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Is Burkina Faso on the brink of another coup? | Conflict news


Recent shootings, first at the presidential palace and then at the site of a public broadcaster, in the capital, Ouagadougou, are fueling suggestions that Burkina Faso could be approaching another riot, amid a growing security crisis in the country.

Military leader Captain Ibrahim Traore, or “IB” as he is called locally, promised to protect the fighting-ravaged West African country, hold elections and speed up the country's transition to democracy when he first took power in a coup. state in 2022. The coup followed earlier military takeovers in neighboring Mali and Guinea.

However, in early June, Traore announced a five-year extension of the transition, citing continued insecurity in the country's northeastern regions, where the army is fighting two armed groups that now control almost half of Burkina Faso. Critics have accused Traore of using security challenges to try to extend his power.

But recent events have raised questions about its control and what Burkina Faso's government could do to defend itself against any internal threats, analysts say.

What happened on June 11?

Amid ongoing heavy fighting in the country with armed groups linked to Al Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS), an analyst in Ouagadougou who requested anonymity said a devastating loss for Burkinabe troops in June has amplified feelings of dissatisfaction in the army towards Traore's government.

On June 11, fighters from Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched attacks on forces stationed at a military base in the village of Mansila, near the border with Niger, in the northeastern region of Burkina Faso.

Dozens of soldiers died in the offensive: 107, according to JNIM statements this week. Analysts said it was one of the worst setbacks, in terms of losses, the army has suffered since fighting first spread from neighboring Mali in 2015.

In several videos shared online by JNIM propaganda accounts, the group's fighters can be seen dressed in military uniforms and perched on motorcycles, pointing firearms at the military base. About seven Burkinabe soldiers are believed to have been captured. JNIM's videos also showed the group displaying their battle loot: a number of Kalashnikov rifles, hundreds of bullets and dozens of other military-grade weapons.

the television station

The country was still recovering from that loss when, around 3:00 p.m. on June 12, gunshots were heard around the facilities of Radio Television de Burkina (RTB), the national television station in Ouagadougou. The station is near the presidential palace, where Traore was meeting a council of ministers at the time.

Public broadcasting stations are often the first targets of rebels during coups, as this is where new leaders have traditionally announced they have taken power.

In an RTB video report and online photographs, cars on the station premises appeared to be riddled with bullet marks and there were signs of a projectile that landed on the premises. Two people suffered “minor” injuries and were treated and released, authorities said of the attack.

The authorities were silent at first. On Thursday, Traoré visited the station and claimed that it was friendly fire.

“Those who are there to protect them are the ones who unfortunately caused the incident,” he said. “It is part of their duties; When wanting to check a series of things, unfortunately someone (by mistake) shot.”

Previously, on May 17, local media reported shootings around the presidential palace itself. There are few details of that attack, but official statements state that a lone armed person attacked guards stationed at the palace and was quickly subdued.

What has the government said?

Online, rumors of dissent within the military grew after the Mansila attacks, even as government leaders remained silent about the soldiers' killings.

When Traore was not photographed for a few days between June 12 and 14 and made no statement, speculation about his whereabouts increased. An alert from army chief General Celestin Simpore that troops would be ready in their barracks on June 13, and helicopters flying over Ouagadougou that day, added to the uncertainty.

However, on June 14, Traore shared images showing him donating blood at his residence. On Thursday, while speaking on RTB, the military leader refuted mutiny accusations and berated “lying” Western media channels.

“There is absolutely nothing like that,” he said, adding that helicopters flying overhead were carrying reinforcement troops to Mansila. “We are here. We must not listen to these individuals who try to distract people. We are not going to run away. We are not going back, we are not giving up.”

Analysts, however, say major attacks are often precursors to realignments in the military and, therefore, rebellion.

There are also real fears, experts say, that the recent shootings could provoke more extreme reactions from Traore. Since two previous coup attempts were thwarted in September and then in January this year, analysts say Traore has become increasingly tough on those he perceives as enemies – military or civilian.

