A delegation from the Palestinian group Hamas landed in Cairo on Saturday evening to “listen to the results of the negotiations held so far” between the mediators – Egypt, Qatar and the United States – and Israel.
Observers are reluctant to call this a hopeful sign as there is growing concern that ceasefire talks in Gaza between Hamas and Israel are on the verge of collapse.
Negotiations in one form or another have been ongoing virtually since Oct. 7, the day Israel launched a war on Gaza that has killed more than 40,000 people and destroyed most of the Strip, apparently in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack on Israel that killed 1,139 people and took more than 200 prisoners.
A deal appeared close in May when the United States said it had a draft proposal approved by all parties and endorsed by the UN Security Council on June 10.
Last minute failures
Hamas accepted the proposal, stressing that it wanted the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza, the return of people to their homes in northern Gaza from which they had been expelled, an international commitment to rebuild Gaza and the release of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Israeli officials continued to make statements indicating that the war in Gaza must continue, and the Israeli military invaded Rafah.
The US, however, maintained that Israel had accepted the proposal and that the obstacle was Hamas, which was delaying any progress.
Just when it seemed a ceasefire agreement was within reach, it disappeared.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained his rhetoric of continuing to fight until “Hamas is completely defeated in Gaza,” a goal that parties on both sides have long called unrealistic.
Finally, it also presented new demands: that Israel remain in the Philadelphia Corridor, adjacent to the Egyptian Sinai, that checkpoints be established to “verify” people trying to return to their homes in northern Gaza, and that full lists be provided of all living captives Hamas intends to release.
Senior Israeli officials said Netanyahu's demands would sabotage the talks and mediators refused to pass them on to Hamas.
Egypt has rejected Israel's demand to be allowed to remain in the Philadelphia Corridor, which would violate the Camp David Accords between the two.
Blinken's rhetoric
The U.S. proposal followed earlier drafts and stuck to a three-phase process that would release all captives in Gaza in exchange for prisoners held by Israel, achieving a “sustainable calm” leading to a full ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, the rebuilding of the Strip and the eventual opening of the crossings.
“We had a proposal that [US President Biden] It was presented at the end of May, was quite detailed and was approved in the UN Security Council as a resolution. [with] “We have a lot of global support,” said Matt Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC.
“However, we have seen several rounds of new conditions added by Netanyahu, who, despite Biden saying Israel supports them, made it very clear that he did not.”
Israeli negotiators criticized Netanyahu for undermining the talks after a local broadcaster reported comments he made that Israel would not abandon the Philadelphia Corridor or Netzarim — which the Israeli military created to separate north and south Gaza — “under any circumstances.”
U.S. officials have been in the region trying to resolve sticking points in recent days with a “bridge proposal” that reportedly includes withdrawal plans.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however, did not say whether the proposal includes a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, as mentioned in previous proposals, but stood by his earlier assessment of who was holding things up.
“In a very constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today, he confirmed to me that Israel supports the proposal to establish a bridge,” Blinken told reporters after a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Netanyahu on Monday. “The next important step is for Hamas to say ‘yes.’”
Blinken's remarks were rejected by Hamas, which said it wanted to uphold the agreed deal.
“The Israelis have backed away from the issues included in Biden’s proposal. Netanyahu’s statements about accepting an updated proposal indicate that the US administration has failed to convince him to accept the previous deal,” Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera on Monday.
And while Blinken has maintained publicly that Netanyahu is on board with the deal, Israeli media have reported that things are playing out differently behind the scenes.
US supports Netanyahu 'for unexplained reasons'
The Biden administration's continued support for Netanyahu, despite his apparent obstinacy, has left many analysts baffled.
“We are in this surreal situation where both Hamas and Israeli security officials are saying that Netanyahu is the one blocking Biden’s ceasefire proposal,” Mohamad Bazzi, director of Near Eastern Studies at New York University, told Al Jazeera.
“We also see that Netanyahu publicly rejected key elements of the ceasefire as Blinken has described the agreement… but at the same time both [US President Joseph] Biden and Blinken insist that Netanyahu supports the current deal and that Hamas is the obstacle.
“So we end up with the US administration covering up for Netanyahu for unexplained reasons.”
Although Israel's stated goal for the talks is to reclaim captives in Gaza, Netanyahu's alleged sabotage of the talks has raised questions about whether he is really interested in a deal.
According to Israeli government estimates, some 109 captives remain in Gaza and US officials believe half of them are still alive.
Families with missing loved ones in Gaza have been protesting periodically and calling on their government to save the captives.
“There are very strong arguments to be made that Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire at this point,” Bazzi said. “In many ways, why would he want one when the United States will not impose any costs on him for being the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire?”
'Condemned'
Biden and his administration have criticized Netanyahu in the past.
In April, Biden said Netanyahu was making a mistake in his handling of the Gaza war.
Then, in early June, Biden suggested that Netanyahu was prolonging the war for personal and political gain.
Despite criticism, the Biden administration has refused to condition its support for Netanyahu's government.
“Biden has two very important levers, the main one being the withholding or conditioning of military aid and the second being political cover in the UN Security Council and other international bodies… and he does not seem to use them,” Bazzi said.
The lack of accountability between Netanyahu and Israel has raised questions about US responsibility for the destruction of Gaza.
“Biden is completely complicit in this war that would not have been possible in the first place … without the full support and cover of the United States,” said Gilbert Achcar, a professor of development studies and international relations at SOAS University of London.
“These negotiations were doomed from the start… it is basically a waste of time,” Achcar said.
“The Biden administration’s role is more to try to show that it is doing something. But I think they know very well that this is not going to lead anywhere because the gap between what Netanyahu wants and what Hamas is asking for is too big to be overcome.”
