data company AdImpact. The firm tweeted Friday morning that 60% of Schiff's television ads mention Garvey.
Most of these funds have been spent by Schiff and his allies, including independent expenditure committees funded by Native American tribes and cryptocurrency billionaires, not only supporting his Senate bid and attacking Porter but also boosting Garvey's profile among Republicans. .
Broadcast and cable stations have been plastered with ads about the race, including a message from Schiff about Garvey aired on Fox News, even though the candidate called for a boycott of advertising on the cable station because of its false reporting on the 2020 elections.
Speaking on MSNBC in 2023, after entering the Senate race, Schiff referred to “people who continue to advertise on stations that deliberately publish lies and deliberately undermine our elections. They also become guilty of this.”
In the last week, Schiff's campaign spent $390,152 highlighting Garvey's candidacy on Fox News, according to Democratic media buyer Sheri Sadler, who does not work for any candidate in the race.
Schiff's campaign declined to comment on the candidate's efforts to boost Garvey.
A spokesman for Garvey said the Republican's improvement in the polls was the result of Californians “reacquainting themselves” with the retired player and learning about his priorities.
“With Adam Schiff's aggressive campaign against Garvey and the latest primary election results, our predictions are proving accurate,” said spokesman Matt Shupe. “Garvey's half-century bond with Californians transcends politics and will prove to be a formidable force in both the primary and general elections.”
Porter's campaign did not respond to a request for comment, but the candidate has repeatedly raised funds from the Schiff campaign's focus on Garvey.
“If I advance to the general election, there is a good chance we will win that race,” Porter wrote in one of four emails sent to supporters on Thursday. “That's why super PACs and Schiff's campaign are doing everything they can to stop it from moving forward, and I'm not going to lie to you: His plan could work.”