Dozens of people accused of planning the coups have been arrested, while many soldiers suspected of being involved have been sent on missions abroad, for example.

“It's kind of a 're-education' training model, but when soldiers who criticize you end up being sent to Russia, it doesn't look good,” said analyst Dan Einzega of the U.S.-based Africa Center. of Strategic Studies.

Activists, journalists or politicians critical of the government have also disappeared or been forcibly sent to the front to enlist in the army. A new decree allows the government to recruit anyone over 18, a law that Human Rights Watch and other rights groups have condemned.

Meanwhile, several international media outlets, including French agencies such as RFI and TV5 Monde, have been suspended.

Has insecurity worsened under Traoré?

Yes – say analysts who point to an increase in violence in the country.

Since seizing power in a countercoup, Traoré has distanced Burkina Faso from France, its colonial ruler who has long been an important aid partner and military ally. Last year, some 400 French special operations soldiers withdrew from the country as relations between the two countries deteriorated.

Traoré's supporters, who back his anti-France rhetoric, praise his government for separating the country from the influence of Paris. They point to how military spending has doubled under Traore, the creation of a special rapid support force intended to assist stretched forces in the north, and government offensives with drones and helicopters. The military government has also touted a plan to recruit 50,000 volunteers for the Volunteers for the Defense of the Fatherland (VPD), a self-defense militia that assists the military.

However, critics point out that Traore has ended previous locally-led dialogues with armed groups that resulted in pockets of ceasefires. Deaths doubled last year compared to 2022, with more than 8,000 people killed, according to conflict monitoring group ACLED.

“He has pursued total war,” said Einzenga of ACSS. “There are good ideas behind expanding the capacity of the military, but it must be done in a way that is effective and protects citizens. “Taking negotiations off the table doesn’t seem smart.”

As Ouagadougou moved away from France, it turned toward Russia. Traore has had several calls with President Vladimir Putin and unconfirmed reports say that about 100 fighters from the Wagner mercenary group arrived in the country this week, apparently by plane from neighboring Mali, where military leader Colonel Assimi Goita has become a ” big brother” for Traore. . Some 1,200 Wagner soldiers are fighting armed groups alongside government forces in Mali.

Ulf Laessing, who heads the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told Al Jazeera that Traore's administration had failed to recruit professional soldiers and that many volunteers received only brief training. Some of those who have been forcibly recruited have said they were given weapons with little or no preparation.

“They are somewhat vulnerable to losses and, unfortunately, they are not very efficient. Incidents like this happen almost every day,” he said. “The government is trying very hard, it is buying weapons, it has a military partnership with Russia, but it is not very successful.”

What is the humanitarian situation?

Thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes in the northern and northeastern combat zones, trapped between the army and armed groups. About one in 10 people in the country are now displaced. More than 5,000 schools have closed.

Others cannot afford to flee territories controlled by armed groups. By the end of 2023, some two million people were trapped in 36 villages that are in fact blocked by armed fighters: it is not safe for civilians to go out and food and medicine are barely arriving.

The military too, accused by activists of serious abuses against the rights of residents they consider loyal to their enemies, has cordoned off some areas, effectively stopping commerce.

Most of the displaced have clustered in Djibo, the capital of the northern province of Soum, whose population has grown from 60,000 to nearly half a million people since 2019. The city itself is largely cut off from aid.

Insecurity, combined with high inflation and the harsh Sahelian climate, have raised malnutrition rates. According to Save the Children, around 1.4 million children are expected to face critical levels of hunger in June, when the lean period between harvests begins.

Meanwhile, funding appeals have only attracted a small fraction of the money needed, aid groups say, as Burkina Faso struggles for relevance in countless crises. The Norwegian Refugee Council said in June that the country represented the world's most neglected crisis for the second year in a row.



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